We did it. Football is upon us.

Be gone, talking season. You were fun while you lasted.

At 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night, the first SEC game will be off and running. Granted, it’s Vandy at Hawaii in a game that won’t crack 10,000 fans (the stadium capacity is 9,300).

But hey, that still counts as the start of SEC football.

Over the course of these last 8 months, I’ve written/talked/tweeted about an overwhelming number of topics related to the SEC and the season that awaits. Call them random thoughts. Call them brilliant revelations. I don’t care. Your pick.

As the SEC begins its 2022 season, I put some of my most prevalent 2022 thoughts in this here column to get you ready for 2022:

Stop saying 2022 is “win or bust” for Jimbo Fisher

It ain’t.

You know how I know it ain’t? Because nobody in their right mind is paying a coach $86 million to walk away. That’s how much Fisher would be owed if he was somehow fired at the end of the 2022 season. On his current contract, which was agreed upon before the 2021 season and paid him $94,950,000, Fisher won’t have a buyout less than $50 million until AFTER the 2026 season.

For whatever reason, we have a difficult time separating what “pressure” actually is as it relates to coaches. Is there pressure on Fisher to deliver A&M its first national title since 1939? You bet. The dude was presented a future national championship plaque before he ever coached a game in College Station.

But Fisher’s championship window is from 2023-24, or rather, once that historic recruiting class he signed in 2022 is actually experienced in the SEC (maybe it extends into 2025 depending on how many of those 2022 recruits are still around). If he goes 8-4 again this year, Fisher isn’t going anywhere.

Neither are the Kevin Sumlin comps if that happens.

I’m incredibly interested in how 2022 plays out for Spencer Rattler, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson

For my money, you could make the case that they’re the 3 most fascinating quarterbacks not just in the SEC, but in all of college football.

Rattler’s intrigue is obvious. He got benched at Oklahoma and never lived up to his future No. 1 overall pick projection, which led to him reuniting with Shane Beamer at South Carolina. How Rattler deals with the ebbs and flows of SEC play is going to be appointment viewing. The talent is still there — he had a better quarterback rating than Trevor Lawrence in 2020 — but how Rattler bounces back remains a question. For all his struggles in 2021, he never lost a start. How he handles that game to game is a mystery.

Levis isn’t a mystery, but he became a lot more intriguing when he started showing up as a future top-10 pick in all of these way-too-early 2023 mock drafts. The Kentucky signal-caller flashed promise in his first season as a full-time starter after transferring from Penn State. Does he take another step with a full offseason as the guy? Or does the way-too-early projection become a punchline by season’s end? I’ll bet on the former, but plenty of skepticism follows Levis into 2022.

And what about Richardson? Like, the dude who started off averaging more than 20 yards per play until he got hurt last year. Ultimately, we only saw Richardson get 2 games with regular passing attempts. So how does Richardson, who was electric at times but also averaged 1 interception per 13 throws, develop as Billy Napier’s starter? There’s no denying he’s got Dak Prescott-level upside. The question is if he can cut down on the mistakes and put it all together.

Nobody should be surprised if any of those 3 SEC East signal-callers end up as All-SEC quarterbacks by season’s end.

Oh, and add Kayshon Boutte and Arik Gilbert into that group of “most intriguing SEC players”

Why? Both are extremely talented former 5-star guys from the 2020 class. Actually, they’re both from LSU’s 2020 class. The former is still at LSU after an eventful offseason while the latter is at Georgia after, well, an eventful offseason of his own.

Boutte’s path to an All-American season has potential potholes. He’s coming off 2 ankle surgeries following an All-American start to his sophomore season in 2021. He nearly entered the transfer portal until a last-minute NIL deal prevented that. Brian Kelly said in the spring that he “learned Boutte’s last name” and that they were building a relationship. On top of that, Max Johnson, AKA the LSU quarterback who almost exclusively targeted Boutte, is off to A&M. If Boutte stays healthy and in good standing with Kelly for a full season, that’d be a huge win for LSU.

As for Gilbert, his 2021 season was a redshirt year. He didn’t dress for the national champs and dealt with academic and conditioning issues. Kirby Smart revealed in spring that Gilbert ballooned to 300 pounds and that he had cut back down to a much more durable 250 pounds. Gilbert is the highest-rated tight end recruit ever, and he looked the part during his true freshman season at LSU as well as Georgia’s spring game. He’s now part of the most talented tight end room in the country.

Speaking of that group …

Please let the Cedric Tillman-Hendon Hooker & Stetson Bennett-Brock Bowers connections be everything I think they can be

Those are the top returning connections in the SEC, and frankly, it’s not even close. Nobody would’ve predicted that at this time last year. Tillman came out of nowhere and had a 1,000-yard season. He also tied a Tennessee record for most games with a receiving touchdown (7) while Bowers became the best offensive player on a national championship-winning team as a true freshman tight end.

