I hate to burst bubbles.

I don’t like to be that guy. Nobody likes that guy. They walk into a room and suck the energy out of it with their negativity. Call them a wet blanket, a Debbie Downer or just a bad hang. They’re tough, and not in a good way.

But every once in a while in college football, we need some negativity to get people back to reality.

We’ve got the longest offseason of any sport, and naturally, it creates a whole lot of optimism. Some of it is warranted. If you win double-digit games and you rank No. 1 in America in percentage of returning production, yes, you should feel good.

Looking at you, Florida State.

For others, some of that optimism can be a bit misplaced. Maybe a household name starting quarterback returns but the rest of the roster has major turnover.

Looking at you, 2021 UNC.

What seems inevitable is that a handful of preseason Playoff contenders will soon have reality hit them between the eyes. They’ll realize that their Playoff dreams never even reached October.

These are the 7 Playoff contenders who could suffer that all-important second loss by the time September is over:

1. Texas

September schedule — vs. Rice, at Alabama, vs. Wyoming, at Baylor, vs. Kansas

This shouldn’t even take up a spot really. Since 2013, Texas has 14 nonconference losses in September. It’s amazing that “Texas is back” ever became a thing because nobody has made a better habit of dismantling preseason expectations quite like Texas. This year’s slate has the obvious hurdle of winning at Alabama, which hasn’t lost a nonconference game since Louisiana-Monroe in 2007. A trip to face what should be a revamped Baylor squad won’t be easy, and Kansas has multiple victories against Texas in the Playoff era. The Jayhawks also rank No. 2 in percentage of returning production with Jalon Daniels leading the way.

Multiple losses by the time the calendar moves to October wouldn’t exactly be ideal for Steve Sarkisian’s approval rating in Austin, especially after being picked to win the Big 12. If there’s ever a time for Texas to avoid its usual September stumble, now is it.

2. Utah

September schedule — vs. Florida (Aug. 31), at Baylor, vs. Weber State, vs. UCLA, at Oregon State

I hate this because I have a soft spot for Utah. I picked the Utes to reach the Playoff last year and they had 2 losses by early-October. They obviously still won the Pac-12 and had a really solid season. It’s partially why I declared them “America’s team” for 2023. But man, that schedule is an absolute gauntlet. They play 4 Power 5 opponents before October, including a potential revenge game against Florida.

But even if Utah redeems that 2022 opener loss against the Gators, it could easily find a way to hit 2 losses. A trip to Baylor against a Dave Aranda defense won’t be a picnic, neither is consecutive games against a UCLA team that beat Utah last year and Oregon State, which could start off near the top 15 with the underrated Jonathan Smith.

If Cam Rising leads Utah out of September with an unblemished record, America’s team will very much be in the Playoff conversation.

3. LSU

September schedule — vs. Florida State (in Orlando), vs. Grambling State, at Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss

This is an unpopular thing to say because LSU has legitimate Playoff hopes. There’s no denying that they have fewer questions to answer than Alabama, and if they won the West again in Year 2 of the Brian Kelly era, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

So then why are the buzz-worthy Tigers on this list? Well, FSU to start off the season in the Sunshine State is a true coin flip, even if Maason Smith looks like a game-wrecker coming off his torn ACL. The Tigers also travel to the state of Mississippi twice against experienced starting quarterbacks, both of whom had second-half leads in Death Valley that were ultimately squandered. In fact, all 4 of those games vs. Power 5 competition are against returning starting quarterbacks, 3 of whom have preseason all-conference honors.

LSU’s biggest defensive question is in the secondary. That could prove to be costly with the way that slate kicks off.

4. Florida State

September schedule — vs. LSU (in Orlando), vs. Southern Miss, at Boston College, at Clemson

If I’m gonna include LSU, I need to include Florida State. Both teams could start in the top 7, and the loser of that game will feel entirely different than what the past 8 months would suggest. Don’t forget that FSU also has a trip to Clemson to close September. The Noles haven’t won that matchup since Jameis Winston was in Tallahassee. Clemson’s home winning streak finally died against South Carolina in the 2022 regular-season finale, but it’s still a place where the Tigers have exactly 1 loss since 2016.

