Week 3 of the new 17-game NFL regular season is underway and Sunday’s card offers some intriguing matchups including four divisional battles and a meeting of two of the seven remaining undefeated teams. Chaos has reigned so far through two weeks of NFL action and we expect that it could once again this Sunday.

Let’s jump into our NFL Week 3 upset picks, best bets ATS, and betting predictions.

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NFL Week 3 Upset Picks, Best Bets, and Betting Predictions

Saints vs. Patriots

It wouldn’t be a reach to say that this Week 3 game could shape up as the one that sets the trajectory for the Patriots’ season. Already 0-1 at home and with Tom Brady and his Bucs coming to town next week, a loss here could easily see New England slide to 0-3 at home and 1-3 overall after four games, a mountain likely too tall to climb in this crowded division.

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Thankfully, the Pats have the robotic Bill Belichick still guiding the ship. With most teams, you would worry about the look-ahead to Brady’s return in this spot, but Belichick is wise enough to see the bigger picture here and should have his rookie quarterback and team convinced that New Orleans is the true foe upon which they need to focus the entirety of their attention and emotions.

Mac Jones has shown well thus far, completing 73.9% of his passes and still dodging his first NFL interception. He will continue to be put in positions to succeed by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and is backed by the league’s third-best scoring and fifth best yardage defense. The Patriots defense has allowed less than 300 yards per game on average through two games, sitting sixth in passing yards allowed (184.5 per game) and 14th in rushing yards allowed (113.0 per game).

Most importantly, New England has forced five turnovers thus far, fourth most in the NFL, including four picks against rookie Zach Wilson last week. That type of opportunistic defense could tip the scales in this one, as they face New Orleans’ Jameis Winston, a veritable turnover machine.

Many were hornswoggled into thinking Winston had evolved after a five touchdown, zero interception performance against the Packers in Week 1. However, a 111-yard, zero-touchdown, two-interception effort at Carolina last week reminded everyone that this is the same guy who entered the 2021 season with 88 picks and 23 lost fumbles in 70 career starts. A quarterback who averages over 1.5 turnovers per game for his career playing against a team who values ball protection above all else is a bad recipe for the Saints here.

As it stands, New Orleans is currently the worst team in the NFL in terms of total yards of offense per game (225.0) and passing yards per game (115.5). And Belichick is known for taking a team’s strength away and forcing his opponent to beat him by using its weaknesses. Expect the Patriots to take Alvin Kamara out of this game and force Winston, who is just 16-22 ATS after a loss and 17-22 ATS outside of his division in his career, to have to beat them.

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Saints vs. Patriots Pick

New England will be bolstered by some remarkable trends here, as well. The Pats are 14-1 ATS at home versus a non-division foe when coming off a division road game. They are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after playing the Jets. Further, New England is 8-1 SU and ATS all-time as favorites of less than seven against NFC South opposition. Of final note, the Patriots have lost against the spread just seven of the last 26 times after winning their previous game by more than 14 points. Look for the more disciplined offense to come away with a hard-fought win here.

Our Pick: New England -2.5 (Barstool Sportsbook)

Bears vs. Browns

Chicago fans wondered when rookie quarterback Justin Fields would get the nod to start, but few imagined it would be due to an Andy Dalton injury. Dalton’s knee has sped up head coach Matt Nagy’s timeline for his young signal-caller, forcing Fields into the starting role against a consistently undervalued Cleveland Browns defense.

It’s one thing to pop into a game for a few plays to execute a specially designed package or to take the wheel in a no-pressure role as a sub after an injury. It’s a whole other animal to be responsible for every snap your 30th-ranked offense takes, especially when it is on the road against a team hoping to contend for a Super Bowl this winter.

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As such, don’t expect to be dazzled by Fields from start to finish. He will likely make some eye-opening plays, but he is still a rookie and will invariably play like one through stretches of this game given the lack of dynamic talent around him. It’s not an accident that the Bears currently average just 264.0 total yards per game, 135.5 passing yards per game (31st), and just 17 points per game (29th). Those shortcomings are not likely to simply evaporate here.

