Friedlander: Pitt's NCAA bid was stolen by an ACC rival. But it's not NC State

NC State became the feel-good story of conference tournament week by winning 5 games in as many days to cut down the nets as ACC champions for the first time in 37 years.

But not everyone was feeling warm and fuzzy over the Wolfpack’s historic success. State’s unexpected opportunity became Pitt’s misfortune.

OK, so it may not have been the Wolfpack who stole the Panthers’ bid directly. But they certainly had a hand in the process.

According to NCAA selection committee chairman Charles McClelland, coach Kevin Keatts’ team was 1 of 5 across the country that would not have made it into the bracket without winning their league’s automatic bid.

Since Pitt was judged to be among the first 4 out by the committee, it would have gotten in had chalk held in the A-10, American, Mountain West and Pac-12.

Or the ACC.

At least State earned its opportunity with its performances on the court.

If Jeff Capel, his Panthers and their fans are angry at anyone for stealing their bid, it should be another conference rival.

Virginia.

The Cavaliers were one of the last 4 teams to sneak into the NCAA field. They’ll play in the First 4 as a 10 seed in the Midwest Region against Colorado State in Dayton on Tuesday. This, despite being ranked significantly lower than Pitt in virtually every important statistical metric.

Not only did the Panthers finish at No. 40, 14 spots better than UVa in the NET rankings that have been billed as the be-all end-all of tournament analytics, they won the only head-to-head matchup between the teams.

In Charlottesville.

Where nobody had beaten the Cavaliers in 2 years.

It just goes to prove that the numbers aren’t as important as the amateur bracket guessers would have you believe. The human element is still alive and well. And it’s slanted to the benefit of blue blood programs such as the over-seeded Michigan State and high-profile coaches like Tony Bennett.

The good news on Selection Sunday is that the ACC is back on the top line of the bracket after getting shut out of the top 3 seeds a year ago. And after enduring a season full of (laughable) gloom-and-doom projections of only 2 or 3 bids, the conference ended up with 5.

Joining NC State and UVa are North Carolina, the top seed in the West, Duke (No. 4 in the South) and Clemson (No. 6 in the West).

Here’s a closer look at what to expect once the music starts and this year’s dance gets underway:

Most favorable draw: Duke

While talent, depth and experience are all contributing factors to a team’s success in the tournament, the most important consideration in determining how far it advances often comes down to its matchups.

Unlike last year, when the Blue Devils ran into a physical Tennessee team that bludgeoned them into a 2nd-round exit, this year’s bracket is filled with opponents that play to their strengths, rather than their glaring weakness inside.

Assuming Jon Scheyer’s team gets past its opening-round game against 13th-seeded Vermont, it would face No. 5 Wisconsin or No. 12 James Madison – neither of which has a dominating low post presence. Top-seeded Houston is also a perimeter-oriented team. The looming Sweet 16 battle between Duke’s backcourt trio of Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor and Cougars’ stars Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer could turn out to be one of the most entertaining of the early rounds.

The Blue Devils’ path isn’t easy. But it is manageable if they can get their mojo back after a disappointing end to the regular season and an early ACC Tournament exit.

Most difficult draw: North Carolina

Let’s start at the end. By far the most anticipated matchup of the entire bracket is a potential Elite 8 showdown between the Tar Heels and No. 2 seed Arizona.

It wouldn’t just be a showdown to decide which team goes to the Final Four. It would also be a compelling individual drama between high-scoring guards RJ Davis of UNC and Caleb Love or Arizona – former teammates whose contentious relationship helped contribute to the Tar Heels’ chemistry issues last season.

Before the respective conference Players of the Year can go head-to-head, UNC will have to survive a draw that will have them play either First 4 participants Wagner or Howard in the opening round before taking on Mississippi State or Michigan State in the 2nd round.

Their most difficult test on the way to the Elite 8 would come in the Sweet 16, where it could take on 4th-seeded Alabama or No. 5 St. Mary’s, the West Coast Conference champion.

At least Hubert Davis’ team will have the advantage of starting the tournament in Charlotte, a place that has been kind to it in the past, before traveling cross-country to the opposite end of the ACC’s new geographic footprint in California.

How far can they go?

The biggest variable among the ACC’s 5 NCAA teams is NC State.

Can the Wolfpack parlay the emotion and the momentum of their surprise ACC Tournament championship into a deep NCAA run the way UConn did in 2011 when it used a similar success in the Big East Tournament as a springboard to a national title? Or did the 5-games-in-5-day grind take too much out of the Wolfpack?

Even if they’re rested and ready to go, they got no favors in their draw as the No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region.

They face a difficult opening test against 6th-seeded Texas Tech, although the Red Raiders could potentially be without leading rebounder Darrion Williams – who is hobbled with an ankle injury. Should they win and advance, they’d face an even tougher assignment against high-scoring Kentucky.

Clemson has a chance to flex a little muscle for the ACC in a head-to-head matchup against the Mountain West Conference’s tournament champion, New Mexico. It would then face a potential 2nd-round matchup against 3rd-seeded Baylor.

How far the Tigers advance will depend on star big man PJ Hall’s ability to stay out of foul trouble and their ability to make shots from the perimeter.

Like NC State, they’ll be fortunate to get out of the first weekend. Duke’s ceiling is one round further in the Sweet 16 while UNC is a legitimate Final Four threat, as long as it can regroup quickly after Saturday’s ACC Tournament final disappointment.

As for Virginia, there’s a silver lining to its relegation to the First 4. It sets the Cavaliers up to avoid getting sent home in the Round of 64 for the 3rd time in 4 years.