Mizzou Crystal Ball: Predicting every game in 2023

Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Missouri. We’ll stay with the SEC East all week. Last week, we predicted every game for every SEC West team.

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Through 3 years at Mizzou, you can say that Eli Drinkwitz did several things.

He led the Tigers to the postseason each season. He owned the South Carolina rivalry. He signed 18 blue-chip recruits (4-stars or better in 247sports composite).

Through 3 years at Mizzou, you can also say that Drinkwitz failed to do several things.

He hasn’t produced a winning season. He has been owned in the Tennessee rivalry. He has yet to win a bowl game or develop a consistent passing attack.

But heading into Year 4, Drinkwitz has job security in the form of a 2022 contract extension and a buyout that’s estimated to be in the $20 million range. On one hand, Drinkwitz hasn’t taken Mizzou to the upper half of the SEC East. On the other hand, Drinkwitz hasn’t had that disastrous season.

This year, however, feels like as good of a time as any for Drinkwitz to push past mediocrity. His team ranks No. 2 in America in Bill Connelly’s updated percentage of returning production, he locked down his promising defensive coordinator Blake Baker, he has arguably the top returning tackle in the SEC in Javon Foster and he has an offensive play-caller for the first time as a head coach.

So what’ll that yield in 2023? Let’s dig into it:

Drinkwitz made the wise decision to defer play-calling duties

Drinkwitz couldn’t have been more transparent about his decision to hire an offensive play-caller. He admitted at SEC Media Days that he needed to give up that part of the game and focus elsewhere. Why? It’s not just that his offense finished No. 86 in scoring in its first year without that bell-cow back. Look at these FBS passing game rankings:

2020 — No. 32 in passing, No. 91 in TD passes, No. 61 in QB rating
2021 — No. 66 in passing, No. 68 in TD passes, No. 80 in QB rating
2022 — No. 91 in passing, No. 109 in TD passes, No. 83 in QB rating

That’s not the kind of regression you want to see from your offensive-minded head coach.

As a result, Drinkwitz recognized the need to bring in an offensive play-caller. He hired Fresno State offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. Last season, Moore produced the nation’s No. 27 passing offense, and his unit ranked in the top 1/3 in FBS with 6.0 yards/play. That paved the way for Fresno State’s Mountain West championship.

But let’s be honest. Moore was hired to rejuvenate the passing offense. Whoever starts for Mizzou will have to do something that we really haven’t seen since Drew Lock was in Columbia. That is, make defenses respect the downfield attack. That falls on Moore. It also falls on an intriguing quarterback battle.

Speaking of that …

The QB battle will continue into the season

Drinkwitz said that incumbent starter Brady Cook and former blue-chip recruit Sam Horn will play in the first 2 games. That’s interesting on a couple of levels.

First, Cook was praised for his progression down the stretch, especially once he had more opportunities to use his legs. In those final 3 regular-season games, Cook racked up 315 yards rushing and was responsible for 8 total touchdowns (7 passing, 1 rushing). If that had continued in the bowl game, perhaps there would be a different tone surrounding the quarterback room, and this job would belong to Cook. Instead, he had an inefficient 4.7 yards per passing attempt in what was a lackluster offensive showing against Wake Forest.

Horn, on the other hand, is the guy Mizzou fans have been buzzing about since he committed to Drinkwitz. The 2-sport redshirt freshman had to put on some weight and get more reps in practice because of his baseball-filled springs.

Horn is considered the more talented passer, but obviously, someone without a college completion is a greater unknown than a Year 4 guy like Cook. Even if Cook holds onto his job, we could see a short leash unlike what we’ve seen under Drinkwitz.

Can Cook show enough early improvement with a new play-caller? Or is Horn’s emergence inevitable?

Those first 2 games could set the stage for a defining time in Drinkwitz’s tenure.

Luther Burden III will be _________ in 2023

“Electric.”

