The 5 best college football bets for Week 10

Coming of a positive 2-1-1 week, my season tally is now 9-10-1 with 5 weeks left, including conference championships.

The Week 10 college football slate delivers some of the biggest games of the season, including Playoff ranking No. 1 Tennessee vs No. 3 Georgia. The Vols, who wrestled the No. 1 ranking from the Dawgs and Ohio State in the first CFP bracket of the season, head to Athens as 8-point underdogs in the Week 10 college football odds.

If you’re only here for my Tennessee/Georgia pick, scroll directly to the bottom. It’s the final play on my SEC-heavy card for Week 10.

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Pick 1: Florida +3.5 (-112) at Texas A&M

It’s hard to be more underwhelmed with the 2022 Aggies. There were ample concerns during their 3-1 start – which included a loss to App State — and now they’ve dropped four straight to fall to 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference play.

The front seven looked helpless in last week’s 31-28 home loss to Ole Miss, giving up 390 yards on the ground (6.2 YPC) even though the Rebels weren’t remotely secretive about their game plan. Ole Miss ran the ball 62 times while Jaxson Dart only had 20 pass attempts.

On the bright side, the A&M offense looked arguably the best it has all season. Connor Weigman threw for 338 yards, 4 TDs and no picks. There’s a good chance he finds more success against a generous Florida defense. (The Gators are giving up 29.9 PPG and have surrendered 40-plus in back-to-back weeks.) But Florida’s wins over Utah and Missouri are better than anything on A&M’s resume.

As good as Jimbo Fisher has been against UF in his career, I expect the Gators to win this game outright and A&M’s death spiral to continue.

Pick 2: Louisville -7.5 (+100) vs. James Madison

I’m a bit worried about a discrepancy in motivation for this game. Louisville is the only Power 5 team on James Madison’s schedule. This is the Dukes’ biggest game of the season, their first in the FBS.

But these teams are trending in opposite directions. The Cardinals have been fantastic the past 2 weeks — both home games — beating Pitt (24-10) and Wake Forest (48-21) in dominant fashion.

The Dukes, meanwhile, have dropped 2 in a row, first losing to Georgia Southern (45-38) as 13-point road chalk, and most recently getting shut down by Marshall (26-12) as 12.5-point home favorites.

Curt Cignetti — another former Saban assistant — is building a solid program in Harrisonburg, Va. The Dukes had rattled off 5 straight victories to start the season, including a road win over the same App State team that won at Texas A&M. I expect James Madison to be a force in the Group of 5 for years to come.

Nonetheless, Cignetti’s team will be punching a little above its weight this Saturday. Louisville will distance the Dukes in the second half.

Pick 3: Kentucky at Missouri first-half Under 21.0 (-120)

I’m going to keep taking unders with Missouri until the Tigers give me a reason not to. The defense was smothering in last week’s 23-10 road win over South Carolina. The Gamecocks only managed 203 total yards, 23 on the ground at 1.4 YPC.

A week after dominating Spencer Rattler, Missouri now faces another touted gun-slinger in the form of Will Levis. Missouri generated effective pressure on Rattler (4 sacks) and took up residence in the SC backfield all game (11 TFL). Levis and the UK offensive line have already surrendered 30 sacks this season — tied for most among the 65 Power 5 teams and more than all but 4 teams nationally. That number is apt to rise rapidly this week.

The Missouri defense has risen to 12th in Defensive FEI. Kentucky is also a top-15 unit on D and projects to have an easy week against a Mizzou attack that sits a discouraging 87th in efficiency.

It’s difficult to see more than three majors before the break in this game.

Pick 4: South Carolina -7 (-110) at Vanderbilt

The last time we saw the ‘Dores, they came perilously close to ending their 25-game SEC losing streak, falling 17-14 at Missouri. But I just touched on how ineffective the Missouri offense has been all season. The Tigers are prone to playing close, low-scoring games. The Gamecocks are built differently, and not in a way that bodes well for Vandy.

Prior to last week’s upset at the hands of Mizzou, then-No. 25 South Carolina was riding a 4-game win streak that included a 10-point win at Kentucky and 6-point victory over Texas A&M. Spencer Rattler had led the offense to 30-plus points in 5 of 7 games.

While Rattler’s game still leaves a lot to be desired — he’s only completing 64% of his passes and has 9 INTs to just 5 passing touchdowns — this is the type of opponent he should feast on. Vandy’s secondary has been torn to shreds by every half-decent passing game it has faced (and also Ole Miss), same as last season. There’s every reason to think that will continue against the Gamecocks.

Pick 5: Tennessee +8 (-110) at Georgia

A combined 16-0 on the year, both Tennessee and Georgia have looked like world-beaters at times this season, and both have also looked beatable. The storylines heading into the game are about the Vols’ offense — the highest-scoring unit in the country at 49.4 points per game — squaring off with the nation’s most efficient defense.

But both teams have more balance than they’re given credit for. The Georgia offense has the capability to blow the doors off of teams — remember when UGA put up 49 in Week 1 against an Oregon team that hasn’t lost since? While the Tennessee defense … well, it’s undoubtedly the most suspect unit in this game, but it’s still only surrendering 21 points per game and is coming off an impressive 44-6 win over Kentucky.

Tennessee limited the Wildcats to just 205 total yards, sacked Will Levis 4 times, and pulled down 3 interceptions. They’re good enough to provide some resistance, and that’s all Hendon Hooker and the offense will need to keep this game close.