So what’s in store for both connections in 2022? That’s a good question. Tillman and Hooker might have the higher projection just because they got a full offseason together this time around. Neither of them are just battling for reps the same way that they were last year. Then again, you could say the same thing about Bennett and Bowers. It was clear that Bennett targeted Bowers heavily in those rare obvious passing situations, like we saw with UGA down in the SEC Championship. The question with them is how much Georgia’s crowded group of pass-catchers will cut into Bowers’ target share.

Both Tennessee and Georgia have rarely had that go-to quarterback-pass catcher connection in the last decade. Dare I say, they each have one of the most promising duos returning in college football.

It’ll be fun to see who has the most Billy Madison player of 2022 (a transfer who pops)

As in “Man, I’m glad I called that guy.”

I’ll predict that it’ll be at running back, where the SEC added the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), Zach Evans (Ole Miss), Ulysses Bentley (Ole Miss), Ramon Jefferson (Kentucky), Nate Peat (Mizzou), Montrell Johnson (Florida) and Noah Cain (LSU). Gibbs and Evans are the 2 most obvious candidates to become stars in their new offenses after both played for bad teams in 2021.

But don’t sleep on the possibility of Jefferson, who transferred from Sam Houston State, becoming a breakout star with Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez facing suspension. Jefferson was a third-team FCS All-American. And while Bentley and Johnson both came from the Group of 5 ranks, their schemes should yield heavy production for multiple backs.

Ten other candidates for the Billy Madison player of 2022 are:

  • Tyler Harrell, Alabama WR
  • Drew Sanders, Arkansas DE
  • Eli Ricks, Alabama CB
  • Tayvion Robinson, Kentucky WR
  • Spencer Rattler, South Carolina QB
  • O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida OL
  • Jermaine Burton, Alabama WR
  • Michael Trigg, Ole Miss TE
  • Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss QB
  • Max Johnson, Texas A&M

There’s too favorable of surroundings for the SEC to lack elite receivers

Why do I bring that up? Because while Boutte is getting national preseason recognition — Tillman should be but he isn’t getting much national love — it does feel like there are a lack of household names at receiver. What do I mean by that?

Here are the SEC’s top returning receivers in terms of career receiving yards (only counting yards in the SEC):

  1. Jaden Walley (Mississippi State), 1,346 yards
  2. Ainias Smith (Texas A&M), 1,321 yards
  3. Austin Williams (Mississippi State), 1,245 yards
  4. Kayshon Boutte (LSU), 1,244 yards
  5. Cedric Tillman (Tennessee), 1,205 yards
  6. Josh Vann (South Carolina), 1,056 yards
  7. Jaray Jenkins (LSU), 966 yards
  8. Tauskie Dove (Mizzou), 924 yards
  9. Jermaine Burton (Alabama), 901 yards
  10. Jonathan Mingo (Ole Miss), 897 yards

If you knew that Walley was the SEC’s active leader in career receiving yards, kudos to you. You’re also probably a liar.

But it’s also worth remembering that the SEC’s top 2 receivers (in terms of yards) in 2021 were transfers Jameson Williams and Wan’Dale Robinson. Both of them had more yards than Walley’s career total of 1,346 yards. Both Williams and Robinson thrived in their new offenses in part because they were extremely talented and lethal in the open field, but also because they had next-level quarterbacks and next-level schemes.

Given how many SEC teams have modernized their offenses since 2019 and what we expect at the quarterback position this year — it’s the deepest group of returning QBs since at least 2013 — that should yield some big-time receivers. The SEC is in the midst of a golden age at the position from a college production standpoint (3 of the last 4 Biletnikoff Award winners were from the SEC) and with the NFL Draft. That’s not a coincidence.

My guess is that there’s a couple of breakout candidates within that group outside of Boutte and Tillman. Like last year, we could also see transfers step in and become all-conference players.

Don’t let the lack of household names at the position fool you.

I promise not to rush to judgement (good or bad) with Brian Kelly or Billy Napier

We’re going to have an all-time bad year when it comes to evaluating first-year head coaches. Why? Eight programs who played in national championships in the 21st century have a new head coach:

  • Florida
  • LSU
  • Oregon
  • Oklahoma
  • Miami (FL)
  • Notre Dame
  • Virginia Tech
  • USC

Whether it’s Napier and Kelly or 1 of those 6 other coaches, we’re going to want to either crown or dismiss them based on how Year 1 shakes out. What does history tell us? Year 1 is vastly overrated when it comes to projecting a coach’s future. Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen won 10 games. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart won 7 and 8, respectively. Gus Malzahn led Auburn to a national championship berth and then had one of the most herky-jerky tenures we’ve seen in the SEC.

