The Miami Hurricanes snuck into the 2025 College Football Playoff amid much debate and controversy. Alabama and Miami were the controversial inclusions, while Notre Dame was on the other side of the coin.
But the Hurricanes quickly quieted the naysayers, making it all the way to the title game behind an aggressive defense and an offense that did just enough behind QB Carson Beck.
Now though, there are some new faces in South Florida. Can Mario Cristobal and company repeat last year’s magic?
Before we dive into the Hurricanes, we’ll take a quick look at the Playoff format for this season:
- Auto bids will be given to the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and ACC championship winners
- Notre Dame gets an auto bid if the Irish finish in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings
- The top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid
- The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships
And here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
- No. 12 — Boise State
- No. 11 — Michigan
- No. 10 — Alabama
- No. 9 — LSU
- No. 8 — Indiana
- No. 7 — Texas Tech
- No. 6 — Georgia
- No. 5 — Oregon
- No. 4 — Notre Dame
Now, let’s discuss the No. 3 seed in our projections… the Miami Hurricanes.
The Playoff Path
Losing QB Carson Beck will hurt, but the Hurricanes made an incredible portal addition in former Duke QB Darian Mensah. After a tumultuous portal process, Mensah is taking his talents to South Beach.
Getting Mensah is a huge benefit for the Miami offense this season. He has a chance to be even better than Beck, and he’ll certainly have plenty of talent around him.
WR Malachi Toney burst onto the scene as a true freshman last year, putting up a frankly ridiculous 109-catch, 1,211-yard, 10-touchdown season as a receiver and adding 113 yards and a score as a runner. ESPN already ranks Toney as the second-best receiver in America in 2026, behind only Jeremiah Smith.
That’s a great start to any receiving corps, but Mensah will also be throwing to his favorite target from last year, Cooper Barkate. All he did for Duke in 2025 was post 72 catches for 1,106 yards and 7 touchdowns. Barkate and Toney might be the best receiving tandem in the nation.
Oh, and before we forget… Mark Fletcher Jr. is also returning to anchor the backfield. As in, the guy who ran for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns despite missing a couple of games with injury. He was nearly impossible to tackle in the Playoff, racking up 507 of those yards in 4 CFP games.
Another reason for optimism around the Hurricanes this year? The schedule is very manageable. Miami’s 2 toughest games are at Clemson on Oct. 3 and at Notre Dame on Nov. 7. Clemson is a winnable game for this Miami group, but I am a bit worried about the trip to South Bend in November.
However, even if the Hurricanes were to lose both of those games, there’s still a Playoff path and a path to the ACC title. Anything less than that would be considered a massive disappointment.
The Possible Roadblock
There are 2 major areas of concern when it comes to the Hurricanes. Though we’ve already detailed how much production Miami has coming back, particularly on offense, those guys will be playing behind a rebuilding offensive line.
Right tackle Francis Mauigoa was the No. 10 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and Miami’s 2025 left tackle, Markel Bell, was taken in Round 3.
Freshman Jackson Cantwell was an elite 5-star prospect in this year’s recruiting class and might be expected to step right in and contribute at left tackle out of the gates. Even if he plays well, replacing Bell is no easy task. He’ll need some time to adjust to the college game.
The other area of concern is on defense, where the Hurricanes are going to need to find some new pass rushers to replace Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, who combined for 22 sacks last year and were both taken in Round 1 of the draft.
They did add Damon Wilson II through the transfer portal from Mizzou, which is a huge help. But he’s not going to provide 22 sacks by himself.
Outside of those 2 areas, this is a really solid roster with plenty of star power. But offensive line and pass rush are, of course, 2 vitally important aspects of football. We’ll see how the Hurricanes handle the transition.
Odds to Make the Playoff
The folks at Kalshi are high on the Hurricanes’ chances to make the Playoff. Currently, Miami sits fourth with a 72% chance to crack the 12-team CFP field.
Take a look at the full market below:
Check out our list of the best prediction markets available for this coming football season.
Next up in our projections is our fourth (and final) team from the SEC. Stay tuned!
Like our coverage? Make SDS a preferred source in your searches!
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
