Friedlander: Breaking down my bracket for the 2024 NCAA Tournament

Finally, it’s time for the only bracketology that matters.

It’s the kind that takes place after the bids are issued and before the games begin. The one in which we get to become the experts and pick all the upsets, the Final Four teams and the eventual national champion.

Or at least try to.

Predicting the NCAA Tournament is never an easy task. That’s why those who fill out their bracket using the dominant mascot theory usually end up doing as well – or better – than those of us who think we know what we’re doing.

But that’s a big part of why March Madness has become the most popular sports event in the country this side of the Super Bowl.

This year’s tournament promises to be even more wide open than ever. Of the 32 conferences that receive automatic bids into the field of 68, 11 saw their regular-season champion go down to defeat in their league’s tournament.

That includes the top seeds in the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Mountain West.

So put away your chalk. At least 1 if not all of the top seeds – UConn, Purdue, Houston and North Carolina – will be gone by the time the tournament reaches its conclusion in Glendale, Arizona. But be careful in picking too many 5-12 upsets. You don’t want your bracket to get busted on the first day.

Good luck!

Now, let’s get to the brackets.

East

Winner – Auburn

Team that can blow up my bracket – Drake

Call this Region the “2023 Final Four reunion bracket.” Three of the 4 teams that played for last year’s national championship in Houston are all back together and all of them – UConn, Florida Atlantic and San Diego State – are in the top half of the draw.

That sets up a potential championship game rematch between the Huskies and Aztecs in the Sweet 16.
As the top overall seed and defending national champion, UConn is the popular choice to win it all again. And Dan Hurley’s team is certainly capable of doing it. But even with its experience and talent, winning back-to-back titles is a difficult ask because of all the variables that are involved.

In UConn’s case, the most dangerous variable is a hot, under-seeded opponent in Auburn.

Bruce Pearl’s 4th-seeded SEC Tournament champs are physical and relentless on defense, and they have enough offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone. The Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season in rolling to the SEC Tournament title, making them doubly dangerous.

The bottom half of the bracket features 2 other conference tournament champions, No. 2 Iowa State and No. 3 Illinois.

The Cyclones didn’t just beat Houston in the Big 12 final on Saturday. They blew the doors off the favored Cougars, in the process debunking the perception that they’re just the product of a flawed NET ranking system. As legit as Iowa State is, it has the potential to run into trouble in the 2nd round against Drake, a talented mid-major with even more motivation, as an in-state rival, to pull off the upset.

Auburn came within a soft last-second foul call of playing for the national championship in 2019. Five years later, Pearl and his Tigers will get a shot at redemption:

West

Winner – North Carolina

Team that can blow up my bracket – St. Mary’s

Don’t be distracted by North Carolina’s loss to NC State in the ACC Tournament final on Saturday. The Tar Heels didn’t play that badly. They just ran into an in-state rival play, playing with confidence and motivation to earn an NCAA bid it wouldn’t have gotten with the tournament title. Hubert Davis’ team may also have suffered from a touch of overconfidence after beating the Wolfpack twice during the regular season.

UNC is still the most talented and balanced team in this bracket. The Heels were rewarded with a 1 seed and an opening weekend placement in Charlotte, where it is 12-1 all-time in NCAA Tournament play. But there are plenty of potential speed bumps on the road to Arizona – both the No. 2 seed in the region and the Final Four venue.

Even with some big names on their side of the bracket, including Alabama and Michigan State, the Tar Heels’ most dangerous potential opponent could be the one with the least imposing profile: St. Mary’s.

The Gaels have 26 wins and finished the season ranked No. 16 in the NET. But more important, they play a lockdown defensive style – ranking 3rd nationally at less than 60 points per game allowed – that could frustrate the Tar Heels and leave them open for an upset.

No. 2 Arizona also faces a possible mid-major stumbling block in the 2nd round in 7th-seeded Dayton, a team that ranks among the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Third-seeded Baylor also poses a threat but is a much better matchup for the Wildcats because of their more up-tempo pace of play.

Maybe it’s wishful thinking. But an Elite 8 showdown between former teammates (and antagonists) RJ Davis and Caleb Love just seems inevitable:

South

Winner – Houston

Team that can blow up my bracket – NC State

The Cougars are clearly the class of this bracket and have by far the path of least resistance among the 4 top seeds.

Kelvin Sampson’s team made a smooth transition from the American Athletic Conference to the more competitive Big 12 by winning the regular-season title. Although they were beaten soundly by Iowa State in the conference tournament, it still has all the elements necessary to make a national championship run.

Houston has experienced, dynamic guards in the tandem of Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer, and a defense that ranks No. 2 nationally, according to KenPom. If the Cougars can stay healthy, something that didn’t happen a year ago when they were also a 1 seed, this is their region to win.