If Kelly or Napier are fighting for bowl eligibility deep into November, I won’t be stunned. I have them both projected to go 7-5, and admittedly, that’s a bit of a hedge. LSU relied more heavily on the transfer portal than Florida did, but one plays in the SEC West and one doesn’t.

More important for both is that they establish their offensive identity, they don’t have a 1-way street with the transfer portal and they make significant inroads with recruiting in their respective states. Those 3 things are more important than what the final 2022 record says.

I know you’ve got Bama fatigue, but don’t take Will Anderson and Bryce Young for granted

Why? Because they’re both incredibly fun to watch and they’ll likely be making a ton of money to play on Sundays by this time next year.

Anderson in 2021 felt like DeVonta Smith in 2020. That is, a guy who could already be dominating in the NFL who was somehow still allowed to play against college athletes. Somehow, 34.5 tackles for loss wasn’t enough to get to New York. Anderson shouldn’t need to reproduce that type of production to get that type of recognition this year.

Everyone wants to know if Young can repeat. Nobody has even been able to attempt a repeat Heisman season since Lamar Jackson in 2017. Jackson still got to New York and finished 3rd in the voting, but ultimately, he couldn’t beat out Baker Mayfield even though he nearly delivered the exact same production. So then what does that mean for Young? Is he going to get picked apart if he has anything less than his pre-Heisman production? That’s silly, but it’s probably reality.

Here’s what that Young’s pre-Heisman numbers were:

  • 43-4 TD-INT
  • 4,322 passing yards
  • 9.4 yards per attempt
  • 3 rushing touchdowns

Young actually played deep into games because Alabama was in a 1-score game in the 4th quarter in 6 of 8 SEC contests. Maybe there’s some natural regression if games are put away much earlier. Whatever the case, Young is well on his way to being considered one of the best 21st century quarterbacks we’ve seen in college football. That’ll be true whether he repeats or not.

Let’s just not be lazy and say that Young and Anderson regressed in the event that their gaudy 2021 numbers aren’t matched. They’re incredible. Even Nick Saban admitted he’s never had 2 guys returning as accomplished as they are.

Young and Anderson deserve a swan song. My guess is they’ll get it in a big way.

There’s a difference between saying what I hope Bryan Harsin’s future will be vs. what I think his future will be

Know this, Auburn fans. I want Harsin to get a Year 3. I loved his post-February response to the coup after his 6-win Year 1. If there was a class on how a big-time college football coach should respond to a coup to get him fired, Harsin could teach it. He became more personable, he became more direct and ultimately, he could become a better coach.

But do I think Harsin will get a Year 3? I don’t. I don’t because in addition to his revolving door of coordinators, that quarterback situation makes me uneasy. Would you bank on anyone in that group to lead a 9-3 season? I wouldn’t. I also wouldn’t bank on Auburn having the depth in the trenches to win games late in SEC play. Maybe I’d feel differently if Georgia and Alabama were coming to Jordan-Hare this year, but that’s not the case.

I’m not dumb enough to think a miracle season on The Plains is impossible. It’s always possible. But possible and likely are 2 different things. I don’t think we can realistically say it’s likely that Harsin, who clearly still has people above him who want him gone, is going to surpass a last-place SEC West projection and keep his job.

Honestly, I hope I’m wrong.

I still think the SEC boasts 2 of 3 teams who can win it all

Sorry, non-Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia fans. I don’t see a title for your program. Your team lacks either the talent, the coaching or the skill at the game’s most important position.

It’s gone somewhat unnoticed just how few teams can actually win it all in the Playoff in the 4-team system. Winning roughly 14 games in a season with 3 against top-10 teams to finish the year ain’t easy. It’s not surprising that the 3 teams who dominated the recruiting rankings the last 4 years are easily the top 3 returning teams in the sport.

But it’s not just that. Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State also return their starting quarterbacks, all of whom ranked in the top 7 in quarterback rating last year. Even with all the talent that each of those programs lost to the NFL, they still are heads and shoulders above the competition. And if you don’t believe that’s the case, well:

  • Alabama: Played in 6 of the last 7 national titles and won 3 of them
  • Georgia: Defending national champs w/ 5 consecutive AP Top 7 finishes
  • Ohio State: Is 23-1 vs. the Big Ten and 12-4 vs. AP Top 25 teams under Ryan Day (including interim numbers)

And remember the stat from earlier. So many of those usual contenders have coaching changes. It’s not necessarily impossible to see a first-year head coach win it all, though that hasn’t happened since Larry Coker in 2001.

Maybe that’s the type of surprise season that we’re in for. Perhaps instead of those 3 favorites, we’ll get a 2007-like year of chaos. We can only hope.

Give us your best shot, 2022.