Since 2012, Texas A&M has been remarkably consistent.
Not always great, mind you — but consistent nonetheless. In those 14 seasons, the Aggies have won exactly 8 or 9 games (including the postseason) 9 times. Twice they got to 11 and twice they bottomed out at 5-7, with the only other result being a 7-6 campaign that resulted in the end of the Jimbo Fisher era.
Even beyond the last decade and a half, Texas A&M has had spurts of high-level success. In 1998, the Aggies won 11 games and a Big 12 title. But to find consecutive years of double-digit win seasons, you have to go back to the early 1990s when A&M was in the Southwest Conference.
That drought is on the line this season. The Aggies won 11 in a row last year before sputtering down the stretch. They return quarterback Marcel Reed as well as some key playmakers on offense.
The road back to 10+ wins will be harder. Texas A&M’s schedule looks much tougher on paper than it was a season ago. The Aggies also have to replace 10 NFL Draft picks.
The good news? A&M has Mike Elko. The longtime defensive coordinator has been a revelation as a head coach this decade. He took over a Duke program that was 1-17 in ACC play in its 2 prior seasons and then won 8+ games twice before moving to College Station. Now in just 2 years, he has A&M reaching for heights it hadn’t seen in well over a decade.
The future looks bright, regardless. But if Texas A&M can win big again in 2026, it may be on a higher trajectory than anyone has realized to this point.
Texas A&M win total analysis
This piece is part of a series we’re running this offseason at Saturday Down South where we’ll look at regular-season win totals for all 16 SEC teams. We’ve previously analyzed Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, Texas, Tennessee and Mizzou. Texas A&M is up next.
Texas A&M win total
According to the latest college football odds on DraftKings, here’s Texas A&M’s win total for the 2026 regular season:
- Over 8.5 wins (+100)
- Under 8.5 wins (-120)
The betting markets are currently projecting Texas A&M to win 8-9 games, with the lower number being priced as a slightly more likely outcome. On the higher-end of Texas A&M’s range, DraftKings has 10+ wins priced at +240, which translates to a 29.41% implied probability.
That projected range is a downgrade from where the Aggies were a season ago. In 2025, the Aggies went 11-1 during the regular season before bowing out in the first round of the College Football Playoff. A&M is 12-4 in SEC play over the first 2 years of the Elko era.
Texas A&M football schedule
Here’s the schedule Texas A&M will face this fall:
- Sept. 5: vs. Missouri State
- Sept. 12: vs. Arizona State
- Sept. 19: vs. Kentucky
- Sept. 26: at LSU
- Oct. 3: vs. Arkansas
- Oct. 10: at Missouri
- Oct. 17: vs. The Citadel
- Oct. 24: at Alabama
- Oct. 31: OFF
- Nov. 7: at South Carolina
- Nov. 14: vs. Tennessee
- Nov. 21: at Oklahoma
- Nov. 27: vs. Texas
Texas A&M’s nonconference schedule looks very manageable on paper, with the headliner being a home game against Arizona State in Week 2. The Aggies will be massive favorites in other contests against Missouri State and The Citadel.
The Aggies’ SEC slate is a very different story. Texas A&M will face at least 5 teams with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations: LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas. Of that group, only the Vols and Longhorns will be making the trip to College Station. A&M also has potentially tricky road games against Mizzou and South Carolina on the docket.
My prediction — I think Texas A&M will go under its win total of 8.5 games in 2026. Here are 3 reasons why:
There are still questions about Marcel Reed
Marcel Reed had a divisive profile going into 2025, but he silenced at least some doubters with the season he had. He threw for 3,169 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while posting a career-best passer efficiency rating of 148.2. He also proved to be an excellent rusher, going for 493 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground.
Now for the bad news about Reed. He was virtually unplayable as a passer in Texas A&M’s final 2 games last season. He threw for 417 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 71 pass attempts in losses to Texas and Miami. That translates to 5.9 yards per attempt.
Even against softer competition, Reed’s peripherals don’t point to him being an above-average thrower of the ball. Per PFF, Reed was 7th among SEC quarterbacks in big-time throw rate and had the 3rd-worst turnover-worthy play rate in 2025. On intermediate throws, Reed had a league-worst 6 interceptions and was just 9th in yards per attempt.
Reed is not a bad quarterback and is among the most experienced starters in the league, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s enough of a ceiling-raiser to bring Texas A&M back to the CFP with a much tougher schedule.
Subscribe to the Saturday Football Newsletter — Get the latest news and updates on your team, your conference, and the college football nation straight to your inbox.
Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.
The 2026 schedule is not 2025’s schedule
Speaking of Texas A&M’s schedule, its SEC slate in 2026 is much tougher than the one it cruised through a year ago. In 2025, the Aggies played 4 games against teams that went on to fire their respective head coaches. They also caught South Carolina and Mississippi State in down years while avoiding the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma altogether. In fact, Texas A&M didn’t play a single team that made the CFP in 2025 (since Texas and Notre Dame just missed out).
In 2026, the Aggies will see several CFP hopefuls including an SEC front-runner in Texas to close out the regular season. LSU should also be much-improved in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin. Tuscaloosa is a daunting road trip, too. Given what I wrote about Reed above, I’m not sure Texas A&M will have the edge at quarterback in any SEC games except for Arkansas (and possibly Kentucky and Mizzou, though I’m less certain about that).
To put a finer point on it, Texas A&M will face 7 SEC teams that have at least a 15% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff in 2026, per the latest Kalshi odds: Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina and Mizzou.
Texas A&M’s running game could take a big step back
One reason why Texas A&M was so dominant last season was its running game. The Aggies finished 4th in the SEC in yards per carry with Rueben Owens and Le’Veon Moss leading the running back room. Owens, Moss and Reed all posted positive EPA-per-rush numbers last season. According to CFB-Graphs, Moss and Owens were 2nd and 7th in EPA-per-rush among SEC running backs, respectively.
Entering 2026, Owens is back in Texas A&M’s running back room. However, the Aggies lost 4 starters on their offensive line this offseason. Only starting center Mark Nabou Jr. is back for this fall.
Elko and his staff were aggressive in the portal, adding 4 potential OL starters: Tyree Adams, Coen Echols, Trovon Baugh and Wilkin Formby. Adams and Echols both played at LSU in 2025 and registered run blocking grades under 50.0, via Pro Football Focus. Baugh checked in a bit higher at 55.7. Formby was the best of the bunch at 61.8.
It’s possible Texas A&M’s coaching staff will be able to get more run-blocking production out of that group, but it should not be treated as a certainty. And if the Aggies’ running game takes a meaningful step back, it could spell trouble given previously stated concerns about Reed’s passing chops and a much tougher 2026 schedule.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
