4 non-DJ Burns keys for NC State in Final Four matchup vs. Purdue
Purdue and NC State appear destined for a showdown for the ages in the Final Four.
Despite entering the NCAA Tournament as a 1-seed and an 11-seed, the two sides have rolled into Phoenix on the back of some dominant big-man play. Zach Edey is the 7-foot-4 towering monster for the Boilermakers poised for his second National Player of the Year honor while DJ Burns has flipped a switch this postseason for the Wolfpack.
Ahead of the Final Four, a large focus has been placed on the showdown between Burns and Edey in the post. That matchup will undoubtedly play a key role in the final outcome, but it is not the only key in a game of this magnitude.
It’s okay to be sucked into the hype, but here are 4 keys to keep in mind for Saturday’s semifinal between the Wolfpack and Boilermakers:
The turnover situation
Entering the Elite 8 and a showdown vs. Tennessee, Matt Painter made a big point about the turnover battle. It’s easy to see why with Painter claiming the Boilermakers were 26-0 when committing 13 or fewer turnovers in a game. (That number improved to 27-0 as Purdue had 10 turnovers in a win over the Vols.)
What’s particularly notable is that the turnover differential in that scenario has not bothered Painter’s squad. Purdue actually has more turnovers than the opposition in all 4 NCAA Tournament games, and the Vols utilized points off turnovers to keep things close in the Elite 8.
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In Saturday’s game, it looks like an area that plays into the strengths of Purdue. NC State’s opponents average just 12.1 turnovers per game, and the Wolfpack have not seen an opponent hit that number yet in the NCAA Tournament.
In 4 games against Duke, Marquette, Oakland and Texas Tech, the opposition is averaging just 8.75 turnovers per game against the Wolfpack. Texas Tech committed 10 turnovers, the only team to reach double digits in turnovers against NC State, but the Wolfpack also committed 10 turnovers in that game.
Can NC State force the Boilermakers into some early turnovers? If Purdue is able to get into a mistake-free groove, it’s likely the Boilermakers will run away with things in Phoenix and wind up winning by more than the 9.5-point spread listed at ESPN Bet.
“The other DJ”
With DJ Burns dominating the spotlight this postseason, it’s somehow possible NC State’s best scorer has become a bit overlooked. That would be DJ Horne, a 6-foot-1 guard who averaged over 16 points per game this season.
Despite leading the Wolfpack in scoring this season, he has just one game in the NCAA Tournament as the team’s leading scorer. That would be the 67-58 win over Marquette when Horne had an efficient 19 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
He did not lead the team in scoring against Duke (that distinction belongs to Burns), but Horne was similarly efficient against Duke (7-for-16 with 20 points), and that’s the kind of performance NC State will likely need against Purdue.
Even if Burns can find his offensive rhythm against Edey, it’s unlikely he alone can slow down Purdue’s big man on the other end of the court. In order to keep things close, Horne will need to find some success against Purdue’s backcourt and compliment what Burns can put together.
Don’t overlook Lance Jones
Who is Lance Jones? He’s a 37-game starter for Purdue this season averaging 11.8 points per game in the process, but that doesn’t tell the full story.
Jones is the missing piece Purdue didn’t have in the disastrous opening-round loss to Fairleigh Dickinson last season.
That sounds dramatic, especially considering he’s averaging just 8.5 points in the postseason. But don’t overlook his importance to the Boilermakers.
Offensively, Jones is shooting 41% from the floor, but he does shoot 35.5% from 3-point range. His performance in Purdue’s 4 losses this season also speaks volumes.
Against Northwestern, Jones was just 2-for-11 from the floor and 1-for-7 from deep. In a loss to Nebraska, he was 4-for-12 and 2-for-8 from deep, and he was 3-for-11 against Ohio State.
In the NCAA Tournament, Jones has some struggles shooting from the field, but he’s hitting from 3-point range at a 37% clip. He’s a true role player in every sense of the word, and DraftKings has his point total for Saturday set at 11.5 points. But, when Jones plays his role well, it’s a great formula for the Boilermakers.
3-point shooting
How do you build an offense around Zach Edey? For Matt Painter, it involved stockpiling a team of 3-point shooters with the Boilermakers shooting 40.6% from deep as a team this season.
The 3-point shooting forces teams into one of two options defensively: Double Edey in the post and leave a shooter open, or let Edey operate in a one-on-one situation down low. This year, it’s been a lose-lose scenario for Purdue’s opponents.
Entering Saturday, NC State is holding opponents to a 33% shooting performance from deep, and the Wolfpack are coming off arguably their best defensive game of the season. Duke finished the Elite 8 loss 5-for-20 from deep in one of the worst shooting games of the season for the Blue Devils.
That performance by Duke is not a one-off for NC State’s defense. Throughout the NCAA Tournament, teams facing the Wolfpack have shot 28-for-117 from 3-point range, a number that works out to 23.9%.
Ahead of Saturday’s game, DraftKings has the 3-point total for Purdue’s Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones listed at 1.5 each. In order to get the win, at least one of those Boilermakers will likely need a big game from deep alongside whatever Edey is able to put together.
Which team will advance into Monday’s national championship game against the winner of Alabama vs. UConn? Saturday’s game from State Farm Stadium is set for 6:09 p.m. ET on TBS.
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And coming in at number 5 is a prayer that Edey doesn’t have enough NIL money to get his ‘A’ team refs assigned to the game. The dude played like a linebacker last weekend and he was treated like a 16-year old date with her Marine Corps older brother in the back seat on prom night.
Funny but true. Edey gets the benefit of a lot of calls and has all season…maybe because he’s “been overlooked all his life.”