Realistic fan expectations and nightmare scenarios for every SEC team in the 2022 NCAA Tournament

Let’s be realistic.

There’s a good chance that you or someone you know is about to have their heart broken in the NCAA Tournament. To be clear, we’re not talking about brackets. In all likelihood everyone reading this will have their hearts broken via a busted bracket.

But March Sadness hits that much harder when a team has actual expectations. Of course, not everyone should be bracing for a Final Four berth and not everyone should be bracing for a 1st round exit.

That’s why we’re here today. What’s realistic? What isn’t?

Realistic isn’t a 2-seed dropping to a 15-seed. That’s only happened 9 times in NCAA history. I don’t want to bore you with math, but that’s rare. Really rare.

A 6-seed winning a national title isn’t realistic. Only 1 of the 21 national champs this century was seeded worse than 1-3. It’s not that it can’t be done, but we’re trying to keep this in the range of realistic scenarios.

Here’s what that looks like for every SEC team in the field:

Alabama

Realistic fan expectation — Win a game

Realistic nightmare scenario — Blown out in Round 1

Be honest, Alabama fans. Having watched this team for 4-plus months, are you expecting this maddeningly inconsistent group to win consecutive games this week? I’m not. I would say just winning an NCAA Tournament game in consecutive seasons for the first time in the 21st century is much more likely. Maybe if Oats went into each game telling his team it was the No. 1 overall seed, it would be better for it. That upside is there. Unfortunately, so is the downside.

It seems fairly possible that the Tide go ice cold from 3-point range and go 1-and-done in the NCAA Tournament. No Power 5 team chucks as many 3-pointers as Oats’ squad. That’s the style. Unfortunately, that style doesn’t do a ton of a good when you shoot it at 30.2% and you’re not even among the top 300 teams nationally. Six of those losses came to non-NCAA Tournament teams, including the Georgia loss when Alabama shot 26.5% from deep and turned the ball over 19 times against a team who won 1 SEC game all year.

Who knows, though. It feels strange to put such a limited range on such a roller coaster team.

Arkansas

Realistic fan expectation — Reach Sweet 16, play Gonzaga tough

Realistic nightmare scenario — Round 1 loss to Vermont

It feels like Arkansas walked to Buffalo and climbed uphill through a mountain of snow. Not really, but getting put in a region with potentially 2 Northeast teams (Vermont and UConn) seems like a challenging draw when Arkansas was already put in the same bracket as No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga.

To be clear, Arkansas has been undeniably one of the best teams in the country since mid-January. JD Notae has become that go-to scorer, Jaylin Williams has been a glue guy/double-double machine, and the bench contributions from microwave scorer Chris Lykes have been huge.

It’s perfectly within reason to assume that a team with plenty of experience from last year’s Elite 8 squad can fend off a mid-major from a 1-bid league and a UConn program in search of its first Sweet 16 berth in 8 years. Like last year against eventual-national champ Baylor in the Elite 8, Arkansas absolutely held its own. There’s a path to a similar ending against Gonzaga.

But it’s hard not to think Vermont has a puncher’s chance of pulling off an opening-round upset. We saw Arkansas get off to that dreadful start in the first half against Colgate. The Catamounts just keep bringing it. Like a typical mid-major, they can get hot from deep in a hurry. At the same time, it’s a contrast of styles with the fast-paced Hogs against a more half-court Vermont offense. If the Catamounts get Arkansas out of its flow and get quality looks in the half-court, it’s by no means a given that we see Eric Musselman’s team even sniff that potential Gonzaga matchup.

Auburn

Realistic fan expectation — Sweet 16

Realistic nightmare scenario — Round of 32 loss

Look. I get it. This was supposed to be a storybook year. Auburn was going to right the wrong of 2019 and cut down the nets. An SEC regular-season title, the first AP No. 1 ranking in school history, the Bruce Pearl extension … it was all lining up. But again, we’re being realistic. Expectations have changed. Auburn’s last win against an NCAA Tournament team was Feb. 1. Since then, Auburn lost 4 games, including its first game of the SEC Tournament. We’ve never seen a team lose a conference tournament quarterfinal and then go on to win a national title.

(The ESPN broadcast said that 1985 Villanova did that, but the Wildcats reached the Big East semifinals that year.)

