Weekly takeaways, trends and technicalities from the weekend’s action.

In this week’s middle-of-the-road edition of Monday Down South …

  • Brock Bowers’ blistering statistical pace
  • Alabama’s wideouts finally show up in a game that matters
  • Jimbo Fisher defaults on the money down
  • Superlatives and updated power rankings

… and so much more. But first:

Jayden Daniels: ‘Bad ass’ for Heisman

Is any quarterback in America who means more to his team right now than Jayden Daniels? He was arguably the nation’s hottest QB at the end of September, and he only keeps getting hotter by the week.

Given the state of LSU’s defense, that’s largely out of necessity. Anything less, and the Tigers’ season would be in freefall. Saturday’s come-from-behind, 49-39 win at Missouri was the third consecutive game that saw LSU fall behind by double digits in the first half, and in each case that has only marked the beginning of the festivities. Over their past 11 quarters, the Tigers have faced 30 non-half-ending possessions against Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mizzou, and given up points on 20 of them.

Meanwhile, LSU’s offense hasn’t touched the ball at any point in that span with a lead larger than 2 points. In Columbia, Daniels didn’t take a snap with the lead until the 1:02 mark of the 4th quarter.

And yet: Here they are, still clinging to life in the SEC West at midseason, more or less exclusively on the consistency, athleticism and resilience of a quarterback whose head coach described him after the latest comeback — accurately — as “one bad ass.” Daniels’ performance at Mizzou yielded career highs for both pass efficiency (222.2) and Total QBR (97.1), as well as for rushing yards (130). He accounted for 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing), the 5th consecutive game that he’s accounted for 4 or more. And he did much of his best work playing through visible pain following a shot to the ribs.

For the season, he’s occupying rarified air: No. 1 nationally in Total EPA; 2nd in efficiency; 3rd in Total QBR and overall grading by Pro Football Focus. Daniels leads the nation in total offense, leads all quarterbacks with 8.2 yards per carry as a runner (excluding sacks), and has accounted for more touchdowns (23) than anyone except Caleb Williams. Strictly on attempts of 20+ yards downfield — ostensibly the weakest aspect of his game coming into the season — Daniels is pacing the entire FBS in completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns, boasting a perfect 99.9 PFF grade.

For LSU to sustain any plausible shot at its larger goals with 2 high-profile losses already on the books and one of the nation’s most flammable defenses, that’s what it’s going to take over the second half of the season, too: Perfection.

The same goes for Daniels’ plausible but precarious bid for the Heisman. The numbers speak for themselves, but if there’s anything we know about Heisman politics, it’s that the most relevant number is almost always the one in the loss column. In the Playoff era, only 2 quarterbacks have won the award for teams that were not CFP bound (Lamar Jackson in 2016, Caleb Williams in 2022), and only 2 others have even made the trip to NYC as finalists (Dwayne Haskins in 2018, Kenny Pickett in 2021). Although Daniels’ production has exceeded any realistic expectations, since August his odds as the face of a 4-2 team have only gotten longer.

Given his blistering pace over the past month, it’s still too soon to write off Daniels entirely, or LSU as a team. Last year, the Tigers rebounded from a nondescript, 4-2 start to beat Alabama and win the West, a run they’re more than capable of pulling off again if the defense manages to just be average. A repeat trip to Atlanta, followed by a redemptive turn against (presumably) Georgia once they’re there, would make for a more compelling case than any statistical resumé ever could. (It wouldn’t hurt if he stopped putting himself in position to wind up on the losing end of viral collisions on a near-weekly basis, either.) But getting there will require Daniels to continue to carry a flawed team on his slender shoulders, and the margin for error is not moving from zero.

Jermaine Burton: Bama’s new main man?

In most respects, Alabama’s 26-20 win at Texas A&M was every bit as gnarly as the final score and the hostile setting implied. The Tide were sloppy, committing 14 penalties for 99 yards, most of them of the pre-snap variety; one of the ones that wasn’t negated a crucial touchdown in the 4th quarter. (More on that below.) They struggled to protect Jalen Milroe, giving up 5 sacks in the first half alone, or to make any headway whatsoever on the ground, averaging less than a yard per carry with sacks factored in. Milroe served up his 4th interception of the season, on a decision every bit as ghastly as the first 3.

