Can ranking each team in 10 categories predict final standings in SEC West?

So long as Nick Saban is the coach, I’ll be picking Alabama to win the West each and every year at SEC Media Days.

Since Saban took control of the Crimson Tide back in 2007, only two teams have been able to unseat them: LSU (’07, ’11) and Auburn (’10, ’13). No question about it, ‘Bama will once again be favored in the division.

Sorting out the other six programs can be a challenge, though. While they can all hang with the Tide here and there — and even beat them on occasion — they tend to knock each other off over the course of a full season. As a result, rarely have Saban and Co. needed to go undefeated in league play in order to go to Atlanta.

So instead of making traditional predictions, perhaps a mathematical approach will prove to be more accurate in the end. I’ve come up with 10 categories and ranked all seven schools from 1-7 based on my own observations.

The result is an equally weighted point system. Similar to the old BCS, lower numbers are better. Here are the categories:

Quarterback: Because it’s the most important position in sports, it deserves its own category. The better your QB, the better your team.

Rushing offense: Not only does this include the talent in the backfield, but blocking up front is considered. So is the quarterback’s ability to run.

Passing offense: This accounts for the non-quarterback elements of throwing the ball, like receivers, tight ends, protection and even scheme.

Rushing defense: Fairly self-explanatory, the ability to stop the run is paramount for any team and helps a defense get off the field.

Passing defense: More than just secondary play from cornerbacks and safeties, the personnel rushing the passer is every bit as important.

Special teams: From kicking to punting and the coverage units to the return game, football’s third phase tends to be overlooked.

Coaching: Needless to say, the head coach is the most important member of any program. However, coordinators also play a role.

Schedule: Who plays who at home or on the road in 2017 can be crucial, as well as any cross-division matchups against the East.

Recruiting: Instead of trying to get fancy locating immediate-impact freshmen, I simply borrowed February’s team rankings from 247Sports.

Momentum: Some teams appear to be headed in the right direction. Others seem to be fighting gravity. This is mostly intangible, of course.

The rankings below are entirely my own. They’re a product of what we saw last year and what we can expect to see this season:

QUARTERBACK

1. Alabama
2. Arkansas
3. Ole Miss
4. Auburn
5. Mississippi State
6. LSU
7. Texas A&M

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Even if he struggled throwing the football in last year’s postseason, Alabama’s Jalen Hurts is the reigning Offensive Player of the Year in the SEC. Texas A&M has the most unsettled situation in the conference under center. Jake Hubenak, Nick Starkel and Kellen Mond were all less than impressive in the spring game.

RUSHING OFFENSE

1. Auburn
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Mississippi State
5. Texas A&M
6. Arkansas
7. Ole Miss

The league’s premier one-two punch at tailback isn’t at Georgia with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. It’s at Auburn with Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. Even after changing offensive coordinators, Ole Miss still shows no desire to be balanced. Jordan Wilkins is a pretty good player but likely won’t get enough carries.

PASSING OFFENSE

1. Ole Miss
2. Arkansas
3. Alabama
4. Auburn
5. Mississippi State
6. Texas A&M
7. LSU

Fortunately, Ole Miss should be able to light it up on just about anybody through the air. Shea Patterson is ready to become a superstar field general, plus his receiving corps is just loaded. If there’s anything preventing LSU from being all it can be, it’s the passing game. We’ll see if new OC Matt Canada makes any difference.

RUSHING DEFENSE

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Mississippi State
4. Auburn
5. Texas A&M
6. Arkansas
7. Ole Miss

Death, taxes and Alabama having the best run defense in the country. Those are the only certainties in life these days. It simply doesn’t matter who Saban loses to the NFL year after year. As for Ole Miss, that front seven didn’t live up to its billing a season ago. Opponents ran the rock early, often and quite effectively.

PASSING DEFENSE

1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. Arkansas
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State
7. Texas A&M

The LSU secondary has called itself “DBU” for years, and rightly so. Even with corner Tre’Davious White and safety Jamal Adams leaving as first-round picks, plenty of 4- and 5- star replacements remain. Texas A&M finished 13th in the SEC against the pass in 2016, and that was with defensive end Myles Garrett in the lineup.

SPECIAL TEAMS

1. Auburn
2. Texas A&M
3. Ole Miss
4. Alabama
5. Arkansas
6. LSU
7. Mississippi State

Somewhat middle of the pack when it came to punting and the return game, what set Auburn apart last year was the kicking of Daniel Carlson. He’s back and might be the best specialist in America. The kicking game was an issue this past season for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs also finished dead last in punt-return average.

COACHING

1. Alabama
2. Mississippi State
3. Auburn
4. Arkansas
5. LSU
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M

Saban is without a doubt the top coach in the nation at Alabama, and he’s making a case to be the greatest coach in history. Brian Daboll taking over for Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator will be interesting to watch, though. At Texas A&M, Kevin Sumlin surely sits on the SEC’s hottest seat. The last four Novembers, he’s 7-9.

SCHEDULE

1. Auburn
2. Alabama
3. Mississippi State
4. Arkansas
5. Texas A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. LSU

Most important, Auburn gets Alabama at home. It also hosts a yearly matchup with Georgia, plus at Missouri is a pretty easy cross-division assignment. LSU is paying the price for getting an extra home game last year. It has both Florida and Tennessee on the road in the East, not to mention yet another trip to Alabama.

RECRUITING

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Auburn
4. Texas A&M
5. Mississippi State
6. Arkansas
7. Ole Miss

Seemingly nothing can stop Saban on the recruiting trail. According to the composite rankings at 247Sports, Alabama has signed the No. 1 class in the country every year since 2011. Ole Miss was making a lot of noise on signing day for a while, but it was quiet this February. Potential NCAA sanctions loom over the program.

MOMENTUM

1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Mississippi State
4. LSU
5. Arkansas
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Alabama train keeps rolling along. Even after coming up short in the national championship game against Clemson, the Crimson Tide have a much better chance to make it back than the Tigers do. Ole Miss is in a state of limbo to some degree. Just the possibility of punishment from the NCAA has been damaging in its own right.

FINAL STANDINGS

1. Alabama (19)
2. Auburn (28)
3. LSU (38)
4. Mississippi State (43)
5. Arkansas (44)
6. Ole Miss (51)
7. Texas A&M (53)

To the surprise of nobody, the numbers suggest Alabama is by far the class of the West and should emerge victorious.

Auburn is on the right path, especially if Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham helps the passing game. LSU’s issue is on the sideline. The Ed Orgeron hire was a great story, but we don’t know if he’ll actually be a better coach than Les Miles.

Finishing a relatively surprising fourth, Mississippi State has a dangerous dual-threat QB in Nick Fitzgerald and an underrated coach in Dan Mullen. Arkansas is right behind and has a solid passer in Austin Allen, although there is work to be done on D. If Patterson lives up to his potential, he can cover up some warts at Ole Miss.

Bringing up the rear is Texas A&M. Sumlin needs to decide on a starting quarterback. The defense is in rebuilding mode post-Garrett. Special teams are strong, but in no other category did the Aggies place higher than fourth.

Is it a perfect system? Of course not. But it might turn out to be more reliable than any logic I’ve employed up until now.