College basketball futures market update: Who are the best-value bets to make the 2024 Final Four?

The road to the Final Four has begun!

With the brackets officially set, it’s time to take a look at the futures market to see what teams have the best odds to reach the Final Four in Phoenix.

A couple of important notes before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s T-Rank tourney odds to betting odds from a variety of the best online sportsbooks. 2) After calculating the expected value of a wager on all 68 teams to reach the Final Four, these are the 5 highest-expected value bets on the board as of Monday afternoon:

Best-value Final Four bets

Colorado to win the South Region (+10000 on ESPN Bet)

Implied odds: 0.99%
BartTorvik odds: 1.4%
Expected value: $41.10 on a $100 wager

This is a long-shot, but this prop is miss-priced according to BartTorvik. The Buffaloes do have some serious talent, including a projected lottery pick in freshman wing Cody Williams. Colorado is also riding a hot streak — it won 8 in a row before losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Saturday night. There has only been one 10-seed to make the Final Four since 2008, but there’s value on picking Colorado to be the second.

Houston to win the South Region (+145 on FanDuel)

Implied odds: 40.82%
BartTorvik odds: 56.4%
Expected value: $38.18 on a $100 wager

Houston did not have a particularly inspiring close to the year, as the Cougars were blown out in the Big 12 Championship Game in Kansas City on Saturday. Houston was clearly one of the better teams in the country all season, however, and BartTorvik has consistently shown value on the Cougars in the futures market over the past few weeks.

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Iowa State to win the East Region (+450 on Bet365)

Implied odds: 18.8%
BartTorvik odds: 25.1%
Expected value: $38.05 on a $100 wager

Speaking of Iowa State, the Cyclones made a late charge for a No. 1 seed but ultimately ended up on the No. 2 line. Iowa State is currently the No. 5 team in the country according to KenPom’s rankings and has only lost 3 games since the beginning of February. Iowa State is easily the best value pick of any team in the East region — Auburn is the only other team currently showing positive expected value to make it out of the East.

Arizona to win the West Region (+300 on Bet365)

Implied odds: 25%
BartTorvik odds: 33.7%
Expected value: $34.80 on a $100 wager

Arizona did not have a strong close the year. The Wildcats lost 2 of their final 3 games to USC and Oregon, souring what had been a very impressive final season in Pac-12 play. However, maybe it’s better this way — Arizona cruised to a Pac-12 title last year before losing to No. 15-seeded Princeton in the first round. Caleb Love is the ultimate wildcard and he has been to the Final Four before with North Carolina back in 2022.

Saint Mary’s to win the West Region (+1100 on Bet365)

Implied odds: 8.33%
BartTorvik odds: 10.6%
Expected value: $27.20 on a $100 wager

Saint Mary’s is a difficult team to evaluate. The West Coast Conference has often been a 2-bid league with the Gaels and Gonzaga running the show, but it’s never clear how strong those teams actually are after playing lackluster schedules in conference play. Saint Mary’s enters the tournament ranked No. 20 nationally in KenPom and has lost just once since Christmas.

Bonus bet: Purdue to win the Midwest Region (+165 on FanDuel)

Implied odds: 37.74%
BartTorvik odds: 41.5%
Expected value: $9.97

Purdue didn’t quite crack the top-5 in terms of expected value, but I wanted to include the Boilermakers as the best value from the Midwest region. Purdue is one of the only true favorites to have plus-EV to make the Final Four — perhaps due to some public skepticism after they became the second-ever team to lose to a No. 16 seed last year. Alas, this Purdue team does have some pretty significant differences from the squad that ended the year in infamy in 2023.