Still, as fraught as it was in almost every other way, in one sense it felt like a breakthrough: Between Jermaine Burton (9 catches for 197 yards, 2 TDs) and Isaiah Bond (7 for 96 yards, 1 TD), Alabama’s receivers made a tangible difference in a game that mattered for the first time in nearly 2 years.

It’s been a while, especially by the lofty standards of Bama wideouts. This is a program that, between 2008 and 2021, had at least 1 future first-round receiver on the roster every year except one (2011), and from 2017-20 usually boasted an entire starting lineup’s worth — the kind of run that’s easy to take for granted until it’s suddenly over. The drop-off was palpable in 2022, especially in big games, when Bryce Young seemed to have more trust in RB Jahmyr Gibbs (a first-rounder to the Lions) and TE Cameron Latu (a third-rounder to the 49ers) than in any of his actual wide receivers. Statistically, it took both of last year’s top wideouts, Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks, to roughly equate to Jameson Williams.

A handful of splash plays aside, that lack of chemistry seemed to carry over to the first turbulent month of 2023. Prior to Saturday, the Tide’s last individual 100-yard receiving game vs. a Power 5 opponent (other than Vanderbilt) was Williams’ 184-yard barnburner against Georgia in the 2021 SEC title game.

For Burton, especially, the leap from part-time vertical threat to every-down focal point has been a long time coming. At Georgia, he broke into the rotation as a true freshman in 2020 but never quite managed to break out. And despite being touted last year as the prospective heir apparent at Bama, he did most of his damage in 2022 against the shallow end of the schedule. His final line in College Station didn’t quite come out of nowhere, but it was close: It essentially matched his production over the first 5 games combined, including his 5 receptions (on 6 targets) on balls thrown 20+ yards downfield.

Is that a sign of things to come on a weekly basis? To be determined, obviously. But for a team still groping for its identity at midseason, maybe it doesn’t have to be. If nothing else, it’s just one more way the Tide have proven they can win when so many of the other ways are breaking down.

4th down bites 12th Man

Bama’s win in College Station didn’t come down to any one play or dramatic momentum swing, but when the Aggies review the defeat, 5 different 4th-down decisions in Crimson Tide territory are going to stick in their craw — each for a different reason:

1. On the game’s opening possession, A&M’s offense drove 56 yards on 6 plays to the Alabama 19-yard line. The Aggies were subsequently stuffed on 3rd-and-1, then threw incomplete on 4th-and-1, coming up empty on a golden early red-zone opportunity

2. With the game tied 17-17 in the 3rd quarter, A&M faced 4th-and-1 at the Alabama 45-yard line; on came the punter, who booted a touchback for a 25-yard net. Bama’s offense took the ensuing possession 80 yards for a go-ahead touchdown.

3. Now trailing 24-17 early in the 4th quarter, A&M faced 4th-and-6 from the Alabama 45-yard line; again, Jimbo Fisher elected to punt.

4. Still trailing 24-17, A&M faced 4th-and-5 from the Alabama 19 following a Crimson Tide turnover. On came the field goal team this time, to cut a 7-point deficit to 4 with a little over 9 minutes left to play. Instead, the ball and the margin went in the opposition direction:

The Aggies caught an enormous break on the return when Alabama’s Dallas Turner, trailing well behind the play, was flagged for an unnecessary blindside block, negating what was effectively the game-clinching touchdown. But the flip in field position still proved costly: Although Texas A&M’s defense held, forcing a punt, the offense immediately surrendered back-to-back sacks on its next possession, the second of which resulted in a safety that extended Alabama’s lead to 9 points with just under 6 minutes to go and Bama due to get the ball back.

5. The big one: Trailing 26-17, A&M connected on what it thought was a quick touchdown strike from Max Johnson to Ainias Smith on its next possession, only to have instant replay intervene to (correctly) rule Smith out of bounds at the 2-yard line. Battling the clock as well as Bama’s stout front seven, the Aggies proceeded to go backward due to a holding penalty and a sack, only to wind up right back where they started following a 13-yard completion on 3rd-and-goal from the 15. Facing 4th-and-goal from the two, needing a touchdown and a field goal to win, Fisher opted to settle for the easy 3 to cut the margin to 26-20 — and, by extension, for a much more difficult journey back to the end zone if the Aggies managed to get the ball back in the dying seconds. (They didn’t, rendering the argument moot.)

