Ah, you can smell it.

The bracket is here, and it’s glorious. Well, it’s not glorious if you’re outside of the field of 68. For those who did make the Big Dance, it’s more than glorious. It’s the best tournament in the world.

But of course, not everyone got such a fortunate draw. Plenty of SEC teams have to be feeling like they got a raw deal coming out of an 8-bid league. That could make or break a deep March run.

So how far does each SEC team go? You came to the right place:

Alabama — Round of 32

Do I trust Alabama to defend well enough to win 1 game in the NCAA Tournament? Yes. Do I trust the Tide to do that en route to the Sweet 16? I don’t. If you can believe it, I have Alabama getting upset by 12-seed Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. Former Vanderbilt coach and March Madness legend Bryce Drew will slow the pace against Nate Oats’ squad, which has struggled with consistency all year. As tempting as it is to pick Mark Sears to lead Alabama to a deep run, those defensive woes will resurface at the worst time.

Auburn — Sweet 16

I was ready to have Auburn in the Final Four. Then I saw that Sweet 16 matchup against top-seed UConn and thought otherwise. It’s a brutal draw for a team in the top 5 in NET and KenPom that won the conference tournament in an 8-bid league. Bruce Pearl’s squad has to go all the way up to Washington for the first 2 rounds. That is, assuming the Tigers can fend off Ivy League champ Yale, which rallied late against Brown to get into the field. Go ask last year’s Arizona squad about taking the Ivy League champ lightly. But Auburn getting a “nothing to lose” matchup against UConn will have the feel of a Final Four bout. It’s just hard to trust the Tigers and their 2 Quad 1 wins to prepare them for a team as battle-tested as UConn.

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Florida — Round of 32

Late-season injuries to key players are such a difficult thing to battle back from. I thought Micah Handlogten going down early with that gruesome fractured leg in the SEC Championship changed how Florida played. As impressive of a job as Todd Golden has done in Year 2, getting a balanced, veteran-laden Marquette squad in the Round of 32 is a tough draw. Shaka Smart’s squad can contain that high-powered Florida offense. For my money, advancing in the NCAA Tournament would still be a sign that Golden, who got an extension during his SEC Tournament runner-up finish, has things turned in the right direction.

Kentucky — Elite 8

The last time that Kentucky advanced to Sweet 16 was 2019. My question is simple — if this team can’t move past John Calipari’s recent March woes, who can? I do believe there’s something special about this squad, despite the early SEC Tournament exit against an A&M team that shot the lights out. Getting to the Elite 8 in my bracket would include beating Oakland, a team of destiny NC State squad off the ACC Tournament run and the experienced, Shaka Smart-led Marquette. Am I paying too much attention to the name on the uniform? Perhaps, but I think the offensive firepower combined with the pre-SEC Tournament potential shown on the defensive side down the stretch, will finally get the Cats back to a Region Championship berth … where my national champion Houston will be a brutal sight on short rest.

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Mississippi State — Round of 32

This is an unpopular opinion to have Chris Jans’ squad winning a game because it’s Tom Izzo in March. As they shared on the CBS broadcast, he’s won 65% of the time in his NCAA Tournament matchups as a lower seed. But I’ll take the SEC’s MSU, who bullied Tennessee with its size and length. I don’t think the Spartans are tough enough to continue to get quality looks for 40 minutes. Mississippi State takes it a step further by possessing a halftime lead against UNC in the Round of 32 … but too much RJ Davis proves costly in the second half and Mississippi State comes up just short of reaching the second weekend.

South Carolina — Round of 64

I applaud the job Lamont Paris did. The SEC Coach of the Year earned an extension after he took a South Carolina team that was picked to finish last to a remarkable 26-7 mark. But this time of year, it’s about matchups. The Gamecocks drew an Oregon squad that has no problem slowing things down and playing a tough, low-scoring game. That formula propelled Dana Altman’s squad through the final Pac-12 Tournament, which it needed just to make the field. An Oregon team that’s playing loose and finally healthy could be all she wrote for South Carolina’s stunning 2023-24 campaign.

Tennessee — Sweet 16

Here’s the thing: I believe that the Vols could make their first Final Four in program history. Dalton Knecht could very well be the missing piece of a deep run, and if the Vols are ever going to make it happen, now feels like the type of group that could do it. But I also don’t want to feel like a total moron by ignoring Rick Barnes’ March struggles. It won’t be Barnes’ former team Texas that sends the Vols packing. It’ll be another squad that lost its opening game of the conference tournament, Creighton. The Bluejays are comfortable playing at that slower pace and they can absolutely put Tennessee in one of those all-too-familiar scoring droughts. Of course, the hope is that Knecht can pull the Vols out of it. Another frustrating Tennessee exit awaits.

Texas A&M — Round of 32

Keisei Tominaga and Wade Taylor IV will be one of the more fun individual back-and-forths of the first round. I’ll take Buzz Williams to pull the right strings to get past that Round of 64 matchup against Nebraska, but ultimately come up short against my future national champion, Houston. That’s such a daunting task on a quick turnaround to face a team that defends in the half-court the way that Kelvin Sampson’s squad does. But on the bright side, Williams does pick up his first NCAA Tournament victory in College Station before running into the Cougars’ buzzsaw.