Kentucky Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Kentucky. We’ll stay with the SEC East all week. Last week, we predicted every game for every SEC West team.

* * * * * * *

A missed opportunity, it was.

Kentucky was sitting there in the Ole Miss red zone down 3 points in the final 3 minutes. In a battle of unbeatens, the Cats had an opportunity to close out Lane Kiffin’s squad and perhaps earn its first top-5 ranking in the AP Poll since 1964. Sure, it was only late-September, but Kentucky had a chance to take an all-important step on the heels of a 10-win season.

And then, of course, a very Kentucky-like thing happened. Will Levis fumbled twice in the final 3 minutes to spoil a potential road victory. A 4-0 start was followed by a 3-6 finish. Forget a top-5 ranking. No ranking was on the table at season’s end.

Not only did Kentucky fail to put together its second consecutive winning season in SEC play — that still hasn’t happened since 1976-77 — but it also failed to win a bowl game. Until last year’s Music City Bowl loss to Iowa, Kentucky had won every nonconference game and every bowl game since the Benny Snell ejection against Northwestern at the end of the 2017 season.

But now, it’s up to Mark Stoops to turn the page. He made major moves this offseason with his top assistant and with replacing his top 2 skill players. So what’ll that amount to?

Let’s peak into Kentucky’s 2023 Crystal Ball:

Devin Leary + Liam Coen = A promising offense

The 2 most important personnel decisions for Stoops were obvious. How would the offense get back to the 2021 level? And who would he get to replace Levis?

Well, Stoops answered both questions about as well as any Kentucky fan could’ve hoped. He brought Coen back to replace Rich Scangarello. That came with a significant raise after Coen spent 1 season as Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams. In 2021, Coen overhauled Kentucky’s offense with pro-style concepts and led the Cats to their best offense since 2007. Levis became a household name in college and in the NFL Draft world.

Coen’s return to Lexington made it that much more enticing for a potential transfer quarterback. Notre Dame fans might argue after landing transfer Sam Hartman, but there might not have been a better quarterback on the market than Leary. In 2021, Leary broke Philip Rivers’ single-season passing touchdown mark at NC State, but after entering 2022 as the ACC Preseason Player of the Year, his season was cut short due to a torn pec.

Leary came to Kentucky as the obvious QB1. He’ll be 24 years old in September. Leary has 1 year of eligibility left, and there’s a hope that he with perhaps the best returning group of receivers the program has ever had, he can solidify a UK offense that was in shambles for much of 2022. He isn’t built like a linebacker like Levis was, but he can be a better distributor of the football, especially in the event that UK’s offensive line doesn’t take a major step forward.

Speaking of that offensive line …

What happened to the Big Blue Wall? …

It was bad last year. It probably didn’t help that Levis was never afraid to take on hits, and he’d sometimes hold the ball too long. Whatever the case, The Big Blue Wall was The Big Blue Gate. No Power 5 team allowed more sacks than Kentucky, and as a result, Levis was banged up with various injuries throughout the 2022 season. A group that was once as rock solid as there was in the SEC went all the way down to No. 13 in its PFF grade.

It wasn’t just the pass protection. It felt like the ground game was predicated on Chris Rodriguez breaking 3 tackles at the line of scrimmage to at least push the pile forward. Fortunately, Rodriguez was great at that. Unfortunately, he’s gone to the NFL. In stepped the smaller, but durable 1,000-yard Vanderbilt running back Ray Davis, who would certainly appreciate an improved group up front.

The question isn’t whether this 2023 group will be better; it’s how much better can it be. Adding the likes of Marques Cox (Northern Illinois) and Tanner Bowles (Alabama) from the transfer portal should be a major help for Eli Cox and that new-look group. Marques Cox has All-SEC upside after he was a prolific 3-year starter at Northern Illinois.

Perhaps scheme will also help. Coen dealt with a porous offensive line last year with the Rams. He had to learn how to call plays with that being a major Achilles’ heel. Could this veteran group be in a better spot to handle that? It has to.

Another year, another elite Stoops defense?

