1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

There are some genuinely nervous folks in the SEC office these days, and it has nothing to do with the reality that as many as seven of the league’s 14 schools could be looking for new coaches.

It has everything to with Auburn – the one team that can prevent the SEC’s unequivocal ascension to the top of the college football world once again.

“What’s there to celebrate?” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this week when asked about winning the SEC East Division for the first time since 2012.

Here’s what’s to celebrate: the way the current College Football Playoff field is set, only Auburn can stop the SEC from likely securing two of the four CFP teams. Only an Auburn win over Georgia this week or against Alabama at the end of the month is enough for the CFP selection committee to eliminate either team from contention for those four precious spots.

But should both Georgia and Alabama beat Auburn on The Plains, then play a tight game in the SEC Championship Game (why wouldn’t it be?), the CFP will have little choice but to choose both SEC teams for the national playoff. Why, you ask?

Resumes – and precedent set by the selection committee last year.

We have four vital weeks of ball to be played, those crazy Saturdays of November where every play means more than the next. Where a Playoff run thrives in the moment or dies on the vine.

Where championships and Heismans are won and frauds are exposed, and every possible Playoff scenario boils down to one simple metric: the eye test.

The eye test got Ohio State in last year’s College Football Playoff, and nothing else. The Buckeyes didn’t win their conference; hell, they didn’t even win their own division.

Ohio State lost to Penn State in the regular season, then sat home while Penn State played in and won the Big Ten Championship Game. And the Buckeyes were then picked as one of four teams to play for it all.

Unlike what we heard for the first two years of the CFP, conference championships no longer are the be-all, end-all metric. Now that we’ve clearly established that, Georgia is sitting in the perfect spot come championship weekend.

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

If Georgia wins out and wins the SEC Championship Game, it is the No. 1 seed. If Georgia wins out, and loses a tight game to No. 2 Alabama, there’s almost zero chance the selection committee moves Georgia from No. 1 going into the SEC Championship Game to out of the top four after it.

Georgia has the head-to-head win over Notre Dame, should both teams finish with one loss. Georgia has a better resume than the only Pac-12 team with one loss (Washington).

The only Big Ten team with a better resume than a one-loss Georgia would be an unbeaten Wisconsin. Unbeaten Miami would have a better resume, but that unblemished record ends this weekend with a loss to Notre Dame – the team Georgia beat in South Bend.

Even the best-case scenario for all involved – when has that happened ever in November? – still leaves Georgia sitting with a spot in the playoff. Alabama, Wisconsin and Miami all win out, and all are unbeaten and earn a CFP spot.

That leaves one-loss Pac-12 champion Washington, one-loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma or TCU) and one-loss Georgia. In that perfect world scenario, those teams will enter championship weekend ranked like this:

1. Georgia (12-0)
2. Alabama (12-0)
3. Miami (12-0)
4. Wisconsin (12-0)
5. Oklahoma (11-1)
6. Washington (11-1)

Not only will Georgia not fall from No. 1 to No. 5 with a close loss to Alabama, Oklahoma and Washington State will have the conference championship metric, Georgia will have the eye test.

The next level, of course, is what if Alabama loses a close game to Georgia in the perfect world? Well, then the committee is choosing between two one-loss conference champions and the most talented team in the country – a team that wins any eye test, against any team (other than the team they would’ve just lost to).

You don’t really think the committee would leave one-loss Alabama out of the Playoff, do you? That would be like leaving one-loss Ohio State out in 2016 (and 2014).

Long, crazy story short: Auburn can wreck the SEC twofer party. Don’t think there won’t be conference commissioners and team officials all over the country praying for just that.

2. The Great Debate, Part II

Early Sunday morning I received a text from a Power 5 coach whose plea was as direct as it was desperate:

Alabama or Georgia must lose before the SEC Championship Game (see: Auburn), or the CFP will have a “huge mess” on its hands.

That huge mess might just translate to a move from four to eight teams in the CFP sooner than you think.

In fact, if you’re a fan of an eight-team Playoff, you should root like hell for both Alabama and Georgia to make the CFP. The last time the SEC dominated the postseason championship stage, the rest of college football got so fed up, the College Football Playoff was born.

That was 2011, when Alabama and LSU played in the BCS National Championship Game, and every other school and conference had to sit and watch a four-hour recruiting pitch for the SEC in the biggest game of the season.

That didn’t cut it then, and it won’t time around.

