Everything you need to know about the final weekend of the regular season.

Game of the Week: Alabama (-3) at Auburn

The stakes

If you’re an SEC fan, the Iron Bowl speaks for itself on a visceral level. But for most of the past decade, it also comes with a couple of reliable annual subplots: Alabama’s pursuit of a Playoff berth and the eternal saga of Gus Malzahn‘s job security.

On the former front, this year does feel a little different. Alabama has already been eliminated in the SEC West by virtue of its loss to LSU, making this Iron Bowl the first the Crimson Tide have played without a path to a conference championship since 2011. (Not coincidentally, that was also the last time they lost to an unbeaten LSU.) And while Bama is still very much alive in the national championship race, per the usual, they’re not necessarily in control of their fate, the first time that’s been the case since the 2010 game. Style points have never counted for anything here, even in the years the Tide have scored them. This time around they could be the difference in whether they’re playing in a Playoff semifinal on Dec. 28 or in a consolation game in the Sugar Bowl.

At 8-3, Auburn has no championship ambitions, triggering the mandatory audit of Malzahn’s status as required by state law. Barring a meltdown, Malzahn is (probably) not in danger of getting canned outright. But as the point spread reflects, there is a sense among Auburn fans that this Alabama team is as vulnerable as the Tide have been in a long time or are going to be again anytime soon — they haven’t beaten anyone worth mentioning, haven’t shown the same impenetrable defensive swagger as in the past, and just lost their face-of-the-program quarterback to a major injury. On paper, this Iron Bowl looks as winnable at kickoff as any in Gus’ tenure, and could set the Tiger up for a big 2020 if it comes to pass.

So what does it say about where the program is right now if it doesn’t? That might sound melodramatic, but you know, it’s Auburn confronting a pattern of futility vs. Alabama. Melodrama is the rule. After 8 years of this, the prospect of a ground-up rebuild at Arkansas might begin to sound like peace and quiet by comparison.

The stat: 16.2 percent

That’s the percentage of carries by opposing running backs that Alabama has stopped for a loss or no gain this season, according to Football Outsiders, by far the lowest percentage for a Bama defense in the Playoff era. This is the 5th year in a row the number has fallen from the previous year, and represents the steepest decline yet:

Alabama Defense: % of RB Carries Stopped For Loss or No Gain (FBS Rank)

That goes hand in hand with the general decline of the run defense, once a perennial strength: Through 11 games the Tide are allowing more rushing yards per game (130.9) and per carry (3.7) than any previous defense in Saban’s tenure. The same trend holds vs. SEC opponents (159.0 yards per game, 4.3 per carry) and Power 5 opponents in general.

It’s no secret what’s behind the downgrade: The front 7 was decimated by injuries before the season even began, forcing the Tide to plug in 2 true freshman starters at inside linebacker (Shane Lee and Christian Harris) from the get-go behind a true freshman nose tackle (D.J. Dale); Lee has started all 11 games in the middle of the defense, Harris and Dale all but 1. That was exacerbated by a midseason injury to junior DL LaBryan Ray, leaving his spot to another pair of true freshmen, Justin Eboigbe and Byron Young. The anticipated front seven featuring a healthy Ray, Dylan Moses, Joshua McMillon, and Quinnen Williams — who, remember, left for the NFL with 2 years of eligibility remaining, creating the unexpected vacancy at nose — looks a lot more like the standard-issue Bama fronts that have reigned supreme for the past decade. Eventually the current configuration will, too. But not yet.

Auburn’s ground game hasn’t exactly been a vintage affair, either. The Tigers have had their moments, especially in early wins over Oregon (206 yards on 4.8 per carry), Texas A&M (193 on 4.6), and Mississippi State (217 on 4.8). But leading rusher Boobie Whitlow has been limited over the second half of the season, and the committee approach never found a rhythm in losses to Florida (124 on 3.7 ypc), LSU (130 on 3.9), and especially Georgia (84 on 2.3, half of those yards via Bo Nix). Unless Nix suddenly turns into the second coming of Nick Marshall, the running backs are unlikely to carry the day on their own.

The big question: Just how good is Mac Jones?

Tua Tagovailoa’s understudy is a blank slate, an X-factor, a wild card, pick your analogy. All of them amount to the same thing: We have no idea what’s going to happen because he’s barely played.

