It’s the type of matchup that I don’t expect the SEC purist to hype up.

Texas A&M traveling to take on Tennessee is the type of matchup that I, a non-purist, am looking forward to seeing more often in the expanded SEC. I realize that I’m probably in the minority with that opinion. That’s fine. You don’t have to ditch tradition to support something new.

A&M-Tennessee is a fascinating matchup on a variety of fronts. It’s fair to say that both teams have been a bit disappointing. And sure, A&M is a win away from matching last year’s total while the Vols are heading into mid-October with 1 loss. There are plenty of SEC teams that would trade places with either program.

But it feels like a pivotal Saturday. Lose this game and it’s a second loss in conference play to all but eliminate any lingering division title hopes. The winner, however, will pick up its best victory of the  season.

So who ends up on which side? Let’s break it down.

1. Joe Milton has confirmed why I got sick of hearing about his arm strength

I get it. It’s cool that Milton can throw a football 90 yards, and I’ll admit, there are times when I watch the Tennessee quarterback in amazement because he can uncork a 60-yard throw with less effort than it takes me to get out of bed in the morning.

But for all that talk about arm strength, what we haven’t seen is a consistent downfield attack.

At the midway point of the season, Milton ranks No. 14 in the SEC with 11 passes of 20 yards. He’s tied with Payton Thorne, who plays in an Auburn offense that has made the forward pass look like advanced calculus in 2023. Ken Seals, who didn’t even start a game until Week 5, has more 20-yard passes (12) than Milton. Even Graham Mertz, who has been labeled a “game manager,” has 7 more 20-yard passes than Milton.

I know, I know. Milton only has 5 games under his belt. And with how good the Vols have been at running the football — 230 rushing yards per game is the best in the SEC by 19 yards — it makes sense that the Vols haven’t been uncorking the deep ball with such high volume.

Still, though. Without Bru McCoy, Tennessee needs to start finding some answers with that downfield passing attack. Against an A&M secondary that got gashed in its 2 toughest games of the year, Saturday feels like as good a time as any to get that rolling.

2. Josh Heupel’s offense off the bye has been _________.

“Phenomenal.”

  • 2018 (UCF) vs. FAU — W, 56-36
  • 2018 vs. Temple — W, 52-40
  • 2019 vs. East Carolina — W, 41-28
  • 2020 at Memphis — L, 50-49
  • 2020 vs. Temple — W, 38-13
  • 2021 (Tennessee) at Kentucky — W, 45-42
  • 2022 at LSU — W, 40-13

In those 7 instances coming off a bye — or coming a game that was canceled because of COVID or a hurricane — Heupel’s offense averaged 46 points, and it hit at least 38 points each game. Not too shabby. Granted, we’re talking about someone with 5 consecutive top-8 offenses since he became a head coach. Obviously, there’s a high standard to light up the scoreboard.

It’ll be interesting to see what wrinkles Heupel and primary offensive play-caller Joey Halzle have in store. Will we get more from the emerging Dylan Sampson, who has only played 80 snaps in 4 active games? Assuming he’s at full strength coming off the hamstring injury, will the Vols be able to manufacture more touches for decorated Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton after a slow start to his season?

That we don’t know. What we do know is that the Vols have hit 38 points in each of their past 10 games at home against FBS competition. Combine that with Heupel off a bye and it could be an uphill climb for that A&M defense.

Speaking of that group …

3. Texas A&M’s defensive front is easily the best that Tennessee has faced

I don’t want to take away from how good the Aggies’ defensive front has been. It’s been excellent so far. McKinnley Jackson, Shemar Turner, Walter Nolen and Fadil Diggs have been dominant up front, and Edgerrin Cooper at middle linebacker is having the best season in the SEC that nobody is talking about. Well, A&M fans are. They watched this group be everything it was cracked up to be. A&M is No. 1 in FBS in sacks and tied for No. 1 in tackles for loss.

Oh, and remember when that was a bottom-10 run defense in FBS last year? It’s now sitting in the top 10 in rushing yards/game allowed and rushing yards/carry allowed. And before you tell me that’s just because of the high sack rates, tell me instead when was the last time A&M allowed a rushing touchdown. Don’t remember? It was 20 minutes into the season in Week 1 against New Mexico.