Much was made about the arrival of the No. 1 receiver in the 2022 class and his subsequent usage in Mizzou’s offense. Not many sub-6 foot true freshman receivers are playing north of 50 snaps per game from the jump. Burden did. The problem, however, was that the high volume of snaps didn’t always yield a high volume of touches. Burden had 63 scrimmage touches for 463 yards, though he did get into the end zone 8 times.

Since 2012, here’s the list of SEC true freshman wide receivers who had at least 8 touchdowns from scrimmage:

Luther Burden, 2022
George Pickens, 2019
Amari Cooper, 2012

That’s pretty good company. Burden can take another step in his new role as Mizzou’s primary slot receiver. He’ll do so with last year’s leading receiver, Dominic Lovett, off to Georgia after he played 85% of his offensive snaps from the slot.

What will that mean? In theory, more touches for Burden. Last year he occasionally struggled to get separation on the outside, where he lined up on 85% of his offensive snaps. Lovett ranked No. 7 in the SEC with 4.7 catches per game. One would think that as long as the offensive scheme is an upgrade, Burden should get a cut of Lovett’s touches.

The biggest thing with Burden is how he’s able to get the ball and operate in space. If that means him lining up as the wild cat quarterback or a running back like he did 13 times last year, so be it. Ideally, he’ll get more mismatches and, instead of drawing a team’s top corner on the outside, he’ll have more opportunities for chunk plays.

The best version of Burden would be as good of a sight to see as any for Mizzou in 2023.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. South Dakota (W)

All aboard the Horn bandwagon! Cook starts, but Horn’s momentum grows by night’s end in a blowout season-opener.

Week 2: vs. Middle Tennessee (W)

Don’t sleep on a Middle Tennessee team that went into Coral Gables and blew out Miami last year. But the problem for MTSU to pull off another Power 5 road upset is its new-look offense that returns just 15% of its 2022 production. Blake Baker’s defense forces 3 turnovers in a 28-14 Mizzou victory.

Week 3: vs. Kansas State (L)

Even without Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State should still have a say in the Big 12 title race. Will Howard was excellent down the stretch, and behind a loaded offensive line, Kansas State continues to run the ball at an elite level with Treshaun Ward. Cook, after a promising start, gets a reality check in the second half. A late Cody Schrader touchdown run makes things interesting, but Kansas State’s ground game does the heavy lifting in a 27-14 victory.

Week 4: vs. Memphis in St. Louis (W)

This is where Ty’Ron Hopper and that Mizzou defense really flex some muscle. After a tough showing a week earlier, that group bounces back in a big way. Hopper has a strip sack that Ennis Rakestraw Jr. takes the other way for a huge momentum-shifting play early. Touchdown passes to Burden and Mookie Cooper give Mizzou a nice offensive cushion to pick up a win in St. Louis.

Week 5: at Vanderbilt (W)

Four of the past 5 games in this matchup were decided by single digits. This one makes it 5 out of 6. An up-and-down Mizzou passing attack struggles on the road. Facing a 14-7 halftime deficit, Drinkwitz turns to Horn. That move proves to be a smart one. Horn shows poise on the road while Mizzou’s defense bounces back after allowing 2 chunk plays to AJ Swann in the first half. Vandy can’t put a touchdown drive together late and Mizzou holds on for a 21-17 victory.

Week 6: vs. LSU (L)

Unlike the 2020 game that was moved to Columbia because of Hurricane Delta, the visiting Tigers don’t let it come down to a goal-line play in the final seconds. Mizzou struggles with the mobility of Jayden Daniels, and Logan Diggs has his first real breakout game after arriving from Notre Dame in the post-spring transfer portal window. A week after it was on its heels for much of the day against Ole Miss, LSU’s front 7 overpowers Mizzou’s offensive line and lives in the backfield. An ugly, low-scoring game gives LSU a bounce-back victory on the road.

Week 7: at Kentucky (L)

Mark Stoops has won 7 of the past 8 matchups against Mizzou, which had 3 different head coaches during that stretch. At the same time, 5 of the past 6 games were decided by 10 points or less. Once again, it’s a game decided late. Both teams struggle to string together scoring drives and it turns into a low-scoring affair. Just like last year, the first team to 20 might be sitting pretty. So what’s the difference? UK speedster Barion Brown takes a screen pass 75 yards to the house to break a 10-10 tie and give Kentucky a touchdown lead that it holds onto late.

