August is an interesting month for a college football team. On one side, there is hope that springs eternal. On another, it is doom and gloom. You can’t win a title in August … but you can’t get knocked out of contention in August either.

At Tennessee, there is reason for optimism with a new coaching staff and a new offensive philosophy that should mean a more interesting and fun team for Vols fans to watch. However, the lack of depth on defense might mean they can’t stop anybody.

Let’s delve into this, as we take a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 2021 Tennessee Volunteers. (I’ll stay away from injuries because they are inevitable and with the roster limitations, injuries at some key spots would be devastating.)

We are going to start positive. Here are the 3 best-case scenarios.

Best-case

1. One quarterback becomes the guy

Tennessee has 3 quarterbacks who have started games at Power 5 schools: incumbent Harrison Bailey, Virginia Tech grad transfer Hendon Hooker and Michigan transfer Joe Milton.

Fans have their favorites, but what Tennessee needs more than anything is for one guy to take control at football’s most important position. The Vols’ best seasons this century came when they had one guy getting almost all of the snaps. In 2006 and 2007, it was Erik Ainge winning a total of 19 games. In 2015 and 2016, it was Josh Dobbs winning 18.

Having that one guy means that there’s not as much drama inside the complex, and it takes away the whole quarterback controversy thing that can divide a team. It also means that Tennessee is probably winning games if there isn’t a need for a quarterback change.

2. The defense grows up

There’s no way to sugarcoat this: The Vols don’t look very good on defense. The lack of depth is a serious concern. They also lost their best overall player to Alabama (linebacker Henry To’o To’o) and their top recruit from the Class of 2020 to Oklahoma (safety Key Lawrence).

New defensive coordinator Tim Banks has his work cut out for him. But the early part of the schedule sets up nicely. Bowling Green, Pittsburgh and Tennessee Tech don’t have a lot of offensive firepower.  That could give his players time to get their cleats settled before the rough part of the campaign begins.

No one is expecting this defense to shut out opponents. But if Tennessee can even keep most of them under 30 points a game, it will give the Vols a chance to win more often than expected.

3. Tennessee wins 9 games and earns a Citrus Bowl bid

OK. Let’s get nuts.

Tennessee has the misfortune of playing Alabama, Georgia and Florida every season.  For a program that is once again in rebuild mode, that’s brutal. Since 2010, the Vols are a woeful 3-30 against those rivals, and I don’t expect things to get better this year.

But those other 9 games?  The Vols get 7 of them at home. Their toughest nonconference foe is Pittsburgh, and the biggest remaining SEC opponent is probably Ole Miss. The Vols almost always beat Kentucky, even when the Wildcats have a better team. Missouri, South Carolina, a lousy Vanderbilt team … none of those 9 will be compared to 2004 Southern Cal. If the offense is clicking and the Vols get some breaks, they could sweep those 9 and get to the Citrus Bowl.

Do I think this will happen? No. No, I certainly do not. But it’s August. Let’s keep hope alive for at least a little while.

Time for the flip side. Here are the 3 worst-case scenarios.

Worst-case

1. Josh Heupel’s offense is a dud

In 2008, then-head coach Phillip Fulmer brought in Richmond head coach Dave Clawson to run the offense. The results were disastrous. An offense that was so potent the previous 2 seasons was a sputtering mess. The Vols lost 6 of their first 9 games, Fulmer was fired, and the program has never been the same.

The spring game was fun and the QBs certainly enjoyed taking shots downfield.

But Tennessee’s players have had less than 7 months to learn this scheme and while Josh Heupel’s offenses have proven to be electric, there’s no guarantee that trend continues.

If the offense can’t perform at a high level, the fan base will be grumbling because that’s precisely what Heupel was brought to Knoxville to fix.

2. The transfer portal gets full … again

Tennessee lost over 30 players to the transfer portal from the end of the 2020 season to the present day. That level of roster attrition is a problem for any program.

Tennessee’s athletic program has struggled with a lack of stability, from the top down. Now, relaxed transfer regulations will mean more players bolting in the years to come, but Heupel can’t have turnover like that again if he wants to build a successful program.

If the season goes off the rails again, you might see another mass exodus. And that would put Tennessee’s rebuild another step back.

3. The Vols go 4-8

Until 2018, Tennessee had never lost 8 games in a season. If things go off the rails in 2021, it could happen again.

The Pittsburgh game in Week 2 is huge. Win that game and the 8-loss nadir is probably off the table. Lose and then that 5-week midseason SEC stretch looks much dicier.

ESPN’s FPI predicted a 6.5-5.4 record. That includes a victory over Pitt.

Derek Dooley lost 7 games in his first season at Tennessee. Butch Jones lost 7 games in his first season at Tennessee. A result worst than that in Heupel’s first season would not bode well for his future in Knoxville.