Predicting the top 10 of first 2021 Playoff rankings

Honestly, it’s gonna be a mess.

The first Playoff rankings are going to reflect the chaos we’ve already seen this year. We have stunning unbeaten Power 5 teams like Michigan State and Wake Forest, and preseason favorites like Alabama and Ohio State already with a loss as a double-digit favorites, and then we have Georgia.

OK, so we know Georgia is going to be No. 1. But that’s about all we know.

Are we sure that unbeaten Oklahoma is going to be No. 2? Or will the selection committee roll with Alabama, Cincinnati or even Michigan State? It feels like we’re bracing for a 2-7 that’s all over the place. Is 1-loss Ohio State going to be ranked ahead of 1-loss Oregon?

Thankfully, I don’t have a seat at the selection committee table. I will, however, pretend that I do in order to predict how Tuesday’s first Playoff rankings (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) will play out.

Remember, this is what I think will happen, not necessarily what I think should happen.

10. Wake Forest

On one hand, an undefeated Power 5 team in November should be a no-brainer to be in the Top 10 of the first Playoff rankings. On the other hand, Wake Forest is the lone ACC team in the AP Top 25 and its best win this season came against 3-loss Virginia. Those who play the “disrespect card” for the Demon Deacons will conveniently leave out the latter. Wake Forest could essentially get Group of 5 treatment from the selection committee.

9. Notre Dame

If you looked at the Irish’s résumé about a decade ago, you’d be blown away. Wins at Florida State, at Virginia Tech, home vs. USC and a neutral-site win against Wisconsin. Not bad at all. And hey, if you ignore the fact that Cincinnati is a Group of 5 team, you’d see that the Irish’s lone blemish is against the No. 2 team in the AP Top 25. But Notre Dame doesn’t have a single win against a team currently ranked. That should keep the 1-loss Irish in that second tier within the top 10.

8. Michigan

What a missed opportunity Saturday was for the Wolverines. Had the respected Michigan defense held Kenneth Walker to 4 touchdowns instead of 5, we’d be talking about a top-5 ranking. Instead, the selection committee will see a résumé that’s almost identical to Notre Dame’s. That is: 1 loss, 0 wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams and a loss to a top-5 team. The slight difference was that Michigan’s loss came on the road and it was by single digits. Losing control of its path to Indianapolis was a brutal way to enter November for Jim Harbaugh’s squad.

7. Oregon

I’m pre-mad about this. Yes, Oregon should be ranked ahead of Ohio State. Both are 1-loss teams. The Ducks went to Columbus and beat the Buckeyes and did so without arguably their 2 best defensive players. But I expect the selection committee to point to Oregon’s average margin of victory vs. Power 5 opponents (9.2) and say that Ohio State “passed the eye test” because it beat up on a bunch of teams with 3-plus losses (25.2 is Ohio State’s average margin of victory vs. Power 5 teams). Foolish? Yes. Here’s hoping the selection committee actually values head-to-head with teams that have lost the same amount of games.

6. Ohio State

I’ll spare you another rant and instead give you the side-by-side comp:

Again, if we’re gonna sit here and act like playing a game doesn’t matter, let’s just roll with the preseason rankings and skip to the Playoff. You can tell me that Ohio State improved. Cool. It whipped Big Ten East cellar-dwellers and then had to grind out a 9-point win at home to a Penn State squad that just lost to Illinois. Let’s not reward Ohio State for playing in the Big Ten East until it actually beats Michigan and Michigan State.

5. Alabama

Here’s my thinking on this. The selection committee could very well have Alabama in the top 4 to start. But it often likes to let things play out before making definitive decisions. By putting Alabama in the top 3 and ahead of Cincinnati, one would think that would be a death sentence for the Bearcats based on the remaining strength of schedule. The Tide have an average margin of victory against Power 5 foes of +19.8, and there’s only 1 win against the current AP Top 25. Strength of loss isn’t the dealbreaker that some make it out to be, but it helps that Texas A&M is back in the top 15.

If the selection committee does indeed have Alabama in the top 4 because it passed the “eye test,” it would be ignoring the fact that Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee were all within a score of the Tide in the 4th quarter. Fortunately for Alabama, a potential top-15 Auburn team could await in the Iron Bowl and a win there would set up the ultimate résumé booster against No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta. But let’s hold off on saying 2-loss Alabama would make the Playoff.

4. Cincinnati

Ranking Cincinnati at No. 4 creates the most intrigue there’s ever been for a Group of 5 team. Period. It allows us to ask the question, “can the Bearcats get in if they win out?” I believe the answer to that question is “yes” because of how well that Notre Dame road win has held up. That’s a double-digit road win against a team currently ranked in the AP Top 10. Nobody else in all of college football has a win like that. Remember that when people fire off tweets like this:

Cincinnati is one of six remaining undefeated teams in the FBS, but even at 13-0, its playoff resume would be worse than any of the CFP teams in the first 6 yrs of the CFP, according to @ESPNStatsInfo 9 FBS teams would have a better resume even w/ 1 loss.

— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) October 31, 2021

Why play the games, man. The Bearcats have arguably the 3rd most impressive victory in the country right now — I’d give Oregon at Ohio State and A&M beating Alabama slightly more credit — and they won by double digits in both of their Power 5 games. Their overall average margin of victory is 25.6 points, yet I’m bracing for someone to say that beating Tulane by 19 on the road is a major knock … when Oklahoma beat the Green Wave by 5 … in Norman. Cincinnati was ranked No. 7 in the first Playoff rankings last year, which was the highest starting ranking ever for a Group of 5 team (UCF didn’t start in the top 10 in 2017 or 2018). That’ll be a different story this year.

3. Michigan State

I think you could make the case for the Spartans at No. 2. I expect them to get the bump ahead of 1-loss Alabama and Ohio State because of that Michigan win. In fact, if I were doing the rankings, that’s how I’d go. But I think some preseason confirmation bias will prevent Mel Tucker’s team from being ranked ahead of Oklahoma even though the side-by-side favors the Spartans:

But I expect the selection committee to argue that the Sooners are an improved team with Caleb Williams at quarterback. Never mind the fact that Kenneth Walker deserves to be a more viable Heisman Trophy candidate having, you know, played in all the games. Still, don’t let that stop Oklahoma from getting the 2014 Florida State treatment.

2. Oklahoma

I’ll say this. Nobody should complain about being undefeated at this point of the season. Oklahoma deserves credit for surviving some scares. Lincoln Riley deserves credit, too. Benching Spencer Rattler couldn’t have been easy. But when you look at it like this, you’ll realize that there’s a whole lot of preseason confirmation bias that’ll work in the Sooners’ favor:

But hey, let’s hear how much better Oklahoma is based on the move to Williams. Let’s ignore the nail-biter against Kansas and pretend like the Sooners are worthy of being the No. 2 team in America. I mean, come on. One win against a Power 5 team with a winning record and an average margin of victory vs. Power 5 teams of just +12.4. Oklahoma will likely get that No. 2 spot and if it does, it’ll easily be the worst résumé we’ve ever seen for the No. 2 team in the first Playoff poll.

1. Georgia

Yeah, there shouldn’t be any doubt, here. The Dawgs’ average margin of victory against Power 5 competition is +28.7. On the year, Georgia’s defense allowed a total of 46 points — remember to remove the non-offensive touchdown scored by UAB — in 8 games. That’s 5.8 points per game for those keeping track at home. And in case you were wondering, UGA now has 2 wins against the current AP Top 25, and both were by 3 scores. There’s no debate here.