Betting Stuff: 4 players worth backing to win the Heisman Trophy in 2024

In January 2023, Jayden Daniels was far from the Heisman favorite. Sports bettors who backed Daniels from the outset could have made $1,700 on a $100 wager. USC’s Caleb Williams, the reigning winner entering the 2023 season, was the overwhelming favorite to repeat.

As USC’s season unraveled over the back half of the regular season, Williams faded out of the picture completely. The race was dominated by Daniels, who was having a statistically absurd season for a good-not-great LSU team, and Pacific Northwest rivals Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) and Bo Nix (Oregon), who were in a mad race to the finish to grab a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Nix went into the Pac-12 Championship Game with a hand on the trophy, but a poor performance in a losing effort all but stamped Daniels’ name on the award.

Daniels became the 20th quarterback since 2000 to win the Heisman Trophy. Only 4 non-quarterbacks have won the award since 2000 — 3 running backs and 1 wide receiver. Before DeVonta Smith’s win in 2020, the last Heisman that was won by a non-quarterback/non-running back came in 1997 when Charles Woodson took home the award.

So it should come as no surprise that the top 24 names on the board to win the Heisman Trophy in 2024 are quarterbacks. At DraftKings, Georgia’s Carson Beck and Texas’ Quinn Ewers are currently the co-favorites, with +900 odds each.

If you’re itching to place a spring wager on the Heisman Trophy, here’s who I’d back.

The Favorite: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (+1000 at DraftKings)

Of the last 5 Heisman winners, Bryce Young is the only player who opened their respective season as one of the top 3 favorites. Joe Burrow and DeVonta Smith emerged from the field in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were both outside the top 3 during their winning seasons.

In every instance, though, the Heisman winner authored a statistically magnificent season. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns. Smith had 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. Young led the Power 5 in passing yards (4,872) and produced 50 touchdowns. Williams and Daniels each produced 50 touchdowns as well.

With all due respect to the individual talents of Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers, finding a path to 50 touchdowns for either is a little difficult in 2024. Beck accounted for 28 in 2023; Ewers had 27.

Gabriel produced 42 total touchdowns and 4,033 yards of offense at Oklahoma. This offseason, he transferred to Oregon, where he’ll team with coordinator Will Stein in one of the most wide-open offensive attacks in the sport.

If we’re talking about favorites, Gabriel is my favorite “favorite” because he ticks two key boxes: he plays for a contending team that’ll have a national spotlight every week, and he has massive statistical upside.

Oregon was second in the FBS last season in total offense, producing 531 yards a game. Bo Nix threw for 4,508 yards as Stein allowed him to be the coordinator on the field. Nix had the ability to adjust on the fly, and the authority to call what he wanted when he saw fit.

The coaching staff trusted Nix, who set the FBS record for career starts by a quarterback in 2023. Gabriel could break Nix’s starts record with a full season of games. Gabriel also enters the new season 4,353 yards shy of breaking Case Keenum’s all-time FBS record for career passing yards.

There was not a better quarterback on the market for what Oregon wanted than Gabriel. He’s a seamless fit, giving Stein yet another veteran presence to steer the ship and a commanding talent to execute what the Ducks want to do.

Gabriel will have Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart to throw the ball to. The former was the Pac-12’s No. 4 receiver last year. He’ll also have a senior tight end, a deep stable of running backs, and an offensive line that has given up 10 sacks in the last 2 years despite shifting personnel.

With Bucky Irving leaving and Noah Whittington working his way back from a season lost to injury, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Oregon lean even more on Gabriel’s dual-threat ability early in the season while the run game gets sorted out.

Gabriel has the chance to put up monster numbers with the Ducks.

The Upside QB: Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee (+2500 at DraftKings)

One game doesn’t make a Heisman winner but don’t forget that the last time we saw a high-level quarterback in a Josh Heupel system, Hendon Hooker was playing his way to a Heisman Trophy ceremony invite before an injury.

With Hooker at the controls in 2022, Tennessee was among the country’s best in production (525.5 yards per game; first in FBS), efficiency (7.2 yards per play; second), and scoring (46.1 points, first).

That Tennessee team was on a historic pace until Hooker’s injury. Through the first 10 games in 2022, UT was averaging 0.634 points per play. Since 2000, only 75 FBS teams have done that in a season. Over a whole season, that would have put the 2022 UT offense in the 97th percentile of all FBS seasons since 2000.

Of course, Hooker’s individual awesomeness played a huge role. So did wideout Jalin Hyatt’s ability.

Iamaleava is much closer to Hooker than Joe Milton III was. In 2022, the deep ball was a huge part of Tennessee’s offense. Hooker threw more than 20 yards downfield on a fifth of his throws, per Pro Football Focus, and completed those passes at a 44% clip. He had 13 touchdowns, 17 big-time throws, and 0 turnover-worthy plays, as graded by PFF.

In 2023, Milton completed 29.5% of his deep throws with 10 touchdowns, 12 big-time throws, and 5 turnover-worthy plays. UT needs that deep-ball potency within its offensive toolbox. And capable targets shouldn’t be an issue in 2024, with a receiver group that features the likes of Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, Dont’e Thornton, and Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell.

From my colleague, Connor O’Gara, who shares my optimism for Iamaleava operating in a Heupel offense:

With Iamaleava, the deep-ball accuracy should be closer to what we saw with Hendon Hooker. As we’ve seen, arm strength vs. deep-ball accuracy are wildly different things. Hooker thrived with the latter. The expectation, in a Heupel offense, is that Iamaleava will do the same. That’s saying a lot about a guy with 45 career pass attempts, 0 of which were completions that went for 30 yards.

