Oregon vs. Utah: Prediction and preview

Oregon vs. Utah is shaping up to be one of the biggest Pac-12 games of the season so far.

Both teams have 1 conference loss, so this game effectively functions as semifinal matchup for the Pac-12 Championship Game. The winner of this game will control their own destiny with regards to getting to the conference title game.

Oregon vs. Utah preview

Both the Ducks and Utes boast a high-scoring offense. Oregon is putting up 42.2 points per game while Utah is at 39.3 points per contest. They both rank in the top 4 of the Pac-12 and in the top 12 nationally.

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Oregon is led by quarterback Bo Nix, who is having his best career season out west. Nix already has 24 touchdown passes this season, which is easily his career-high. He has also set career-highs in passing yards, yards per attempt, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

Utah also has an experienced quarterback at the helm: Cameron Rising. He’s in his second season as Utah’s starting quarterback and has been one of the better passers in the conference.

Defensively, Utah seems to have the edge in this matchup. The Utes rank fifth in the Pac-12 in yards per play allowed while Oregon is all the way down at No. 9. However, the picture changes if you remove Oregon’s Week 1 game against Georgia that saw the Bulldogs average 9.3 yards per play. With that game excluded, the ducks are allowing 5.74 yards per play — equalling Utah’s mark.

Utah does have the better defensive front. It has created 62 tackles for loss already this season, which ranks third in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, Oregon has racked up only 42 tackles for loss — 11th in the conference, only ahead of dead-last Arizona. If the Ducks aren’t able to pressure Rising — Utah has allowed only 8 sacks all season — it could be an issue for them.

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However, Oregon’s offensive line has also been stellar this year. The Ducks have allowed just 2 sacks all season, which is by far the best mark in the Pac-12. This is shaping up to be a relatively even battle in the trenches.

Oregon vs. Utah prediction

Utah is a 2-point favorite in this game (as of Thursday evening) despite being on the road. The Utes had Oregon’s number last season, winning a pair of matchups by a combined 59 points. One of those wins came in the Pac-12 title game.

There’s one clear separator in this matchup: Oregon’s secondary. The Ducks are allowing a passer efficiency rating of 167.79, which ranks dead last in the Pac-12. Rising is good enough to take advantage of that unit and produce a game-winning drive in the final moments of the game if necessary.

Score prediction: Utah 31, Oregon 28