Again, none of those plays directly flipped the outcome, or even necessarily represented the wrong decision in the moment. (I have not consulted any analytics, although I’m pretty sure what the models have to say about situations No. 3 and No. 5 — go for it, every time.)

Collectively, though, they added up to an enormous missed opportunity, and reinforced Fisher’s already well-deserved reputation as one of the most reluctant 4th-down decision-makers in the game. Prior to this year, Texas A&M ranked last in the SEC in 4th-down attempts in 4 of Fisher’s 5 seasons as head coach; in 2 of those seasons it ranked last in the entire FBS. On Saturday, the Aggies rolled the dice once, came up empty, and declined to venture out of their shell again as the biggest game of their season slipped from their grasp. When they’re paying you upward of $9 million a year for the express purpose of beating Bama, the benefit of the doubt in those situations is not a perk of the job.

Brock Bowers’ feats of the week

Bowers had 132 yards and a touchdown on 7 catches in Georgia’s 51-13 win over Kentucky, which at this point qualifies as just another day at the office. That marked his 3rd consecutive game in triple digits, and the 10th of his career.

Bowers has always been the kind of highlight-reel, size/speed specimen for whom the numbers seem beside the point, but as we hit the midway point of the regular season, it’s worth putting his surging production into context. Through 6 games, Bowers has accounted for 548 yards on 37 catches — about three-quarters of that coming in just the past 3 weeks — which is already well within the range of a typical All-SEC stat line for a tight end over a full season. (For the record, he is lining more frequently this season as a traditional inline tight end or H-back, compared to his more slot-based role in his first 2 seasons.)

Right now, no other SEC tight end is even halfway to those totals; the closest, Arkansas’ Luke Hasz, is out for the season with a broken clavicle. But why stop at this year? On a per-game basis, Bowers is easily outpacing nearly every SEC tight end of the past decade, including his own underclassman totals in 2021-22:

The SEC single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end belongs to Kentucky’s James Whelan, whose 1,019-yard effort in 1999 remains the only 1,000-yard campaign by an SEC tight end. (Whelan being another player who blurred the distinction a bit in the proto-Air Raid scheme Kentucky was innovating at the time.) Bowers is on pace to join the club in 11 games, break the record in 12, and keep on going in up to as many as 3 more games in the postseason. The single-season UGA receiving record (1,004 yards by Terrence Edwards, 2002) is an even more inviting target in the same range.

Of course, for any of those benchmarks to fall, the Bulldogs have to keep feeding him the ball in large quantities, which goes against their tendency to spread touches thin among the abundance of blue-chip talent on hand. Bowers’ production is all the more remarkable given Georgia’s depth at wide receiver and its commitment to spreading the ball around: 8 UGA players have caught touchdown passes this season, but only Bowers has more than 2. As the offense continues to ramp up, one of the biggest obstacles may be getting a full workload in before garbage time.

Superlatives

The weekend’s best individual performances

1. LSU QB Jayden Daniels. Jayden, please stop taking so many unnecessary hits.

2. Alabama OLBs Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell. Turner and Braswell continued their season-long trail of destruction against Texas A&M, combining for 14 QB pressures (per PFF), 3 sacks, and a highlight reel that’s going to feature much more prominently in the build-up to next year’s draft than anything either puts on paper.

In addition to his pass-rushing prowess on defense, Braswell also made one of the biggest plays of the day on special teams, breaking through the line to block an A&M field goal attempt that would have cut a 24-17 Alabama lead to 4 points following a Bama turnover early in the 4th quarter. The subsequent return briefly looked it was going to go in the books as Braswell’s 2nd touchdown in as many weeks — he also scored on a pick-6 at Mississippi State in Week 5 — until officials flagged Turner, running well behind the play, for a relatively mild but wholly unnecessary cheap shot on an A&M player with no prayer of running Braswell down:

Dangerous? Eh. Dumb, under the circumstances? No question. Instead of a likely game-clinching touchdown, Bama’s offense was subsequently forced to punt the ball right back to the Aggies … at which point the d-line collectively rose to the occasion again: Back-to-back sacks on A&M quarterback Max Johnson yielded a safety, just enough to effectively put the game out reach.

3. Alabama WR Jermaine Burton. Honorable mentions are in order for Jalen Milroe and Isaiah Bond, both of whom turned in career afternoons in a hostile environment. But Burton’s breakthrough is the one the Tide have been waiting the better part of 2 years for, and on a day when the ground game was nonexistent they could not have escaped without it.