Instead, we can expect Fields to be asked to manage this game, much like the Patriots have done with Mac Jones thus far. Protect the ball, make the safe passes, live to see another drive…these should all be mantras cycling through the young quarterback’s head here. After all, he does have a staunch defense upon which he can lean. The Bears are eighth in total yards against per game (317.0), including 15th against the pass and fifth against the run.

Chicago has played under the total in 12 of its last 16 games after covering its previous spread. The Bears have also played 13 of their last 19 games under the number as a road dog. These trends line up nicely with a Cleveland bunch that has played 23 of its 38 home games under during the last five seasons, as well as 17 of its 30 under outside of the AFC North across the last three years.

Bears vs. Browns Pick

The Browns boast a top ten run defense which should be able to contain the Bears’ eighth-ranked rush offense, as well as the capable legs of Fields, forcing him to beat them with his arm. Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has seen his team play five of its six home games under against opponents off a non-division game. And don’t be put off by the Browns’ back-to-back over games to open the season, as they have played four of their last five under after scoring more than 30 points previously.

Look for Cleveland’s defense to shine and its dangerous rushing tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to shrink the second half and keep this one under the posted total.

Our Pick: Chi/Cle Under 45.5 

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Chiefs vs. Chargers

Nobody enjoys betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. However, they have not been a good cover team for quite some time, are consistently overvalued, and find themselves in a bad situation this week against their AFC West division rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers.

Since Week 9 of the 2020 season, the Chiefs are 10-3 SU, but have covered just one spread, winning the other nine games by less than what they are spotting the Chargers here. In fact, last season, they were 9-0 SU in one-score games, but failed to cover a single spread in those nine outings.

And, for all of his seeming infallibility, Mahomes is interestingly just 10-9 ATS versus the AFC West in his career, as well as only 5-4 ATS after a SU loss. Also, you have to wonder if any part of Andy Reid might be glancing ahead to a trip to his old stomping grounds next week for his team’s game in Philadelphia. Evidence suggests he might be, as he won and covered both meetings against the Eagles since his firing, but failed to cover the one non-opener his Chiefs played ahead of a trip to Philly. Also worth a mention, Reid is just 60-98-5 ATS in one-score games in his coaching career, including just 3-30-2 ATS when those games saw his teams favored in a divisional game.

Kansas City has covered just two of its last 12 games as a favorite and one of its last seven at home, including a 1-5 ATS record in its last six as a home favorite.

Look a bit deeper and you will see that KC is just 1-10 ATS as home favorites of less than seven points against .500 or above opposition. The Chiefs have also covered just two of their last 10 after an ATS loss and one of their last seven against AFC West opponents.

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The Chargers could prove the perfect foil for the Chiefs here. Los Angeles has struggled to stop the run thus far, but faces a Chiefs offense that is the fourth worst rushing bunch in the NFL to date. Furthermore, lead back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has struggled in the early going, on top of the fact that the entire organization has to be questioning ever taking the ball out of Mahomes’ hands after what went down in the loss to Baltimore on Sunday night. And, if that’s KC’s chosen path, they’ll have to do it against the league’s fourth best pass yardage defense, as the Chargers allow just 177.0 yards per game thus far.

Los Angeles has a track record for being in every game, as the team had just two losses by more than one score last season. The Chargers have lost just three of their last 11 road games against the spread and are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 as road dogs. More specifically, they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games as divisional road dogs, including 9-1 ATS against a division opponent that is not off a double-digit win.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Pick

The Chiefs have only covered one of the last five head-to-head meetings with the Chargers, as well as just one of the last six meetings between the two in Kansas City. Look for the road team in this rivalry to move to 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings as the Chargers keep things close once again.

Our Pick: Los Angeles +6.5

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