FSU is worthy of being “the ultimate good vibes team” this offseason. Mike Norvell got that extension, he made some major moves in the portal and it has that aforementioned No. 1 ranking in percentage of returning production. But nothing can kill the good vibes quite like losing to 2 other Playoff contenders before October.

5. Tennessee

September schedule — vs. Virginia (in Nashville), vs. Austin Peay, at Florida, vs. UTSA, vs. South Carolina

I know, I know. Here’s what I’m gonna do for you, Vols fans. I’m not even gonna suggest that UTSA is a sleeper game because I think the days of losing at home to a Group of 5 team ended when Josh Heupel showed up in Knoxville. And I won’t even suggest that Virginia will put up a fight in Nashville with what’ll be a very pro-Tennessee crowd. Let’s just stick with the basics here.

Tennessee has a game in a place where it hasn’t won in 20 years (Florida) and another against a team that beat it 63-38 to squash the Vols’ Playoff hopes in their best season in 19 years (South Carolina). Do I expect Tennessee to lose both games? No, and I say that as someone who has some skepticism about an experienced, but inconsistent defense. I also have some skepticism about Joe Milton 3.0. Winning in The Swamp against even bad Florida teams has been a struggle, and the same Spencer Rattler-Juice Wells connection who torched the Vols last year is back.

Nothing would bring the Vols back to earth worse than an 0-2 start to SEC play.

6. Notre Dame

September schedule — vs. Navy (Aug. 26), vs. Tennessee State, at NC State, vs. Central Michigan, vs. Ohio State, at Duke

This feels like cheating because the Irish have 6 pre-October games by virtue of having that Week 0 matchup vs. Navy. It’s strange that half the schedule will be over by the end of September. Whatever the case, last year’s Navy game was decided by 3 points thanks to an Irish goose egg in the second half, and the Midshipmen rank No. 17 in percentage of returning production. But that’s a 3-touchdown spread for the matchup in South Bend so let’s look beyond that to the 3 games that could easily trip up the Irish.

The Irish have road games against a pair of ACC teams that won 8 or 9 games last year. Duke, fresh off a banner Year 1 with Mike Elko, is No. 33 in percentage of returning production with one of the most underrated returning quarterbacks in Riley Leonard. NC State has 1 home loss the past 2 years, and it came with Devin Leary out with a season-ending pec injury.

Even if Notre Dame splits that, of course, there’s the Ohio State game. Yes, the Irish played extremely well defensively last year in Columbus. And Sam Hartman should give Notre Dame a better shot, especially with that one being in South Bend. But that was also before Marvin Harrison Jr., AKA 1 of the top 2 returning players in America, became a thing. And history is working against a Notre Dame squad who is just 3-23 vs. AP Top 5 teams since 1999. A 4-2 start would dash Irish Playoff hopes before October for the second consecutive year.

7. Clemson

September schedule — at Duke, vs. Charleston Southern, vs. FAU, vs. Florida State, at Syracuse

OK, I have Clemson in the Playoff. I’m admitting that I believe the Tigers will get through a tricky September. But I included them on a list of teams that “could” have 2 losses because they have 3 potential trip-up games. Yes, traveling to face a 9-win Duke team is one of those, as is a trip to Syracuse, who feels like the only ACC team that consistently scares Clemson (4 of their past 6 games were decided by 1 score). And yes, FSU hasn’t beat Clemson since the aforementioned Winston era, but this is also perhaps the best the Noles have been since that 2014 season. A preseason top-10 ranking feels imminent, and if they beat LSU in Orlando, look out.

That’s for a team with a new starting quarterback, a new offensive coordinator and a new scheme. Even though there’s hope from many — myself included — that hiring Garrett Riley to overhaul the offense was an essential move in order to get Clemson back to the Playoff, it could still yield a slow start. It might just be a question of how Dabo Swinney’s squad handles some tight late-game situations.

Even with down preseason expectations for the ACC, Clemson’s path back to late-season Playoff relevance is no cakewalk.