The bottom half of the bracket is full of wild cards. And the Wildcats. You know, the Kentucky team that hasn’t advanced past the opening week since before the pandemic. It’s a history that might be tough to overcome since defense has been optional for John Calipari’s team lately. Even with an offense as high-powered as the Wildcats’ is, it’s tough to win tournament games when you have to score 90 points or more to do it.

Second-seeded Marquette, when at full strength, poses the most serious threat to Houston. But it’s a coin flip as to how healthy or rusty star Tyler Kolek will be after missing the last 3 games of the regular season and the Big East Tournament.

The biggest unknown, however, is NC State. The Wolfpack came out of nowhere to win 5 games in 5 days to win the ACC Tournament championship and steal an NCAA bid. It’s a run that could have emptied their tank and lead to an early exit. Or it could do the opposite, as it did for eventual national champion UConn in 2011.

Kevin Keatts’ team has the talent to be a tough out. And wouldn’t it be fun to see history repeat itself with a Cinderella NC State team taking on a heavily favored Houston in a rematch of their iconic 1983 national final?

Sadly, it’s not in the cards:

Midwest

Winner – Tennessee

Team that can blow up my bracket – Purdue

Purdue is the kid voted Most Likely to Succeed at his high school, but ends up living with his parents for decades.

No one has underachieved more over the past 3 tournaments than the Boilermakers. They lost to 13th-seeded North Texas in the 1st round in 2021, to 15 seed St. Peter’s in the Sweet 16 in ‘22 and worst of all, to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson on Day 1 a year ago.

And those failures have come despite the presence of Zach Edey, the biggest and best player in the country, in their lineup. This is Edey’s last chance at redemption. And it’s off to an ominous start after Purdue’s semifinal exit in the Big Ten Tournament.

With Kansas depleted by injury, tournament-tested potential opponents TCU and Gonzaga post the greatest threat to the Boilermakers. But given their history, they’re vulnerable against everyone in this bracket.

Purdue’s inevitable stumble, whenever it comes, opens the door for Tennessee and its breakout star Dalton Knecht. The Volunteers are prone to some mental hiccups and can be their own worst enemy. And Rick Barnes is prone to March blunders. But they’re No. 3 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency at 91.0 while also ranking in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.0.

Their stiffest challenge could come early in a 2nd-round matchup against Barnes’ former team, Texas, although a Sweet 16 rematch with SEC rival South Carolina – a team they split with during the regular season – could also be tricky.

With no other volunteers able to step forward, Tennessee will gladly cut down the nets and make its 1st ever Final Four appearance:

Final Four

Semifinals – North Carolina over Auburn, Houston over Tennessee

National championship – Houston over North Carolina

Maybe I’m a little jaded from having watched the Tar Heels carve through the ACC all season.

But they’re a tournament-tested team that prepped for this moment by playing a difficult nonconference schedule that included matchups against fellow top seed UConn, Tennessee and Kentucky. They have an elite inside-outside combination in big man Armando Bacot and sharpshooting ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis, both of whom have played in a Final Four. And coach Hubert Davis has finally figured out how to use his bench effectively.

Most of all, UNC is a terrible matchup for Auburn.

The Tigers’ biggest weakness, rebounding, is the Tar Heels’ greatest strength. UNC leads the ACC and ranks 12th nationally with a plus-7.4 rebounding margin. Auburn is just 6th in the SEC at plus-3.8. Further its backcourt has had difficulty operating against longer, taller defenders. Although the Tar Heels start a small duo of Davis and freshman Elliot Cadeau, they have an ace in the hole in athletic 6-3 reserve Seth Trimble – their best on-ball defender.

Auburn is going to have to continue to shoot lights out like it did in the SEC Tournament. Because if it doesn’t, it will be lights out against UNC.

Houston, meanwhile, has the defensive mindset to limit Knecht’s effectiveness. They also have the offensive talent, especially in the backcourt, to put points on the board against the Vols’ equally elite defense.

One thing going in Tennessee’s favor is that the Cougars don’t have a dominant inside presence, an element that has given it trouble during the season. Both teams are tested and talented. That should make for an interesting chess match between coaches Barnes and Kelvin Sampson.

The X-factor in this semifinal, however, is the Vols’ inconsistency. They’re prone to wild swings, as evidenced by their no-show against Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. That will eventually be their downfall against a much more disciplined and consistent Houston team.

That leads us to the final showdown.

Houston vs. UNC.

It’s the ultimate contrast of styles with the Cougars built around their defense and the Tar Heels capable of putting up big offensive numbers against anyone.

What’s that old saying? Offense puts fans in the stands, but defense wins championships?

Maybe it doesn’t hold true all the time. But it will this time.

Finally, after so many close calls in the past, it’s the Cougars’ turn to cut down the nets.