While UK has gone through some offensive ups and downs during this 5-year stretch, the defense has been a constant. Here are the Cats’ SEC ranks in scoring defenses:

2018 — No. 2
2019 — No. 4
2020 — No. 5
2021 — No. 4
2022 — No. 3

The only 2 other SEC teams that ranked in the top 5 in each of those years were Alabama and Georgia. That’s the Stoops effect, and I’d also argue that defensive coordinator Brad White is one of the more underrated assistants in America.

So with that, what should we make of the fact that UK ranks just No. 86 in percentage of returning defensive production and has 5 starters back? Well, that Kentucky will still probably be one of the conference’s top defenses.

JJ Weaver returns to lead that group as the alpha dog for Stoops and White. Zion Childress and Jordan Lovett flashed a lot of promise as underclassmen in 2022, and they should lead an otherwise young secondary. Nobody flashed more promise as an underclassman than 348-pound defensive tackle Deone Walker, who earned true freshman All-American honors. He’ll be the anchor of that group alongside Keeshawn Silver.

To recap, Kentucky returns key starters at every level of that defense, Stoops and White are still running the show and the sky is still blue. In other words, pencil Kentucky in for another top-5 defense in the SEC and don’t think twice about it.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Ball State (W)

We didn’t really get the best vibes from the UK offense early last season. This season? That’s a different story. Coen’s return to the UK sidelines is a successful one in a lopsided Week 1 win.

Week 2: vs. Eastern Kentucky (W)

Second-year receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key continue their phenomenal start by both surpassing the century mark in a game that’s over by halftime.

Week 3: vs. Akron (W)

Never sleep on a Year 2 Joe Moorhead offense, but UK will overwhelm the Zips early with a heavy dose of Davis. The good vibes of UK’s offense continue in a 35-14 win for the program’s third consecutive 3-0 start.

Week 4: at Vanderbilt (W)

A revenge game in Nashville. It’s a revenge game for Kentucky after last year’s stunning home loss to the Dores, and perhaps there’s a little revenge for Vandy after Davis left for Lexington. What does that produce? A thriller. For the first time, Kentucky faces a team that can test its young secondary. It results in a halftime lead for Vandy. But unlike last year, UK finds offensive answers in the second half. Specifically, the passing game gets rolling. Veteran UK receiver Tayvion Robinson sparks a pair of scoring drives in the third quarter, and after a shaky start, Kentucky’s defense adjusts to AJ Swann and Will Sheppard. A strip sack of Swann puts Vandy’s late comeback on ice and UK gets its revenge.

Week 5: vs. Florida (W)

Kentucky has the upper hand on Florida now. I know. That seems wild considering many of us are old enough to remember when the Florida winning streak was 31 years old. After winning 3 of the past 5, Kentucky adds another to the win column behind a huge day from Key and Brown. Key, just as he did last year on that long pass from Levis, is on the receiving end of another long touchdown. Against a disciplined defense on the road, Graham Mertz reverts to the player who couldn’t string together scoring drives at Utah. Kentucky makes it 3 in a row against Florida for the first time since the Bear Bryant era.

Week 6: at Georgia (L)

Two things will be fascinating to watch in this matchup, which could tell the story: How much does Georgia’s defensive line regress and how much does Kentucky’s offensive line progress? Kentucky’s revamped offense the past 2 years scored just 19 combined points against the Dawgs, 6 of which came on a garbage time touchdown pass in the final seconds of the 2021 game. Can Leary turn that around? Maybe, but the odds of doing so in a winning effort in Athens aren’t great. A pair of interceptions prove costly in a 3-score Georgia victory.

Week 7: vs. Mizzou (W)

Stoops won 7 of the past 8 matchups against Mizzou, which had 3 different head coaches during that stretch. At the same time, 5 of the past 6 games were decided by 10 points or less. Once again, it’s a game that’s decided late. Both teams struggle to string together scoring drives and it turns into a low-scoring affair. Just like last year, the first team to 20 might be sitting pretty. So what’s the difference? Brown takes a screen pass 75 yards to the house to break a 10-10 tie and give Kentucky a touchdown lead that it holds onto late.