The Vols have been excellent on the offensive line, but they haven’t faced a defensive front on A&M’s level that can force Milton into the off-platform throws that he typically avoids. With Cooper Mays back at center for Tennessee, this is a tremendous strength-on-strength matchup. Tennessee hit 220 rushing yards against 4 of its 5 opponents, and the lone front that held that group in check was Cam Jackson-led Florida, who kept the Vols to 100 rushing yards in The Swamp.

The good news for Tennessee is that this game isn’t at The Swamp. It’s at Neyland, where the Vols have run for at least 177 yards in each of the past 10 games. The bad news for Tennessee is that in 3 SEC games this year, A&M allowed a total of 209 rushing yards.

Something will give on Saturday afternoon.

4. And Tennessee’s defensive front might be the best that A&M has faced

Yes, including Alabama.

The trio of James Pearce Jr., Tyler Baron and Aaron Beasley has been lights out. They have combined for 20 tackles for loss in 5 games. South Carolina’s entire team doesn’t even have 20 tackles for loss this season. That group is a big reason the Vols are No. 10 in FBS in yards/play allowed and No. 9 in 20-yard scrimmage plays allowed. Tennessee’s lack of explosive plays in the passing game on offense has been mitigated by the fact that only 3 Power 5 teams have allowed fewer 20-yard passing plays than Tennessee (9).

Last week, we saw A&M struggle to protect Max Johnson. Alabama’s pressure created 5 sacks. The safety he took proved costly, and Alabama’s edge-rushing trio of Dallas Turner, Justin Eboigbe and Chris Braswell were able to turn up the heat in the second half. That was at home in front of a juiced Kyle Field crowd. A&M’s offensive line was decorated for its experience, but so far, any hope that it would resemble the 2020 Maroon Goons has faded.

A&M has explosive weapons at receiver who can occasionally save the day on 3rd-and-long, but that’s not a place that Johnson and the Aggies’ offense want to live. Not against a defense that can speed up the quarterback like Tennessee.

5. When was the last time that Jimbo Fisher impressed in a true road game?

I’m gonna exclude 2020 here because we can all admit those were not true road SEC atmospheres. Playing in front of 25,000 fans with stadiums 1/3 full is a whole lot different than But here are the true road wins of the Fisher era at A&M:

  • 2018 — at South Carolina (7-6)
  • 2019 — at Ole Miss (4-8)
  • 2021 — at Mizzou (6-7)

In true road games at A&M, excluding 2020, Fisher is 3-13 (even if you wanted to include 2020 it’s still a 7-14 mark in true road games). He has 7 consecutive true road losses and his last true road win came at Mizzou on Oct. 16, 2021. The 2-year anniversary of that last true road win is basically this weekend. That’s startling.

Yes, it’s great that Fisher has controlled those neutral-site games against Arkansas, and picking up bowl victories against a couple of borderline Top-25 teams his first 2 years was nice. I’m also not trying to dismiss that 2020 season because in many ways, it set the table for that historic 2022 recruiting class.

But the good coaches can go into enemy territory and silence a hostile crowd. It’s been a minute since Fisher showed that he could do that.

Beating Tennessee in Neyland — and doing so in front of a packed house — would be better than any road victory that Fisher has had since he arrived in College Station.

And a prediction … Tennessee 35, Texas A&M 14

Rarely do I feel confident enough about a premier matchup to predict a blowout. In this case, I do.

Why? It’s not just that the Aggies have been extremely unimpressive in true road games in hostile territory, or that they didn’t muster a second-half touchdown against Alabama. I mean, those things didn’t help, but that’s not the entire reason for the lopsided prediction.

I wonder how A&M, after taking that second loss, comes out on the heels of 3 consecutive physical SEC West matchups. Compare that to a Tennessee team with fresh legs coming off the bye week. My guess is that the A&M defensive front, which has been such an advantage for the majority of the season, won’t take over on the road. On the other side of the ball, I anticipate that Vols pass rush getting home more often than A&M can handle.

And while I knocked the Tennessee downfield passing game, I believe A&M’s secondary could yield a get-right game for that group. Just when you think it’s all ground-and-pound with Tennessee’s offense, Squirrell White and the aforementioned Thornton could both have some big opportunities in favorable matchups on the outside.

Maybe A&M shows up to Knoxville upset after an emotional loss to Alabama. Or maybe we’re reminded why Neyland Stadium has been one of the toughest places to play since Heupel arrived.

I’m banking on the latter.