I’m gonna let you in on a little secret here.

KJ Jefferson and Jayden Daniels are going to be preseason All-SEC quarterbacks. My guess is that Daniels will be the first-team selection, though I’d have Jefferson in that spot. The guy is coming off consecutive seasons with a top-10 quarterback rating nationally, and he also has over 1,300 rushing yards and 15 scores with his legs in his 2 years as Arkansas’ starter. But yes, Daniels leading LSU to an SEC West title will carry some weight into 2023.

Either way, I’d expect that they’ll lock down the first- and second-team spots.

As for the preseason third-team All-SEC quarterback slot? That’s where it gets interesting.

These are the names who could earn that preseason spot:

  • Will Rogers, MSU
  • Devin Leary, Kentucky
  • Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
  • Joe Milton, Tennessee

Wait, what about Carson Beck? Why wouldn’t Georgia’s starter be a possible preseason All-SEC guy?

Remember that these slots aren’t projecting. At least they’re not supposed to be. They’re about what we’ve seen. Beck, of course, hasn’t started a game. That’s similar to 2018 Tua Tagovailoa, who entered that year in a quarterback battle at Alabama with Jalen Hurts (that whole “being in a battle” thing is also why I don’t have incoming transfer Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss as a legitimate candidate). Tagovailoa was fresh off “2nd-and-26,” yet even he wasn’t a preseason All-SEC guy. Neither was Bryce Young heading into 2021.

It’s not disrespectful. There’s just a “wait and see” when it comes to those preseason spots.

Maybe that’ll work against someone like new Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary, who is a year removed from being the preseason ACC Player of the Year at NC State. But his midseason pec injury halted any chance he had of living up to some major preseason buzz following his breakout 2021 campaign.

History suggests that if you haven’t done it in the SEC at quarterback, you’re not worthy of that kind of love. We’ve never seen a transfer jump to the SEC and immediately get preseason all-conference love. We also don’t typically see a guy as accomplished as Leary enter the conference (that’s why I’d have no problem seeing him get that third spot). The closest thing to a transfer getting preseason All-SEC love would’ve been JT Daniels earning second-team honors ahead of the 2021 season, but that was after his impressive showing as UGA’s starter in the final 4 games of 2020.

Speaking of guys who lost a starting job at a different Power 5 school, Milton and Rattler have a shot to earn a preseason All-SEC spot after the way they finished the 2022 season.

Milton closed out 2022 by winning both of his starts in place of the injured Hendon Hooker, including a blowout victory against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. The combination of that and Josh Heupel’s run of 5 consecutive top-8 offenses could have some banging the drum for Milton to start off as an All-SEC selection. I’d push back on that type of preseason honor for Milton because it’s a bit too projection-heavy. He still has yet to show that he can hold down a starting job for an entire season.

Rattler has at least done that at 2 Power 5 programs. Of course, the early returns on his 2022 season at South Carolina weren’t overly promising. He looked like the guy who struggled with his decision-making and mechanics during his 2021 start at Oklahoma, which led to him giving way to Caleb Williams.

Then again, if Daniels earned preseason All-SEC honors for his 2021 finish, we shouldn’t rule out the possibility that Rattler will get similar treatment. In those final 3 games, Rattler beat a pair of top-10 teams because he was brilliant. He racked up 11 touchdowns (10 passing, 1 rushing) and 1,044 passing yards on 8.5 yards/attempt. You could argue that Rattler delivered the best single-game performance of any SEC quarterback last year with his 6-touchdown showing in South Carolina’s rout of Tennessee.

Rattler’s time in the spotlight, which dates back to his days starring on the “QB1: Beyond the Lights” documentary series, has always made him a lightning rod for conversation. He’s the most well-known SEC quarterback entering 2023, in part because of how he lost his job at Oklahoma after entering the year projected as a possible No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. In a weird way, though, there might always be tempered expectations for Rattler. At least outside of Columbia.

My guess? Preseason third-team All-SEC honors won’t go to Leary, Milton or Rattler. They’ll go to Rogers.

It’s strange to suggest that there could be skepticism about a guy who ranks No. 8 in the SEC in career TD passes (82) and career passing yards (10,689), but obviously, we need context. Rogers was a prolific 3-year starter in the Mike Leach Air Raid, which inflates passing numbers unlike any offense in the 21st century. Fair or not, there tends to be a bit of an asterisk with the offense that was run by the late MSU coach, which is why Rogers has yet to start or finish as an All-SEC quarterback.

Go figure that now that Rogers isn’t running Leach’s offense, that could be held against him in the preseason All-SEC conversation. The expectation is that he won’t be throwing 45-50 times per game anymore. New offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay will have more balance than Leach because, well, everyone has more balance than Leach. It’s possible that there’s a bit of a “wait and see” approach with Rogers.

But at the same time, it’s hard to imagine those numbers will be totally dismissed, especially with the SEC lacking proven depth at quarterback. Pass-heavy system aside, hitting 10,000 passing yards as an SEC quarterback isn’t nothing. Nobody in the sport has had tighter windows to throw into than Rogers, and yet, the guy had a 71-17 TD-INT ratio over his past 2 seasons as a starter. Something tells me that Rogers will be rewarded for that.

Something also tells me that we’ll hear a lot about the preseason All-SEC snubs at quarterback. It comes with the territory. It’s easy to assume that because the SEC lacks preseason All-America signal-callers that those spots are totally up for grabs. I suppose in some ways, they are.

But I’ll say that Daniels, Jefferson and Rogers start off at the top of the SEC’s QB hierarchy heading into 2023.