Jones might turn out to be a revelation. His first 2 starts against Arkansas and Western Carolina went as smoothly as Alabama could have hoped, with Jones averaging 15.0 yards per attempt with 6 TDs and no INTs in a couple of routine beatdowns indistinguishable from the routine beatdowns administered by Tagovailoa. And while much of that output came via short, safe throws that Alabama’s electric wideouts turned into long gains after the catch, a) That was the case for Tagovailoa, as well, whose production this season depended heavily on YAC; and b) Jones has also flashed some tentative downfield arm strength, including a dead-on 40-yard touchdown strike to Jerry Jeudy vs. Arkansas and a 44-yard heave to Jeudy vs. WCU:

Jones, who came to Tuscaloosa as a borderline 3/4-star recruit, might be closer to the Greg McElroy end of the spectrum than he is to Tua. But of course Alabama won a national championship with Greg McElroy. (And AJ McCarron and Jake Coker.) With the talent around him Jones doesn’t have to be a next-level playmaker himself for Bama to make plays.

Then again, as far as Auburn is concerned starts against Arkansas and Western Carolina are about as meaningful as the garbage-time snaps Jones was taking as Tagovailoa’s backup, which is to say not at all. Rolling into Jordan-Hare with a fledgling QB making his first road start is a dicey enough proposition under any circumstances.

Make it the Iron Bowl, toss a potential Playoff bid into the mix, and there’s absolutely no way of knowing how he or the rest of the offense is going to react.

The verdict:

A popular reference point to Alabama’s situation is Ohio State in 2014 after the Buckeyes were forced to thrust 3rd-string QB Cardale Jones into his first career start in the Big Ten Championship Game. Going into the game, OSU was ranked 5th in the weekly Playoff committee rankings and seemed unlikely to move up even with a win; instead, the subsequent 59-0 rout over Wisconsin was so impressive that the committee opted to nudge Ohio State into the final playoff slot. The rest is history.

In that case, the fact the Buckeyes played their best game of the year after losing not 1 but 2 Heisman candidates behind center was arguably more compelling: The team as a whole was so good it didn’t matter who was taking the snaps. The best-case scenario for Alabama on Saturday is a resounding closing argument that makes the same impression.

The more realistic scenario is a slugfest that harkens back to the first half of the decade. Alabama’s offense has fully adapted to the “speed in space” mindset, so don’t expect Derrick Henry in 2015. But when the going got tough against LSU, the Tide were still able to counterpunch their way back into the game in the 2nd half by letting 230-pound RB Najee Harris be the workhorse he was born to be. If Jones is shaky, a heavier-than-usual dose of Harris between the tackles a good bet. Whether Bama’s offensive line is able to get him very far against Derrick Brown and the rest of Auburn’s NFL-ready defensive front is another story.

Alabama 27, Auburn 17

Texas A&M (+17) at LSU

It took 7 years and 7 overtimes, but last year’s 74-72 marathon in College Station cemented Aggies-LSU as a bona fide rivalry, complete with post-game fisticuffs. Beyond being the highest-scoring game in FBS history, the 2018 edition was above all an exercise in sheer endurance, emotionally as much as physically: Between the end of regulation and the seemingly infinite OT sessions, the outcome was left hanging by a thread for nearly 2 full hours, as the teams played on through a premature victory celebration, multiple controversial calls, and more than a dozen do-or-die plays that could have ended the game but didn’t.

Just watching from the couch as the clock ticked past midnight was an intense, surreal experience that no one who stayed up for it will ever forget, even if they eventually lose track of minor details like which side won. The players and coaches who lived it left a piece of their souls on the field.

Two of those players are Saturday’s starting quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Kellen Mond, who combined to run or pass on 136 of the game’s 197 plays from scrimmage. In retrospect, that was arguably the last time Burrow looked like anything less than a Heisman-level star — although his final, OT-inflated output (370 total yards, 6 TDs) seemed heroic at the time, compared to his typical stat line this year it looks like just another routine day at the office. Texas A&M’s secondary might be the best he’s seen since that night, too, including Alabama’s: The Aggies lead the SEC and rank 6th nationally in pass efficiency D, no small feat for a unit that’s already faced (and largely held its own against) Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm. Add Burrow to the list, and that’s as daunting a murderer’s row of opposing QBs as any college defense should have to deal with in a single year.

