5 dream, 5 disaster scenarios for the SEC in 2016
We are only about a month and a half away now from what’s shaping up to be a tremendous season in the SEC.
With Alabama coming off its fourth national championship in seven years, that’s eight title runs for the best conference in America in the past decade alone. The league has never been stronger or more relevant.
Based on the voting this month at SEC Media Days, the Crimson Tide are once again projected to come out of the West. Tennessee, which has trended upward each year under coach Butch Jones, looks like the team to beat out East. Florida, the defending division champ, begs to differ. We’ll see soon enough.
There are a few dream scenarios on the horizon for SEC fans in 2016, both in terms of team accomplishments and individual accolades. Monster matchups are there to be won. Historic records are set to be shattered.
But beware, Southern fried fanatics. A disaster sequence or two just might make it all come crashing down.
dream
1. Not one, but two teams in the CFP
Even with the Volunteers returning 17 starters, the two or three top squads in the SEC reside in the West.
It’s not unreasonable to think that Alabama and LSU will be undefeated when they face each other Nov. 5 in Baton Rouge. Each schedule is manageable after that seismic showdown, too — particularly the Tide’s.
Only one can go to Atlanta, but either is a prime College Football Playoff nominee with a single blemish.
And it doesn’t just have to be the Tigers and Crimson Tide. Ole Miss returns the league’s premier passer by far in Chad Kelly. Maybe he can lead the Rebels on a magical charge with a string of 300-yard games.
The key is a one-loss West team being forced to watch the title game from home. Let attrition do the rest.
2. Alabama slides enough to create interest
Coach Nick Saban and Co. have become the New York Yankees — love ’em or hate ’em, those are your options.
Perhaps it wouldn’t be such a bad thing for ‘Bama to lose a few games this season. Ole Miss makes it three in a row. LSU finally ends its half-decade curse. Even Texas A&M and Auburn have defeated Big Al recently.
Dynasties have proven to be great for sports. Nevertheless, a little fresh blood from time to time helps.
3. Henry’s records don’t last long
Derrick Henry owns all the significant single-season rushing marks in the SEC after a dominating 2015.
However, most football fans not wearing crimson believe Leonard Fournette to be a much more talented ball carrier. Sure to be leaving for the NFL after this season, he has one last chance at amateur immortality.
Henry, who ran for an SEC-record 2,219 yards last season, is viewed by many as just a cog in the Saban machine, but Fournette could be another Herschel or Bo.
Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Stylistically, Fournette is a beautiful running back to watch — equal parts power and speed, coupled with supreme vision. Henry, conversely, was labeled a one-cut battering ram galloping behind an elite O-line.
It’s not necessarily criticism of Henry. It’s simply otherworldly praise for Fournette. He has no ceiling.
4. Hogs continue to rise under Bielema
From 0-8 to 2-6 to 5-3, Arkansas coach Bret Bielema has improved his league record three consecutive seasons.
That being said, if the Razorbacks endure a significant setback in 2016 — they’re the lone team scheduled to play the East and West champs from a season ago — then the rest of the West suffers as a result.
Bielema can’t just be the new Steve Spurrier at the mic. He’s got the sizzle, but we’re hungry for steak.
5. Football stories only at Mizzou
Maybe no team wants to turn the page more than Missouri. On and off the field, 2015 was a total nightmare.
Gone is Gary Pinkel, who retired from the game due to health issues. Taking over is one of his disciples, Barry Odom. On the eve of Odom’s first Media Days, the AD that hired him, Mack Rhoades, left for Baylor.
Odom couldn’t hide the fact that he was caught off guard completely. Any sense of job security evaporated.
Luckily, Odom has an underrated defense — especially up front — that should help keep his team in games. The offense, which was awful last year, can’t possibly be as bad. Last year’s installment was hard to watch.
Hopefully there is no more drama in Columbia. A stirring upset or two may even help heal a wounded campus.
disaster
1. Vols fail to live up to the hype
It’s all there for Tennessee. The Volunteers just have to want it. There’s nothing stopping them anymore.
Florida might take a step back. Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina have first-year coaches. Kentucky and Vanderbilt don’t have the horses. All of UT’s divisional foes are in some stage of the rebuilding process.
The Vols need to do more than win the East — they need to threaten the West. If not, it’s all been a mirage.
2. Eason sits and watches Lambert
Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason is probably the most highly anticipated freshman in the SEC.
The Bulldogs must get some bite in the passing game, and Eason has more than enough pure arm talent to deliver it. He came all the way from Lake Stevens (Wash.) High School to compete in the country’s preeminent league.
The only one standing in his way is incumbent senior Greyson Lambert. He doesn’t generate much excitement.
That being said, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that rookie coach Kirby Smart — protégé of the defense-first Saban — rolls with the high-floor Lambert over the high-ceiling Eason. At least initially.
Nobody wants to see another version of Mark Richt’s dumbed-down passing game with Lambert. Unleash Eason.
3. Prescott proves to be irreplaceable
Picked by the media to be bottom feeders in the West, Mississippi State must go on without Dak Prescott.
Beyond a reasonable doubt the top QB in Bulldogs history — and arguably the No. 1 player Starkville has ever seen — Prescott was the Alpha and the Omega offensively. Both running and passing, he did everything.
Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
There are four QBs getting first-team reps. At least one better end up being serviceable.
4. No one breaks through in the East
Tennessee is the clear-cut choice to win the division. Florida and Georgia are the only perceived threats.
Assuming the experts are right, that means Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt are already relegated to a spoiler role. If that’s the case, then a big chunk of the East schedule will be pointless.
One of those four squads — two feels greedy — has to surprise and perhaps give the Big Three a fight to the finish.
The East hasn’t won the SEC title since Florida in 2008. It has earned a reputation for being inferior to the West, which is unquestionably the best division in all of college football. Despite Alabama’s reign, the other six teams can still beat anybody.
The Wildcats in particular snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on occasion in 2015. Time to grow up.
5. On the outside of the CFP looking in
An undefeated or one-loss SEC champion is a lead-pipe lock for the College Football Playoff. We know that.
A two-loss conference champ, however, may not be so lucky. Tennessee has a brutal early schedule. The West is a week-to-week death march — it’s not unreasonable to see nobody doing better than 6-2 in league play.
The SEC is superior to the Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC. But CFP invitees are afforded precious few mistakes.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
