Duke vs. Houston preview: Player prop bet picks

Duke will battled No. 1-seeded Houston for a spot in the Elite Eight on Friday night.

The Blue Devils won each of their opening-round games over Vermont and James Madison in dominant fashion. However, Houston is one of the best teams remaining in the field and figures to provide a different kind of test for Duke.

Here’s a preview of this highly-anticipated Sweet 16 contest:

4 Duke vs. 1 Houston betting info

Spread: Houston -4.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 133.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

Duke has beaten the number in 11 of its last 15 games overall, including in both of its NCAA Tournament games so far this season. Houston went 17-17-2 against the spread this season and has been the favorite in every game it has played. Houston is just 2-8 ATS when favored by 7 points or fewer this season.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Duke: 122.6 (5th)
Houston: 119.6 (14th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Duke: 95.6 (20th)
Houston: 88.0 (2nd)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Duke: 66.6 possessions per game (245th)
Houston: 63.7 possessions per game (346th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Jared McCain over 13.5 points (-115 at ESPN Bet)

I took Jared McCain’s under in the James Madison game, and that was a big mistake. McCain lit up the Dukes from beyond the arc and ended up with 30 points in another blowout win. McCain is one of the best shooters in the entire country and has only been getting better as his freshman year has progressed. Since Jan. 20, McCain is averaging 16 points per game on shooting splits of 48%/41%/88%. Houston has an elite defense, but I think McCain can get to 14 points against the Cougars.

Kyle Filipowski over 2.5 assists (-180 at ESPN Bet)

Kyle Filipowski gets a lot of credit for his scoring and rebounding, but he’s also an excellent passer. He has the second-highest assist rate of any Duke player behind only point guard Tyrese Proctor. Filipowski averaged 2.9 assists per game this season and also led Duke in usage rate, so he gets plenty of touches in the half court. Both Duke and Houston prefer to play at a relatively slow pace, so I’m expecting plenty of half-court possessions for Duke’s offense — which is good news for Filipowski’s assist total.

J’Wan Roberts over 6.5 rebounds (-105 at ESPN Bet)

There’s no other way to put this — Houston got embarrassed on the glass against Texas A&M last weekend. The Aggies posted an offensive rebounding rate north of 52% in that game, and it nearly cost the Cougars their season. Now, it’s worth noting that Texas A&M led the country in offensive rebounding rate this season. But I still expect the glass to be a major point of emphasis for Houston in the Sweet 16 given its performance last time out. Duke is also a good rebounding team, but nowhere near as elite as A&M. When factoring in minutes, Roberts is Houston’s best rebounder with a defensive rebounding rate of 18.4% and an offensive rebounding rate of 10.8%. I think he’ll get to 7 boards in this matchup.

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