The second year of the Jim McElwain era is underway in Gainesville, and Gators fans are accustomed to Year 2 magic.

Fans of all teams expect to see their team get better in a coach’s second season, but McElwain’s second-year situation is complicated after exceeding expectations in his first season (10-4, SEC East champions). Now he faces question marks at quarterback (and other positions) for the fall.

COMPARISONS

Until he defines a legacy of his own at Florida, McElwain will be regularly compared to Urban Meyer (the last coach to win a championship at UF), Will Muschamp (McElwain’s failed predecessor) and Nick Saban (McElwain’s mentor at Alabama).

In that sense, the pressure is on as all three coaches’ teams improved significantly in Year 2:

  • Urban Meyer, Florida
    • 2005: 9-3 – won Outback Bowl
    • 2006: 13-1 – won SEC East, SEC Championship and BCS Championship
  • Will Muschamp, Florida
    • 2011: 7-6 – won TaxSlayer Bowl
    • 2012: 11-2 – received Sugar Bowl at-large bid
  • Nick Saban, Alabama
    • 2007: 7-6 – won Independence Bowl
    • 2008: 12-2 – won SEC West, received Sugar Bowl at-large bid

McElwain has experienced Year 2 before as a head coach – just not in the SEC. At Colorado State, the Rams improved from 4-8 in 2012 to 8-6 in 2013, including a victory in the New Mexico Bowl. If the Gators were to improve by four wins in 2016 (from 10 to 14), it would mean an SEC Championship and at least one win in the College Football Playoff.

ACTIVE SEC COACHES IN FIRST TWO YEARS

Unfortunately for McElwain, Meyer and Saban set the bar high for Year 2 success. The majority of current SEC coaches experienced second-year bumps not nearly as drastic. Les Miles did not experience a Year 2 “bump,” but 22 wins in two seasons is the best two-year start of all active coaches.

Including Saban, there are 10 current SEC coaches with at least two years of tenure at their current school. Comparing all 10 in the first and second years, there’s a margin of plus-14 — or an improvement of 1.4 wins per coach.

SEC coaches, on average, win an extra game and a half in their second seasons. It will be tough for McElwain to do that given his first year.

Just two out of the 10 coaches went backward — Kevin Sumlin, who benefitted from Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy season in ’12, and Gus Malzahn, who has gone the wrong direction since the BCS Championship Game appearance in ’13.

  • Les Miles, LSU
    • 2005: 11-2 – won SEC West, Peach Bowl
    • 2006: 11-2 – won Sugar Bowl
  • Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
    • 2009: 5-7
    • 2010: 9-4 – won Gator Bowl
  • Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss
    • 2012: 7-6 – won BBVA Compass Bowl
    • 2013: 8-5 – won Music City Bowl
  • Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M
    • 2012: 11-2 – won Cotton Bowl
    • 2013: 9-4 – won Chick Fil A Bowl
  • Butch Jones, Tennessee
    • 2013: 5-7
    • 2014: 7-6 – won TaxSlayer Bowl
  • Mark Stoops, Kentucky
    • 2013: 2-10
    • 2014: 5-7
  • Bret Bielema, Arkansas
    • 2013: 3-9
    • 2014: 7-6 – won Texas Bowl
  • Gus Malzahn, Auburn
    • 2013: 12-2 – won SEC West, SEC Championship and appeared in BCS Championship Game
    • 2014: 8-5 – lost Outback Bowl
  • Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
    • 2014: 3-9
    • 2015: 4-8

Troublesome for McElwain is that two of the three coaches who won double-digit games in their first season (Sumlin and Malzahn) regressed in the second season.

THE WILDCARD

One crucial element of McElwain’s 2016 Florida squad that varies greatly from the teams that found Year 2 success is the quarterback situation. UF is looking at starting either a walk-on (Luke Del Rio or Austin Appleby) or a true freshman (Feleipe Franks or Kyle Trask), much different from returning starters like Chris Leak (Florida 2006) and John Parker Wilson (Alabama 2008) leading the way.

Even Muschamp’s 2012 Gators benefitted from Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett both having played the previous season as freshmen.

Del Rio was on campus last season learning the McElwain offense, but is still a relatively unknown commodity having only thrown 18 career in-game passes. Appleby (119-of-207, 1,260 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs) played college football last season, but at Purdue. As early enrollees, Franks and Trask should both be more advanced than the average first-year quarterback, but there’s no way to completely dodge the growing pains that come with playing true freshmen in the SEC.

McElwain has a good track record with his quarterbacks, but the offensive line may be an even bigger question entering the 2016 season. The offensive line could determine the season, as the defense should remain good. But the odds look to be against McElwain finding Year 2 success similar to Meyer and Saban. The Gators’ 2016 road schedule is especially difficult, with a Week 4 trip to Neyland Stadium to take on a Tennessee team determined to finally snap an 11-game losing streak against its division rival, as well as playing Arkansas and Florida State in hostile territory in November.

On the other hand, the odds looked to be against Florida winning the SEC East in McElwain’s first season.

He’s in relatively rare territory as a 10-win coach in his first SEC season, so it will be an interesting case study to see where his program goes from here.