So what does that mean? It means that if Auburn gets through opening weekend, there should be a loud exhale heard from The Plains.

Of course, if Auburn doesn’t get more from its guards, that won’t happen. We saw against A&M that the Tiger backcourt can absolutely shoot itself out of a game against lesser competition. Perhaps Walker Kessler’s shoulder will appreciate a little bit of extra rest. He’ll need it against Isaiah Mobley if USC earns that Round 2 matchup. Mobley doesn’t operate like Kessler, but he can do next-level things all over the court.

Whatever the case, Auburn needs to figure out its non-Jabari Smith elements and fast. March doesn’t forgive those who peak too early.

Kentucky

Realistic fan expectation — Final Four

Realistic nightmare scenario — Sweet 16 loss

That sounds lofty because it is. If Kentucky missed the Final Four, that fan base would be bummed in a major way. I can’t say I’d blame it. Rarely does John Calipari have a collection of veteran talent like this one. This team feels like it has March DNA, and if it were to fail to end Kentucky’s Final Four drought (2016-present), that would be considered a knock on Calipari’s legacy.

The good news for the Cats is that the path is absolutely there. Top-seed Baylor has a significantly different group than the one that cut down the nets last year, and there’s no guarantee a banged up team gets past a talented UCLA squad in the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Kentucky would face mid-majors to get through the opening weekend, and then it could draw a Purdue team who is nothing to write home about defensively (No. 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom).

But that’s also the worst-case scenario. Purdue actually has the more decorated future NBA player in Jaden Ivey. Could he take over in a moment’s notice? Absolutely. Zach Edey also has the size to handle Oscar Tshiebwe, so perhaps Kentucky could get out of sorts. Also possible? A Chris Beard-coached Texas squad finally lives up to that preseason potential and gets hot at the right time to get past Purdue and knock off Kentucky.

There’s no doubt that the bar is sky-high in Lexington, which is why perhaps no SEC team would have greater early-round disappointment with a loss than Kentucky.

LSU

Realistic fan expectation — Win a game

Realistic nightmare scenario — Look like a team with an interim coach in a 1st-round loss

How do you assume anything with LSU after Will Wade was fired? Anything positive is a win. That includes beating an Iowa State team who went 7-11 in conference play. It’s not a guarantee that LSU will show up in the right headspace after a week of change. How much can veterans like Xavier Pinson and Darius Days rally the troops? Nobody knows. LSU handled Wade’s postseason suspension well in 2019, but Wade was still with the program. This is a different ballgame.

There’s a possibility that LSU shows up like a team that’s totally checked out. This entire roster was recruited by Wade, and they got to this point by playing hard-nosed defense. It’s a totally different team than the Cam Thomas show of 2021. If LSU wins and then comes up just short in a Round of 32 game, it wouldn’t be surprising. Keep in mind that Wisconsin might be dealing with a banged-up Johnny Davis.

But any sort of NCAA Tournament pulse should be considered a win in a post-Wade world.

Tennessee

Realistic fan expectation — Elite 8

Realistic nightmare scenario — Round of 32 loss to an “us against the world” Michigan team

It’s not realistic to expect that Tennessee is about to make its first Final Four in school history. Would it be stunning? Absolutely not. There aren’t 4 teams hotter than the Vols right now. Even though the selection committee clearly didn’t watch the SEC Tournament, it didn’t change the fact that Tennessee rolled through the field in Tampa. Rick Barnes’ team defends well, it distributes at a high level and it has an emerging star in Kennedy Chandler.

It’s perfectly realistic to think that this program, despite the 3-seed, can go as far as any Tennessee team has ever gone.

Having said that, that nightmare scenario exists. It starts with an “M” and ends with “ichigan.” Should Juwan Howard’s postgame punch/slap be a rallying cry? Probably not. Had the Wolverines made a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, there’d be much more buzz about the Wolverines as a potential giant-killer. Instead, they blew a 17-point lead in the opening round and had to sweat out Selection Sunday. But Hunter Dickinson is a unique matchup, especially on a quick turnaround. There are plenty of key contributors from last year’s Elite 8 squad, and Tennessee would be treated like Michigan’s Super Bowl.

More rational, though, is a streaking Tennessee team should realistically expect to be dancing deep into March.