The last time the SEC dominated the postseason championship stage, the rest of college football got so fed up, the College Football Playoff was born.

In the December weeks leading up to the 2011 BCS National Championship Game, what began as then-SEC commissioner Mike Slive’s simple “plus-one” postseason change (a single game after all the bowls) quickly developed into the idea of a “Playoff” of multiple teams.

The biggest issue back then was the limited postseason had created a competitive advantage for the SEC, which had won the previous five BCS titles and now had two teams in the championship game.

The fear was the SEC could use its dominance to create an unfair advantage in revenue generation, which would further the chasm between itself and the rest of the BCS conferences. It’s no coincidence that the SEC Network – a media property that prints money for the league — was born in 2014, a year after the SEC’s seven-year championship streak was snapped.

If both Alabama and Georgia make the CFP this fall, and the loser of the SEC Championship Game is chosen over a one-loss Power 5 conference champion, the grousing for an eight-team playoff will commence.

3. The Great Debate, Part III

While everyone zeroes in on Alabama and Georgia finding a way to the SEC Championship Game as unbeatens, we ignore the collateral damage of such a run.

The end of Gus Malzahn at Auburn.

Fair or not, Malzahn won’t make it to his sixth season at Auburn if he doesn’t win one of those two games. The athletic director (Jay Jacobs) who hired him is gone, and losses to the Tide and Bulldogs will leave Malzahn 2-8 vs. Auburn’s rivals since the 2013 season.

Malzahn likely saves his job if Auburn wins one of the two (especially the Iron Bowl), but might want to get out before the hot-seat talk begins on the first day of 2018 regardless of how November plays out.

One industry source says Malzahn leaving for another job before Auburn can make a move is an “absolute” option. If Auburn loses to both Georgia and Alabama, Malzahn will be 16-16 in the SEC since leading the Tigers to the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

4. The development of Fromm

It’s no big secret how to stop Georgia: stop the run, force freshman quarterback Jake Fromm to win the game.

“That was our plan,” South Carolina coach Muschamp said of last week’s loss to Georgia. “And (Fromm) made some terrific plays to beat us.”

Now comes the heavy lifting.

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Beginning this week at Auburn, Georgia will play a stretch of games against teams that not only can stop the run (Auburn, Alabama in potential SEC Championship Game matchup, potential Playoff) but can score points to put pressure on the Georgia offense to keep pace.

Auburn is No. 24 in the nation against the run (126.4 per game), Alabama is No. 2 (75.7). Wisconsin is No. 4 in the nation, Washington No. 6, Clemson No. 20. See where this is headed?

Fromm has played well beyond what you should expect from a true freshman quarterback. He has played smart, hasn’t forced too many throws and knows when to throw it away or take a sack. More than anything, he hasn’t hurt Georgia.

The problem is, we’re nine games into the season and Fromm has thrown all of 22 passes in 3rd-and-7+ yards. The next team that gets Georgia into multiple 3rd-and-long spots will have the advantage of the unknown staring at Fromm.

Those 3rd-and-long reps are critical in November, when every play becomes more important than the last – against teams that can stop the run. Among Fromm’s 22 third and 7+ throws are half of his four interceptions, and Auburn will be the best defense he has faced since Notre Dame in Week 2 – far and away is worst game of the season.

5. The Weekly Five

Five picks against the spread.

  • Florida at South Carolina (-9)
  • Alabama (-14.5) at Mississippi State
  • Georgia at Auburn (+3)
  • Tennessee at Missouri (-10.5)
  • Arkansas at LSU (-18)

Last week: 4-1.
Season: 31-19 (.620)

6. The recruiting game

South Carolina will beat Florida this weekend. More than likely, very badly in a game that will underscore the importance of recruiting.

The importance, that is, of Will Muschamp’s recruiting. On both sides of the field.

When Muschamp was fired at Florida after the 2014 season, he left behind a defense stocked with NFL talent (13 players went on to play in the NFL) and a redshirt freshman quarterback (Will Grier) with the best arm talent at Florida since Rex Grossman in the early 2000s.

That defense was the foundation of back-to-back SEC East titles for now former coach Jim McElwain, and Grier was an elite quarterback that McElwain ran off after an NCAA suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. The talent level at Florida dropped significantly in McElwain’s 2 1/2 seasons, and the program has been exposed this fall with limitations at numerous positions (quarterback, offensive line, linebacker, safety).

Muschamp, meanwhile, arrived at South Carolina after the 2015 season and walked into a program devoid of talent. Former coach Steve Spurrier said as much after Muschamp’s hiring.