The run defense, on the other hand, has not been nearly as consistent, a good omen for the surging Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Since midseason Edwards-Helaire has graduated from role player to a star in his own right, averaging 169.3 scrimmage yards per game over the last six with star turns in LSU’s wins over Florida (134 yards), Auburn (187), and especially Alabama (180), where he put the offense on his shoulders in the fourth quarter. If Burrow and his A-plus wideouts have their usual way against A&M it won’t be nearly that close, but if it is there may not be better back in America to call on to close it out. You know, before things get … weird.

LSU 38, Texas A&M 24

Florida State (+18) at Florida

It’s hard not to feel for a guy like Florida State RB Cam Akers, a former 5-star recruit who has done everything in his power to live up to the hype in a situation that has been stacked against him from Day 1. His true freshman campaign began with FSU’s starting quarterback suffering a season-ending injury on opening night, and ended with the head coach who recruited Akers to Tallahassee leaving for another job before the regular season finale. Year 2 was worse, defined by a nagging ankle injury and a shockingly bad offensive line that seemed to disintegrate on a weekly basis. This year, Akers’ best statistically, has seen the Noles cycle through multiple QBs and send another head coach packing in the wake of a moribund loss to Miami.

Throughout, Akers has been quietly, solidly productive, accounting for 3,257 yards and 33 TDs in 35 career games. Still, it’s tempting to wonder what an immensely talented player — easily the best high school player I’ve seen in person — with his pick of schools could have done if he’d swapped positions with any of his very similar classmates J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift and Travis Etienne at a stable, championship-contending program, rather than a not-yet-sinking ship whose decline was only apparent after he showed up. (Remember, the Seminoles opened 2017, Akers’ freshman year, ranked 3rd in the preseason AP poll off of their 5th consecutive 10-win season the previous year; they finished 7-6 after a 3-6 start, from which they’ve yet to recover.) Saturday could be Akers’ last game in an FSU uniform, pending an obscure bowl game he has no good reason to suit up for, while his peers prep for conference championships and playoff runs.

There are legions of guys like Akers in college football, once-touted prospects whose talent and commitment are never in doubt but who for whatever reason never quite break through. College is a small sample size; he’s considered a mid-round type and ought to have a long, hopefully lucrative career at the next level. At this one, he’s just another gifted player who came and went.

Florida 34, Florida State 20

Georgia (-28) at Georgia Tech

At 3-8, this is more of a “let’s just keep it respectable” kind of Georgia Tech team than a “let’s spring an upset that ruins everything” kind of Georgia Tech team, and for the first time in a decade there’s no possibility of Georgia’s defense melting down against the triple option — under first-year coach Geoff Collins, the Yellow Jackets are just another run-of-the-mill spread attack that ranks dead last in the ACC in scoring. Redshirt freshman James Graham was recruited to be an option QB and his passing numbers reflect it.

The Bulldogs’ actual concerns are strictly related to their health. The injury bug has spared them for most of the season (WR Lawrence Cager and DB Eric Stokes are the only potential starters on the bubble for Saturday) and rivalry or not, a layup win with the SEC Championship Game on deck isn’t the time to push that luck. It would be nice to see Jake Fromm demonstrate some rapport with receivers other than Cager, who sat out last week’s win over Texas A&M due to a separated shoulder and was a non-factor the previous week at Auburn; Fromm’s production has plummeted when his favorite target isn’t on the field, a chief concern in the pending matchup with LSU. But any downfield shots should come early, before the score gets out hand, and once it does they’ll have to suffice.

Georgia 37, Georgia Tech 7

Clemson (-27) at South Carolina

If you haven’t been keeping tabs on Clemson, know that rumors of the defending champs’ vulnerability were greatly exaggerated: Since eking out a 21-20 win at North Carolina on Sept. 28, the Tigers have laid waste to their past 6 opponents by an average margin of 42.8 points per game, the closest call in that run coming in a 45-14 romp over Florida State. After an early spike in interceptions, Trevor Lawrence now owns the longest active streak of any FBS passer without a pick and the best passer rating in the nation since Oct. 1. At 8.7 yards per carry, junior RB Travis Etienne leads the nation and is well within reach of the FBS record for career ypc average. They rank among the top five nationally in both total and scoring offense and total and scoring defense, joined only by Ohio State. Et cetera. I could go on.