4. Georgia QB Carson Beck. Beck took his biggest step yet toward shedding the “game manager” tag against Kentucky, finishing 28-for-35 for 389 yards, 4 touchdowns (to 4 different receivers), and sky-high ratings for both efficiency (205.4) and Total QBR (95.6). Georgia scored on all 6 of its first-half possessions, effectively putting the game to bed at the break; take away Beck’s lone interception, which set up an (irrelevant) UK touchdown in the 3rd quarter, and it was a near-perfect outing against one of the conference’s stingier defenses. The transition from Stetson Benett IV is looking smoother by the week.

5. Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper. Had A&M managed to pull off the upset, headlines would have been reserved for Cooper, the Aggies’ most active defender in defeat with 11 tackles, 3 sacks and a SportsCenter-worthy forced fumble.

As of halftime, it looked like A&M’s ferocious front seven as a unit would be the story for the third week in a row, for making the Crimson Tide look indistinguishable from the woebegone Auburn and Arkansas offenses it swallowed up in Weeks 4 and 5. That didn’t quite hold in the second half — although Bama still couldn’t run the ball to save its life — but there’s no reason going forward to believe the Aggies’ front is going to be anything less than a week-in, week-out problem for every opposing offense they face.

Honorable Mention: Georgia LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who was credited with 7 tackles and 2 sacks against Kentucky. … Mississippi State LB Nathaniel Watson, who recorded 9 tackles, 6 stops, and 2 sacks in a 41-28 win over Western Michigan. … Florida QB Graham Mertz, who finished 30-for-36 for 254 yards and 3 TDs in a 38-14 win over Vanderbilt … Florida RB Montrell Johnson, who added 143 yards rushing on 7.5 per carry. … LSU RB Logan Diggs, who ran for a career-high 134 yards on 5.6 per carry in the Tigers’ come-from-behind win at Mizzou. … Missouri QB Brady Cook, whose 2 interceptions against LSU marred an otherwise stellar, 411-yard, 2-touchdown performance. … His top receiver, Luther Burden III, who hit triple digits for the 5th consecutive game with 149 yards on 11 catches. …Vanderbilt WR Will Sheppard, who went 85 yards against Florida for his 8th touchdown of the season. … And Texas A&M WR Ainias Smith, who accounted for 137 all-purpose yards against Alabama as a receiver and return man. If only he could have made it 138 …

Fat guy of the week …

The edge guys get the glory, but the anchor of Alabama’s dominant front-line effort at Texas A&M was sophomore DT Tim Keenan III. A true nose in the “War Daddy” tradition, the 6-2, 315-pound Keenan clogged interior running lanes while also making his presence felt as a pass rusher, earning partial credit on 2 of the Crimson Tide’s 5 sacks. (That adds up to a single sack in the official box score, but let the record state the big man got home twice.) Altogether, PFF credited him with a team-high 5 stops, which it defines as tackles that constitute a “failure” for the offense based on down and distance. A few more outings like that one, and he has the makings of a rising star.

Catch of the year of the week …

Georgia’s RaRa Thomas, goin’ up:

Thomas, a transfer from Mississippi State, is the 8th Dawg with a touchdown catch this season — a list that does not (yet) include Ladd McConkey or Dominic Lovett, both of whom were second-team All-SEC in 2022.

Obscure stat of the week

Including sacks, Ole Miss held Arkansas to 36 yards rushing on 1.2 per carry in a 27-20 win in Oxford — the worst output by any opposing offense against the Rebels in both categories since 2014. For the Razorbacks, it represented their worst total on the ground since a 2017 loss at Alabama, and their worst per-carry average since… last week, when they managed just 1.1 ypc in a loss to Texas A&M.