In two years, Muschamp has recruited a program-defining quarterback (Jake Bentley) and wideout (injured star Deebo Samuel), and has quickly rebuilt a sagging defense. The next critical step is finding the right coaching combination to develop talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A common complaint from those at Florida was Muschamp couldn’t recruit an elite quarterback. He landed three in Gainesville: Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett weren’t developed properly by the offensive staff, and Grier injured his back as a true freshman and redshirted in Muschamp’s last season.

Driskel (49ers) and Brissett (Colts) play in the NFL; Grier could be a first-round pick if he leaves West Virginia early after this season. Now there’s Bentley, who has the talent to be better than any quarterback Muschamp has recruited.

“Jake is a special talent; you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure that out,” Muschamp said. “It’s up to us to get guys around him who can help us and him.”

That’s why Bentley’s development is so important for Muschamp and South Carolina. The Gamecocks weren’t overmatched last weekend vs. No. 1 Georgia, despite the clear discrepancy in talent.

If Muschamp can keep Bentley at Columbia for four seasons (and he finds the right combination of offensive staff to develop him), the talent level around him will increase and the Gamecocks will compete for an SEC East Division title. And maybe more.

7. Mizzou mystery

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the curious case of Missouri.

An awful defense, a suspect offense feasting on overmatched defenses, and a program left stranded by its own fans (have you seen those empty seats in Columbia?).

Now get this: The Tigers more than likely will finish the season with a six-game winning streak, quite possibly saving coach Barry Odom’s job. And do so on the back of four programs who have fired or likely will fire their current coaches at the end of the season (Idaho, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas).

Nothing like turning ugly into pretty at the expense of other imploding programs.

“They decided they were tired of losing and wanted to go get it done,” Odom said earlier this week at his weekly press conference.

Here’s a program that looked so bad after 37-point home loss to Auburn – which came on the heels of a 32-point home loss to Purdue and an 18-point home loss to South Carolina – Odom spent a few minutes of the postgame passionately defending its direction.

Since a 25-point loss to Georgia on Oct. 14 left Missouri 1-5 overall and 0-4 in the SEC, the Tigers have won consecutive games over Idaho, UConn and Florida by a combined 165-49. Mizzou will be favored in its remaining three games (Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas), and could finish a disastrous start to a season with six consecutive wins (four SEC wins) against teams with a combined record of 21-32.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Hey Matt: How do you rate Ed Orgeron’s first season at LSU? My initial thought is an underachieving group that should have done more.

Traci Stratton, New Orleans

Traci: On the surface it’s easy to point to the Troy and Mississippi State losses as reason for concern and disappointment. I can understand that.

But how many coaches take over a major program and immediately win a championship? Nick Saban didn’t at Alabama, Urban Meyer didn’t at Florida. Nor did Kirby Smart (Georgia), Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) or Tom Herman (Texas). Do I need to go further?

LSU’s problem – the same problem that led to Les Miles’ firing – is the lack of a top-level quarterback (or even one who plays smart and makes plays when you need it) since Matt Flynn in 2007. Quarterback play at LSU has ranged from atrocious to poorly-coached (see: the NFL talent of Zach Mettenberger) to the white knuckle agita produced over the past few seasons.

Danny Etling is a tough player, but he’s not a quarterback who can take over a game and win it. Myles Brennan, his talented freshman backup, might one day be. Give offensive coordinator Matt Canada 15 bowl practices and a full offseason with Brennan, and this year’s 9-3 record might look like 11-1 in 2018.

9. Numbers game

23.6. You’ll hear a lot this week from the talking bobbleheads about how Mississippi State is “always a trap game for Alabama” after a physical game against rival LSU.

Now, some facts: Alabama has beaten Mississippi State nine consecutive games by an average of 23.6 ppg. In road games (this week’s game is in Starkville), Alabama has won by an average of 21.7 ppg.

Mississippi State’s best team in that span – the 2014 team with star QB Dak Prescott that was ranked No. 1 in the CFP poll – lost 25-20 after scoring a touchdown in the final seconds of the game.

10. Quote to note

Arkansas coach Bret Bielema, who two weeks ago begged Hogs fans to fill Razorback Stadium, on the sparse crowd for last week’s Coastal Carolina game: “We didn’t really address anything about crowd size. I appreciate all the people that stayed and saw a good game at the end. I didn’t really take notice (of the crowd size).”