Sure, it is broadly true that, with the exception of Texas A&M in Week 2, the Tigers ain’t played nobody, Paawl. When it comes to sizing them up against other Playoff-level contenders over the next few weeks the ongoing decrepitude of the rest of the ACC will be a factor. Against a 4-7 South Carolina outfit that’s lost 4 of its past 5 games and scored 1 touchdown in its past 2, expect more of the same.

Clemson 44, South Carolina 13

Ole Miss (+2.5) at Mississippi State

Much is made these days about how intensely these teams and fan bases hate each other, but most of the loathing this time around is of the self-directed variety. The good times in this rivalry seem like a long way off: Since the start of October the Rebels and Bulldogs are a combined 2-8 vs. SEC opponents — the 2 wins coming at the expense of Vanderbilt and Arkansas, respectively — as bowl prospects have withered and both fan bases have soured on their head coach. For Mississippi State, a loss would clinch its first losing record since 2009, Dan Mullen’s first season in Starkville, and deepen the feeling that under Joe Moorhead things are going in the wrong direction.

Still, hate is hate, and there’s enough firepower on these offenses — namely Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee and Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill, 2 of the league’s most productive and entertaining runners — to keep a national audience from nodding off with a lapful of leftovers. Putting the ball in the air is … more of an adventure, which means a true shootout is probably too much to ask. (I’d also be surprised if anyone actually winds up getting fired or bailing for another job in the aftermath, which lowers the temperature a bit. Unless I’m wrong!) But if the combination of a tight point spread, in a series with a track record of being evenly matched and unpredictable, in front of a cowbell-wielding crowd that spends much of the year stewing in a gumbo of petty and obscure parochial grudges doesn’t add up to good family fun on Thanksgiving, I don’t know what does.

Ole Miss 33, Mississippi State 31

Louisville (+3) at Kentucky

I’m not sure what the odds were at the beginning of the season that both of these teams would come into the finale with bowl eligibility already sewn up, but they certainly would have been worth taking. At 7-4, Louisville has easily exceeded expectations under first-year coach Scott Satterfield, relegating last year’s 2-10 collapse to a distant memory pretty much overnight. For its part, Kentucky has rebounded from a 1-4 start in SEC play and multiple injuries at quarterback to win 3 of its past 4 behind dynamic WR-turned-QB Lynn Bowden Jr., sealing a bowl bid for the fourth straight year.

Bowden is worth the price of admission, but Louisville has an up-and-coming star behind center of its own in sophomore Micale Cunningham, a dual-threat type who is also the nation’s highest-rated passer in the month of November. Add to the mix redshirt freshman RB Javian Hawkins (1,278 yards on 5.8 per carry) and the WR trio of Chatarius “Tutu” Atwell, Dez Fitzpatrick and Seth Dawkins (1,982 combined yards on an absurd 19.2 per catch), and you have the makings of a core that can get the Cardinals back in the hunt for January bowl games as soon as next year. Wins in the next two could cement their status as preseason darlings in 2020.

Louisville 29, Kentucky 23

Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-21.5)

Tennessee has lost 3 straight to Vandy, its longest losing streak in the series since before the Great Depression. This year’s edition finds the Vols on a surprise upswing, riding the redemptive wave of a 4-game winning streak, against a 3-8 outfit that ranks last or next-to-last in the SEC in almost every conceivable statistical category and has been outscored by 167 points in conference games. If the skid hits 4 in Neyland Stadium it’s going to feel like losing to Georgia State all over again.

Tennessee 38, Vanderbilt 13

Missouri (-12.5) at Arkansas

They still going through with this? Yes? Alright then. Welcome to the No One Wants to Be Here Bowl.

On one side, the Razorbacks are the league’s reigning doormats, losers of 18 straight in conference play, resigned to closing out another lost season under an interim head coach. (If you’re keeping track, they’re also considering going with their 5 different starting quarterback of the year.) On the other, Mizzou has watched a once-promising campaign descend into a 5-game losing streak and just found out it won’t be eligible for a bowl game even if it wins on Friday to even its record at 6-6. It’s hard to image how demoralized the Tigers would have to be to actually lose to Arkansas with coach Barry Odom ’s job potentially on the line, but it’s very easy to guess what will happen next if they do.

Missouri 41, Arkansas 16

Scoreboard

Week 13 record 8-0 straight-up / 5-2 vs. spread

Season record: 82-17 straight-up / 50-48 vs. spread