But spend enough time watching him and you’ll see that Iamaleava can make any throw. That’s off-platform, too, which was something that his predecessor struggled with. Iamaleava’s mobility should be an asset, both to extend plays in the passing game and to move the chains as a runner.

We’ll see how Iamaleava, who started 1 game as a true freshman, manages the ever-growing hype that surrounds him at Tennessee. But I think it’s also fair to point out Iamaleava was a high school sensation who has had to manage a circus before. Pressure isn’t new, and the 4-touchdown effort in a 35-0 bowl victory over Iowa was a good indicator of his ability to block everything else out and ball.

The Running Back: Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State (+7000 at DraftKings)

It has taken a special, narrative-driven season for a running back to wrestle the Heisman away from a quarterback in the last 2-plus decades. Only 2 players have done it since the turn of the century, and both of them played for national title-winning Alabama teams.

Mark Ingram had 1,992 yards and 20 total touchdowns when he won the Heisman in 2009.

Derrick Henry had 2,219 yards and 28 rushing touchdowns when he won in 2015.

We haven’t seen a running back put it all together since. D’Onta Foreman had 2,028 yards for Texas in 2016, but his Longhorns went 5-7. Bryce Love had 2,118 yards for Stanford in 2017, but Stanford went 9-5 and he finished second in voting to a Playoff quarterback.

Despite some individually outstanding seasons, a running back hasn’t finished higher than fifth since.

Gordon finished seventh last season after rushing for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry and added another 330 yards through the air.

This season will be an interesting case study in the role of an expanded Playoff on the Heisman. Daniels won it despite not being on a CFP team because his numbers as a quarterback were undeniable. (Read: historic.)

If a running back were to produce 2,000 yards on the ground before the ceremony takes place, and his team is in the 12-team field, can he break through?

Consider that Gordon received only 19 carries in Oklahoma State’s first 3 games of 2023. The Cowboys labored through too-close-for-comfort wins over Central Arkansas and Arizona State before losing to South Alabama on Sept. 16. Gordon had 3 carries for 12 yards in that game.

Over Oklahoma State’s last 11 games of 2023, the offense was retooled to feature Gordon. During that time, he averaged 24 carries, 147.5 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns a game. Oklahoma State won 7 of its final 8 regular-season games to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Over a 13-game sample, that output works out to 1,917 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground.

Head coach Mike Gundy was heavily criticized for not featuring Gordon enough to start the year, and the results certainly supported that criticism. When Gordon received at least 15 carries, OSU went 8-1. When he had fewer than 15, the Cowboys went 2-3.

This fall, Oklahoma State returns quarterback Alan Bowman for a seventh season of college ball. The top 2 receivers return, as do each of the 7 offensive linemen who played more than 200 snaps last year. The pass game should command some respect, and there’s no reason for Gundy to orient his offense around anyone other than Gordon from the season’s opening kick.

With Oklahoma and Texas exiting the Big 12, the Cowboys have a path to a Playoff spot. And Gordon, who won the Doak Walker Award in 2023, enters the season with a reputation to uphold. I like the value here.

The Longshot Play: Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona (+12000 at DraftKings)

Look, is it likely a wideout wins the Heisman? No. But McMillan had an absolutely monster sophomore campaign for Arizona last season and returns in 2024 as one of the sport’s best receivers.

Jedd Fisch left Arizona for Washington and hoped to be able to take quarterback Noah Fifita and McMillan with him. Both elected to stay in Tucson to finish what they started. Last year, Arizona (10-3, 7 straight wins to end the year) ranked 11th in offensive efficiency and once Fifita took over the starting quarterback role in Week 5 the offense pumped out 37 points a game.

McMillan and Fifita were high school teammates. Their relationship was key in getting McMillan to Arizona in the first place, and their chemistry helped turn the duo into household names down the stretch last season.

The 6-foot-5 McMillan is a contested catch machine, a vertical threat who has his quarterback’s undivided attention. McMillan’s 130 targets were eighth among all FBS receivers. His 34 contested targets were the most of any FBS receiver. And his 17 contested catches were tied for the second-most among FBS receivers; only Washington’s Rome Odunze had more.

Fifita just throws it up for McMillan. Of course, McMillan gets himself open but even when he’s not beating the coverage, his quarterback is giving him a chance to go make a play and his ridiculous physical profile is giving him the edge.

McMillan had 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns as a sophomore. With Jacob Cowing (121 targets) gone, the potential workload for McMillan means a DeVonta Smith-like season is a very real possibility.

Smith’s Heisman-winning season featured huge, highlight-reel plays and nary a drop. McMillan (5 drops in 211 career targets) can do the same kinds of things. And, like Oklahoma State, Arizona has a path to a Playoff spot in the new Big 12.

I think Luther Burden III (+8000) at Missouri is also worth a look, but Missouri returns Theo Wease Jr. and Mookie Cooper (123 combined targets last year) along with Burden. Whereas McMillan has a stranglehold on a huge share of the passing production at Arizona, Burden — who is probably the best returning receiver in football, to be clear — will be sharing targets and touchdowns.

Related: Sports betting will be live in North Carolina in less than a week! Here’s all the info fans need to get set up with DraftKings North Carolina ahead of its official launch on March 11!