A month’s worth of football is behind us, and all the things we thought we knew … well, sometimes we were right, sometimes not as much. How do we see the SEC regular season shaping up? Here are our thoughts about every team after Week 4.

West

Alabama: 11-1

Yes, Alabama looked more like the Alabama we all know and remember. But it’s hard to make much out of blowouts of UL-Monroe and Vandy. The next 2 weeks — at Arkansas, then home against Texas A&M — will tell us whether they should be moved back to 12-0 or even if 10-2 could be on the table. For now, we’ll continue to predict 1 loss, but we’ll be watching closely.

Arkansas: 9-3

A tough loss to A&M probably takes the Razorbacks out of contention for a 10-win regular season. Alabama next is tough, and while the Hogs’ remaining road games should be easier than A&M, it seems like somebody else will take Arkansas down in league play, or even at BYU.

Auburn: 5-7

Yes, the Tigers won. That’s about it for good news, because this kind of performance won’t yield many more wins. With 4 tough road games remaining, LSU is almost a must-win for Auburn to harbor realistic bowl expectations. As it is, we’ll be pretty cautious on that front.

LSU: 7-5

LSU’s game at Auburn is big for both teams because if the Tigers can start 4-1, they have a realistic shot at a winning record this year. On the other hand, falling to 3-2 with Tennessee, at Florida, and Ole Miss looming would make things pretty dicey on that front.

Mississippi State: 7-5

Mississippi State’s 3-1 start could similarly be a springboard to even 8 regular-season wins … or could leave them 5-7. Home games in the next 2 weeks against A&M and Arkansas are both big. State doesn’t want to travel to Kentucky at 3-3, because with that game and at Alabama, State’s shot at a bowl would then likely come down to the Egg Bowl. But again, win one or the other of those next 2 and State’s a player for the middle-high echelon of the West.

Ole Miss: 10-2

The Rebels escaped a one-score win over Tulsa, but it’s the kind of game that just underlines the significance of their home game next week with Kentucky. It’s fair to wonder if either team has played anybody good yet, and a win will vault one or the other into actual CFP contention. But the loser will have plenty of work left in its own division.

Texas A&M: 10-2

By taking down Arkansas, the Aggies leave open a decent shot at 10-2. Their toughest non-Alabama game left could be next week’s matchup with Mississippi State. Ole Miss and LSU have to come to College Station. With a pair of big wins in the past 2 weeks, the Aggies have re-emerged on the West scene.

East

Florida: 7-5

Eastern Washington should help the Gators get right, and with home games with Missouri and LSU to follow, Florida could well hit the UGA game at 5-2. Finishing the season with home vs. Carolina, then at Vandy and at FSU isn’t a bad look, either.

Georgia: 12-0

Georgia looked surprisingly human. But we’re not fooled. They’re going 12-0 until somebody shows us otherwise.

Kentucky: 9-3

Kentucky’s matchup in Oxford next week is their biggest game since the matchup with Georgia in 2018 that decided the SEC East. Get the win and Kentucky follows with home games with South Carolina and Mississippi State. On the other hand, Kentucky was fairly awful against Northern Illinois, so anything could happen next.

Missouri: 4-8

With upcoming games with Georgia and at Florida, it looks like Missouri will be 3-4 going into a game at South Carolina. Lose that one and it’s a long season ahead. A 6-6 finish remains possible, but again, Carolina looks like the must-win.

South Carolina: 5-7

While South Carolina State, Mizzou and Vandy are still sitting ahead on the schedule, it’s hard to find a 6th win for the Gamecocks. It’s not impossible, but at the moment, road games at Kentucky or Florida look like tall orders for USC. And then, of course, there’s Tennessee and Clemson waiting at the end.

Tennessee: 9-3

UT is off next week, and the road game at LSU suddenly looks like a big one. Win that and 10-2 is very much in play. Lose that, and the Vols might go 8-4. At the moment, at LSU and a home game with Kentucky probably determine the overall arc of UT’s season. Though Vols fans are optimistic about their chances against Alabama and Georgia.

Vanderbilt: 3-9

No reason to expect any SEC wins from Vandy. At Mizzou looks like the best shot, but that’s after playing at Bama, Ole Miss, and at Georgia. Another 0-8 SEC mark looks like the most likely outcome by far.