I’m gonna make a bold prediction — the SEC won’t have a quarterback drafted this year.

After Drew Lock announced he was returning to Missouri in 2018, that didn’t feel like such a bold prediction. With all due respect to guys like Austin Allen and Danny Etling, I certainly won’t be holding my breath on the prospect of an SEC quarterback coming off the board in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Frankly, the SEC’s weak quarterback showing on draft day(s) won’t be atypical. Everyone knows about the narrative that quarterback play has been down in the conference the past few years. My question is if people realize just how weak it’s been as it relates to the top of the draft.

For a moment, forget about the fact that the Big Ten hasn’t had a first-round quarterback since 1995 (an astounding feat) and focus on the SEC’s quarterback struggles in recent memory.

They’re even worse than I realized.

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Yes, I understand that Dak Prescott is crushing it in the NFL. If we were doing a re-draft, he’d be a first-round pick.

But if we were doing a re-draft, Johnny Manziel also wouldn’t be drafted. Manziel, in case you forgot, was the SEC’s last quarterback to be drafted in the first round back in 2014. There’s another interesting note on Manziel’s draft position.

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Assuming that the SEC has a quarterback-less draft in 2018, that’ll be 9 quarterbacks in the past 7 drafts, or an average of 1.3 per year. More alarming will be that 1 SEC quarterback was drafted in the first 3 rounds (Manziel) in the past 7 drafts, and that guy is doing whatever he can just to make a CFL team.

Compared to the rest of the Power 5 conferences (and a couple others), that’s not so good. Go back and look at the amount of quarterbacks each conference had drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2012-17:

  • Pac-12 — 8
  • ACC — 6
  • Big 12 — 5
  • AAC — 3
  • B1G — 3
  • Mountain West — 2
  • SEC — 1

Yikes. Those numbers will look even worse for the SEC after 2018, too.

Now obviously being drafted in the first 3 rounds doesn’t determine NFL success. That Tom Brady guy was barely a 6th-rounder and things worked out well for him. The aforementioned Prescott didn’t need to be picked in the first 2 days to have success in Dallas, either.

This is more so about recruiting. It’s been a widespread problem across the SEC. Despite the fact that the conference gets as much elite talent at the position as any other conference, it hasn’t resulted in a very lucrative next-level pay day. If you think that doesn’t matter to a 17-year-old kid, you’re crazy.

If I’m an assistant on the recruiting trail at a place like Clemson or Florida State or even a school out in the Pac-12 like UCLA, I’m playing up that stat. I’d be foolish not to.

All of the SEC’s quarterback struggles came after Cam Newton was drafted No. 1 overall in 2011. He was essentially the last SEC quarterback to get a big draft pay day and have NFL success. Just to provide a little perspective on that, today’s recruits were in elementary school when Newton won the Heisman Trophy during his breakout 2010 season at Auburn.

There might not be a current SEC quarterback who comes close to accomplishing what Newton did. But could there at least be a guy worthy of a top-3 round selection on the horizon?

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Lock is the most obvious choice. He could’ve been that guy had he decided to declare early for the NFL Draft. Only time will tell if Lock gels with new offensive coordinator Derek Dooley and watches his draft stock rise.

Perhaps next year both Lock and Jarrett Stidham, who figure to be picked apart from now until the 2019 draft, are snagged in the first couple days.

The guys who could draw serious first-round consideration in a couple years just finished battling for a national championship. Jake Fromm and Tua Tagovailoa have a long way to go to get on that level, but certainly it wouldn’t surprise anyone if their names were called early in the 2020 draft.

All four will have the same head coaches in 2018, but a bunch of other SEC teams got serious offensive makeovers. Adding elite offensive minds like Jimbo Fisher, Joe Moorhead and Chad Morris should help, as will Dan Mullen replacing Jim McElwain at Florida.

Producing elite quarterback prospects obviously doesn’t guarantee championships. If it did, Alabama would’ve probably had at least one quarterback drafted in the first 4 rounds since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.

But it’s at least noteworthy that the conference known for producing more collegiate and NFL talent than anyone in the country struggles so much with quarterback development. Maybe that changes in the next 5 years. For all we know, the script could flip in 2019 and Lock will begin a run of first round SEC signal-callers. Or, the SEC could be in the early stages of a B1G-like drought of first-round quarterbacks.

For now, though, it’s just an unflattering trend. And until it’s turned around, you can bet this won’t be the last place you read about it.