Power rankings

Resetting the pecking order after Week 6

1. Georgia (6-0). Poll voters who’d dropped Georgia from No. 1 since the preseason returned home after Saturday’s beatdown of Kentucky, casting 111 of a possible 126 first-place votes for UGA in the updated AP and Coaches’ polls. (Texas’ loss to Oklahoma was a significant development on that front, as well.) If the national championship race boils to to “Dawgs vs. The Field,” I’m still taking the field. Just don’t ask me who I actually expect to beat them. | (Last week: 1⬌)

2. Alabama (5-1). As long as they’re winning, it’s tempting to compare this outfit to the 2014 and ’15 teams that rebounded from September losses to win the SEC and claim the No. 1 seed in the CFP both years. But even if you buy that the quarterback, skill players, and defense are up to it, no Saban-era team has been as shaky as this one on the offensive line, a problem that’s not going away anytime soon. | (LW: 2⬌)

3. Ole Miss (5-1). In keeping with the maxim about a team taking on the personality of its coach, the Kiffin-era Rebels are a chameleon-like bunch that seems to adapt to whatever type of game they happen to find themselves in on any given Saturday — a shootout one week, a slugfest the next. What would it look like if they brought their A-game on both sides of the ball, even once? | (LW: 3⬌)

4. Tennessee (4-1). The Vols are hitting the meat of the schedule with Texas A&M (home), Alabama (away) and Kentucky (away) on deck to round out the month of October. If they’re still clinging to CFP ambitions on Halloween, they can allow themselves to start thinking big about potentially upending Georgia for the East crown on Nov. 18 (in Knoxville). But not before then. | (LW: 5⬆)

5. Texas A&M (4-2). Would Conner Weigman’s presence behind center have been enough to get over the line against Bama? Impossible to say, but if the Aggies finish strong over the second half (or maybe even if they don’t), we can all look forward to being reminded how close it was without him as part of the inevitable preseason hype cycle in 2024. | (LW: 4)

6. LSU (4-2). Between the prolific passing game and the profligate defense there hasn’t been much attention span left over for anything else, but Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs has quietly emerged from a crowded pack at running back. After sitting out the opening-night loss vs. Florida State he has accounted for 100+ scrimmage yards in 4 of the Tigers’ past 5 games. | (LW: 8⬆)

7. Missouri (5-1). The Tigers were one defensive stop Saturday from becoming the talk of college football at 6-0; instead they were demoted to “also receiving votes” purgatory until further notice. Anyway, anybody who was still in the dark about the offense has no excuse anymore. | (LW: 6⬇)

8. Kentucky (5-1). The offense converted just 2-for-11 3rd-down attempts against Georgia and finished with a 15-minute deficit in time of possession — an actually meaningful stat where the Wildcats are concerned. For the season, Kentucky’s is the only offense nationally averaging fewer than 60 snaps per game, coming in at a painfully slow 54.2. | (LW: 7⬇)

9. Florida (4-2). Barring a stunning turn of events against Georgia or Florida State, Billy Napier’s second season in Gainesville is shaping up at the midway point a lot like his first: Just treading water until the talent level improves at some as-yet undetermined point in the future. At least this time they’ll avoid the shame of losing to Vandy. | (LW: 9⬌)

10. South Carolina (2-3). How do Carolina fans feel about watching former prize recruit MarShawn Lloyd fulfill his potential at the other USC? In his first season as a Trojan, Lloyd has averaged almost exactly as many rushing yards per game (86.5) as the Gamecocks have averaged as a team (87.0). | (LW: 10⬌)

11. Auburn (3-2). It’s a battle of the easily movable object vs. the imminently resistible force this weekend when Auburn takes its anemic passing attack into Baton Rouge to face LSU’s beleaguered secondary. If Payton Thorne can’t make some hay against the Bayou Bengals coming off an open date, it might be time to abandon hope. | (LW: 11⬌)

12. Mississippi State (3-3). The Bulldogs’ win over Western Michigan was overshadowed by an apparent shoulder injury to face-of-the-program quarterback Will Rogers, who left the game in the second half; as of Monday morning his status was TBD. The Bulldogs have a veteran insurance policy in Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, plus a well-timed open date this weekend ahead of a couple of must-win road games for bowl eligibility at Arkansas and Auburn. But let’s be real, whatever is left to salvage of this season over the next 6 weeks hinges on getting Rogers back ASAP. | (LW: 13⬆)

13. Arkansas (2-4). Typically a strength, the o-line has been the weakest link in a season rapidly circling the drain. Rocket Sanders’ return from a sore knee has not revitalized the ground game — quite the opposite — and KJ Jefferson has been sacked 20 times over the course of a 4-game skid. | (LW: 12⬇)

14. Vanderbilt (2-5). New logo’s a little dull, but I’m really digging Vandy’s updated color scheme this year. Looks great. | (LW: 14⬌)

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