An NCAA Tournament bracket without upsets is like bowling with bumpers.

Sure, you might bowl a strike, but did you really? Sure, you might’ve gotten the most games correct in the first round, but if you had nothing but chalk, did you really?

To love the madness is to lean into the madness. Upsets are what make this opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament so special. Predicting that a 13-seed will take down a 4-seed and then watching it hit is what keeps us coming back, even after our brackets our inevitably shredded during that second weekend.

In honor of that, here are my 5 biggest upsets for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Odds are via DraftKings:

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5. No. 12 Grand Canyon (+5.5) beats No. 5 St. Mary’s

Is it really an upset if it’s a 12-5? I say yes. I like the thought of March Madness hero Bryce Drew leading Grand Canyon to its first NCAA Tournament victory. Well-traveled WAC Player of the Year Tyon Grant-Foster has the makings of a March darling, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he showed up big against a St. Mary’s squad that plays extremely slow and could start forcing shots if it’s a close game late.

Speaking of WCC teams getting upset …

4. No. 12 McNeese (+6.5) beats No. 5 Gonzaga

Two words. Will. Wade. Call him “American Gangster” or just call him a darn-good coach with a darn-good team. McNeese turned things around drastically in Year 1 of the Wade era having only lost 1 game since the calendar turned to 2024. His squad will keep that rolling against a Gonzaga team that finally doesn’t have someone like Drew Timme to get an automatic bucket when things get tight, which is how I expect this game to play out against a McNeese squad that forces 16 turnovers per game. Shahada Wells drops 30 and Wade dances on.

3. No. 12 UAB (+7) beats No. 5 San Diego State

I say this as someone who saw San Diego State play in person twice last year in the NCAA Tournament. I have great respect for Brian Dutcher’s program, which is fresh off a national runner-up finish. But this is a totally different team. We get a reminder of that when Andy Kennedy’s squad lights up the scoreboard en route to the program’s first Round of 64 victory since 2015. UAB’s ability to get to the charity stripe frustrates the Aztecs, and a repeat run to the Final Four is halted before it ever really starts.

2. No. 11 Duquesne (+9) beats No. 6 BYU

No team in the field attempts or makes more 3-pointers per game than BYU. That’s the good news. The bad news is that there’s a lot of variability in that come March, especially when facing one of the better defensive teams in the field. We saw that script play out for BYU in the Big 12 Tournament against Texas Tech when they missed 12 straight from long range, which was part of a 1-for-19 stretch. I’ll bank on first-time NCAA Tournament jitters in a new gym preventing BYU from getting going from deep.

1. No. 13 Vermont (+12) beats No. 4 Duke

Come on. It’s so tempting. The Catamounts have won 19 of 20 games entering the tournament, and they always feel like a team that’s on the brink of Cinderella status. Of course, the first and only Round of 64 win against Syracuse back in 2005 fueled that feeling. Still, it’s an experienced squad that made the NCAA Tournament each of the last 3 seasons. Duke has 4 losses to teams who aren’t in the NCAA Tournament, which isn’t including that one-and-done ACC Tournament exit at the hands of NC State. Can Vermont take a page out of the 2014 Mercer/2012 Lehigh playbook? A whole lot of folks are hoping so.