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: vs. Tennessee (L)

If there’s a coach in the SEC who has totally baffled the Stoops-White defense, it’s Josh Heupel. A 45-point showing in Lexington was followed by Tennessee’s 44-point knockout last year in Knoxville. The chunk plays tipped the scales in the Vols’ favor both times. This time, it’s not necessarily an offensive explosion from the Vols, but chunk plays again prove to be the difference. Squirrel White gets free for 2 long touchdowns and Leary struggles to keep pace. Tennessee keeps Kentucky at an uphill climb all day and uses the 3-headed rushing attack late to keep the Cats off the field for a potential game-tying drive. Heupel improves to 3-0 against Stoops.

Week 10: at Mississippi State (L)

In what turns into a defining time of Zach Arnett’s rookie season, he rallies the Bulldogs for their first victory in nearly a month. For the 2nd time in 3 seasons, Leary can’t produce scoring drives in Starkville. (His NC State team lost there in 2021.) Whether it’s dropped passes or penalties, Kentucky’s offense sputters and Mississippi State’s defense delivers its best home performance of the year. Decamerion Richardson picks off 2 Leary passes and sets up a pair of Mississippi State touchdowns. For the 8th consecutive year, the home team wins, and Kentucky leaves Starkville without a win there since 2008.

Week 11: vs. Alabama (L)

Kentucky fans might be thinking that the Tide will be on the ropes after a predicted loss to LSU, but history suggests it’ll be anything but that. In regular-season games following a loss since 2008, Alabama is 10-0 with 7 of those wins coming by at least 3 scores. Alabama rectifies the secondary issues that it had the previous week against LSU, and Leary struggles to keep drives alive in obvious passing situations. There’ll be no field rush in Alabama’s first trip to Lexington since 2013.

Week 12: at South Carolina (L)

I get the sense that there’s no love lost between Stoops and Shane Beamer. Will sunglasses be discussed in this one? Maybe. But unlike last year’s rock fight, this one becomes a fun Saturday night SEC Network game. Spencer Rattler and Leary, both vying for All-SEC love, throw 3 touchdown passes apiece in a game that feels like the last team with the ball will win. Kentucky lines up for a 45-yard field goal to tie it at 38 all, but … Beamer Ball strikes. A blocked kick in the final minute is returned for a touchdown and sends the Williams-Brice crowd into a frenzy as South Carolina hangs on.

Week 13: at Louisville (W)

What’s the best way for Kentucky to get the bad taste of a losing streak out of its mouth? A meeting with Louisville. For the 5th consecutive year, Kentucky punches its in-state rival in the mouth. Coen empties the bag of tricks with end-arounds to Brown, and Leary dials up a long touchdown to Key off a flea flicker. Jeff Brohm’s offense has some success early, but after a rough stretch for the UK secondary, Childress steps in front of 2 passes and prevents this from staying close in the second half. A 3-touchdown win in Louisville caps an up-and-down regular season.

2023 projection: 7-5 (3-5), 4th in SEC East

Online sports betting is coming in the state of Kentucky this football season. With many operators going live in the state, be sure to check out the Bet365 Kentucky promo code for more information on getting started with legal, regulated sports betting in the bluegrass state

#BBN

The record says this is the same team as last year. Sometimes, though, a team can improve while failing to see it in the win column. Why? The schedule gets harder.

That’s the biggest thing preventing me from saying that UK will finish 2nd in the East. The latter half of conference play is an absolute gauntlet. It’s either 11-win teams at home or 8-win teams on the road. UK could likely be an underdog in all 4 of those games, not to mention the trip to Georgia in the first part of SEC play. To get to 8 or 9 wins, Kentucky will need to beat multiple teams that it shouldn’t, at least according to the experts.

As great as Stoops has been, getting those quality road wins has been tough to come by. Beating Florida in The Swamp last year was great, but then the Gators finished 6-7. Winning at Tennessee in 2020 was great, but then the Vols finished 3-7. You’d have to go back to the 2018 Florida game to find a Kentucky road victory that came against a team ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup and at the end of the season.

This could serve as a frustrating reminder of how small that margin for error is. Even if the Cats have a prolific offense, it could still have those challenging moments. And even the best Stoops-White defenses still have the occasional letdown game.

Kentucky has a chance to look like one of the more improved teams, and it has the personnel pieces in place to do that. But the schedule could challenge that depth in ways that Stoops’ squad can’t overcome.

At least not to the standard that’s been set the past 5 years.