There's a wild national championship bet that speaks to the expected top-heaviness of 2022

If you’re one of those people who like to scroll through FanDuel and check out future college football bets, you might’ve glossed right over it. It’s OK. It’s July. You don’t have to be in midseason form yet.

But make no mistake, this bet is worthy of a 2nd, 3rd and 4th look. It’s that crazy to comprehend.

It’s pretty simple. Here. I took a screenshot from FanDuel just to show you I wasn’t making this up:

That’s right. You can bet on the trio of Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State to win the national title … and only get -340 on your money if it hits. In other words, if you bet $100 on the national champion to come from those 3 teams and hit, you’d only get $29.41.

Meanwhile, if you simply took the 127 other FBS teams to win it all, you could get +270 if that hits. Welcome to 2022, wherein you can nearly triple your money by betting on a non-Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State national champion.

Telling.

The top-heavy nature of the 2022 preseason outlook certainly lends itself to that. Barring an injury to a starting quarterback, the AP Top 25 heading into the season will be Alabama at No. 1 with Georgia and Ohio State being pretty interchangeable at No. 2 and No. 3.

After that? Good luck. I can poke multiple holes in any team you say could win it all.

CLEMSON
- DJ Uiagalelei finished outside the top 100 in QB rating
- What about Cade Klubnik? Trevor Lawrence is the only true freshman QB start and win a title in last 35 years
- Both coordinators gone
- Transfer portal is a 1-way street (and not the good kind)
- Defense ranks No. 89 in FBS in percentage of returning production
OKLAHOMA
- First-time head coach
- Ranks No. 117 in percentage of returning offensive production
- Lost 8 transfers to Power 5 schools
- 0-4 in Playoff games
NOTRE DAME
- First-time head coach
- Ranks No. 93 in percentage of returning production
- Since 1999, Notre Dame is 2-21 vs. AP Top 5 teams
TEXAS A&M
- Hasn’t finished in AP Top 3 since 1939
- Hasn’t played for conference title in 21st century
- Lost DC Mike Elko & ranks No. 91 in percentage of returning defensive production
- Went 4-4 in SEC play in 2021
USC
- Transfer portal victories aside, it’s still a 4-win team who ranks No. 94 in percentage of returning production
- Caleb Williams averaged 6.4 yards/attempt and took 4.3 sacks per game vs. top-70 defenses
- USC’s defense finished No. 103 in scoring
- Massive question marks at the line of scrimmage

What about trendy, lesser historic teams like Baylor, NC State and Utah, you ask? That’s just a question of talent.

Since 2015, there are 9 teams that made the Playoff with rosters that ranked outside the top 10 in the 247sports talent composite. Those teams are 1-8 … and the lone win came in 2015 when Clemson (No. 13 in 247sports talent composite) beat Oklahoma (No. 16 in 247sports talent composite) in the semifinal. In other words, we’ve never seen a Playoff team outside the top 10 in talent composite beat a team inside the top 10 since 247sports started tracking that in 2015.

With all due respect to Baylor, NC State and Utah (I actually have Utah reaching the Playoff), they don’t have the talent to win it all. They’ll rank well outside the top 10 in the talent composite — Utah was the highest among those teams last year at No. 32 nationally — once again.

As for Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State? Yeah, they have the talent to win it all.

In 2021, they accounted for 49 of the 125 (39%) FBS players who entered college as 5-star recruits. They ranked 1-3 in 247sports talent composite last year … and the year before that … and the year before that … and the year before that. The last time 1 of those teams failed to crack the top 3 in the talent composite rankings was 2017 when No. 3 USC barely snuck in past No. 4 Georgia, which still went on to play for a national title.

Not surprisingly, of the 10 national championship invites from that stretch (2017-21), 7 of them went to those 3 teams.

It’s not breaking news to say those teams are clearly a cut above the competition. It’s perhaps just magnified this year.

Coaching turnover at premier programs is a big part of that, too. All of these programs have new head coaches in 2022:

Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oregon
USC
Florida
LSU
Miami
Virginia Tech

All 8 of those programs played in a national championship game in the 21st century (don’t forget that Virginia Tech’s 1999 squad technically played for the title game on Jan. 4, 2000). We’ve never seen so many proud programs have coaching turnover like that in the same cycle. That’s why disappointing 2021 teams like Clemson and A&M are getting thrust into the top 5 despite those major question marks.

And sure, it helps that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State all return their respective starting quarterbacks, 2 of which made it to New York for the Heisman ceremony while the other torched Nick Saban’s defense in the 4th quarter of a national championship en route to delivering his program its first title in 41 years. Returning starting quarterbacks tend to skew preseason rankings a bit, but the top-heavy outlook for those 3 goes well beyond that.

This is about the oddsmakers recognizing that in the past 5 years, Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State soared past the competition both in acquiring talent and developing it. It would be a significant upset if a team outside of that trio won a national title. Hence, why that gambling number is what it is.

Dare I say, -340 for an Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State national champ is a better bet than the alternative. If you want to bet the field, be my guest. My advice would at least be to get the +480 odds for the field to beat out that trio and Clemson. That still feels like it’s throwing away money.

The smarter move is not overthinking an obvious (and fair) 2022 projection. The top 3 are in a class of its own.

Bet on it.

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