NC State vs. Marquette preview: Player prop bet picks

NC State will try to pull of another upset on Friday night as it takes on Marquette in the Sweet 16.

The Wolfpack will be playing for the right to go to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1986. To get there, they’ll have to face a Marquette team that is coming off of an impressive win over Colorado in the Round of 32. The Golden Eagles were one of the best teams in the Big East all season long and earned a No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a preview of this matchup:

11 NC State vs. 2 Marquette betting info

Spread: Marquette -7.5 (via ESPN Bet)
Total: 150.5 points (via ESPN Bet)

NC State went 18-19-1 against the spread this season, but the Wolfpack have been on a hot streak against the number. They’ve covered in 5 of their last 6 games, including 5 outright wins during that stretch. In NC State’s last 3 games where it did not cover, it missed the number by a combined 2 points. Marquette went 18-12-1 ATS during the regular season and has covered in 12 of its last 17 games overall.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

NC State: 115 (41st)
Marquette: 118.9 (19th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

NC State: 100.7 (75th)
Marquette: 95.5 (19th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

NC State: 68.1 possessions per game (147th)
Marquette: 69.1 (93rd)

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Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

DJ Horne under 16.5 points (-125 at ESPN Bet)

DJ Horne has struggled a bit in the NCAA Tournament and now he’s going up against a top-20 defense in Marquette. Horne is just 9-of-24 from the field and 4-of-14 from 3-point range over the course of NC State’s 2 tournament wins. The Wolfpack were able to survive his poor performances in those games — although they needed overtime to beat Oakland — but Marquette could send the Wolfpack home for good if it can limit his scoring output efficiency. I expect Horne will be near the top of Marquette’s scouting report and it will have a plan to keep him from having a big game offensively.

Kam Jones under 2.5 made 3-pointers (-110 at ESPN Bet)

Kam Jones is an elite shooter. He’s made over 41.4% long-range tries this season and has made multiple shots from downtown in 8 straight games. However, it’s actually pretty rare for Jones to get to a trio of made treys in a game — he did so just 13 times in 35 games this season. NC State has defended the 3-point line exceptionally well during its 7-game postseason winning streak. Wolfpack opponents are just 57-of-181 (31.5%) from 3-point range over that span, which includes a 10-of-18 performance by Louisville in NC State’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament. That percentage for the last 6 games drops to 28.8%. I like NC State keep Jones off the 3-point line in this spot.

DJ Burns under 20.5 points + rebounds (-120 at ESPN Bet)

DJ Burns has been the star of NC State’s NCAA Tournament run so far. However, Burns’ regular season numbers are well below this total — he averaged 11.6 points and 3.3 rebounds per game in ACC play. Despite his size, Burns is not a good rebounder for his position — he has the same defensive rebounding rate (12.8%) as 6-foot-4 reserve Jayden Taylor. I think Marquette has enough size and athleticism to slow Burns down both as a scorer and as a rebounder in this game.