Week 8: vs. South Carolina (W)

Death, taxes and Mizzou finding a way to beat South Carolina. The last time that didn’t happen was 2018 when the college football gods dropped a monsoon into Williams-Brice Stadium. But just like each of the past 4 years, South Carolina is a shell of itself offensively against Mizzou. Spencer Rattler gets picked off by Kris Abrams-Draine, who returns it to the house. The Gamecocks’ ground game can’t muster much of anything against Baker’s experienced defense. The Horn-led Mizzou offense opens up a bit with some play-action shots to Burden, and once again, the Tigers find a way to bring South Carolina back to earth.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: at Georgia (L)

After last year’s scare in Columbia, no, I don’t think Kirby Smart’s squad will get off to a slow start even after the Florida win in Week 9. More likely is that his defense comes out with its hair on fire and forces 3 turnovers in the first half. Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson pick off passes to set up short fields. Against his former team, Lovett gets into the end zone to put the exclamation point on a revenge game of sorts (if you can call it that) for the Dawgs.

Week 11: vs. Tennessee (L)

A well-rested Joe Milton comes out firing against a risk-taking Mizzou secondary. That proves costly for the home team. Mizzou bites on a couple of hitch-and-go routes and Squirrel White gets loose twice in the first half. That puts Horn in some obvious passing situations, which allows that experienced Tennessee secondary to play aggressively. Horn is picked off 3 times in his second consecutive rough showing while the Vols avoid a trap game ahead of Georgia.

Week 12: vs. Florida (W)

A pair of 5-win teams battling for bowl eligibility deliver a uniquely entertaining but low-scoring affair. Florida DC Austin Armstrong and Baker pull out all the stops on a frigid day that only produces 3 touchdowns. With Florida clinging to a 10-7 lead in the 4th quarter, Billy Napier opts not to settle for the field position game. A 3rd-and-long pass by Florida QB Graham Mertz is tipped at the line of scrimmage and picked off by Abrams-Draine. That sets up a Schrader touchdown and ultimately gives Mizzou a postseason-clinching victory.

Week 13: at Arkansas (L)

I’ll call my shot and say that Arkansas DL Trajan Jeffcoat has 2 sacks against his former team. I’ll call another shot and say that Arkansas treats this as a Senior Day of sorts for KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders, both whom could return in 2024, but barring injury, will likely be off to the NFL at season’s end. Much like when Treylon Burks got an ideal sendoff 2 years ago against Mizzou, the same plays out for Jefferson and Sanders. The Battle Line Rivalry goes to the home team for the 4th consecutive year.

2023 projection: 6-6 (3-5), 5th in SEC East

#MIZ

Where have I seen this before? Oh, I don’t know. Basically every year of the Drinkwitz era?

More than any other team in the SEC, I looked at my Crystal Ball and felt that I was too low on the Tigers. A 6-6 mark with the best wins against South Carolina and Florida wouldn’t exactly show that Drinkwitz has taken the next step. It would show more of the same for a program that hasn’t beaten a ranked Power 5 team since 2014.

If Horn steps in looks the part with a new offensive play-caller, even if it’s just in flashes, it could change the outlook of the program. Getting Burden in spots where he can become a much-needed star at receiver would be huge, as would Baker’s defense looking like one of the conference’s best after it was vastly improved in 2022.

If Drinkwitz goes 6-6, no, I don’t think he’s out. That extension late last season changed that. But man, it would feel like such a missed opportunity if Mizzou didn’t take another step forward. That No. 2 spot in the East is seemingly up for grabs, and with all that production back, this is the time for Drinkwitz to show that he’s the guy who can keep the program in a nice spot ahead of the SEC’s 2024 expansion.

There’s never been a better time for Mizzou to rise above mediocrity.