Tennessee football officially enters Year 3 of the Josh Heupel era on Saturday, September 2 in Nashville against Virginia. For the most part, ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is high on the Vols post-Hendon Hooker and loosely predicts the Vols to be favorites in 9 of their 12 regular season games.

The FPI has the Vols favored in all matchups except at Florida, at Alabama and vs. Georgia. 2 of those 3 shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

ESPN’s FPI places, as it should, extra value on home matchups while also taking into account recent performance. The Vols downed the Gators last season in Knoxville but have struggled against Florida in the past. That, mixed with a trip to The Swamp, explains why the FPI has this game as a near toss-up.

Games against Mizzou, Kentucky and Texas A&M are also categorized as a toss-ups or in the arena of being considered a toss-up. It’s hard to image Tennessee struggling too much against Eli Drinkwitz’s squad, but the Aggies and Wildcats definitely fall in the “swing game” category and will be ones to circle for this upcoming season.

See how Tennessee is predicted to fare in 2023. All percentages represent Tennessee’ probability of victory.

  • Sept. 2 vs. Virginia: 87.5%
  • Sept. 9 vs. Austin Peay: 98.4%
  • Sept. 16 at Florida: 48.9%
  • Sept. 23 vs. UTSA: 86.9%
  • Sept. 30 vs. South Carolina: 77.9%
  • Oct. 14 vs. Texas A&M: 66.3%
  • Oct. 21 at Alabama: 15.2%
  • Oct. 28 at Kentucky: 53.1%
  • Nov. 4 vs. UConn: 96.1%
  • Nov. 11 at Mizzou: 63.8%
  • Nov. 18 vs. Georgia: 25.4%
  • Nov. 25 vs. Vanderbilt: 88.6%