Don’t get mad. It’s just a projection based on ESPN’s made-up formula.

That’s what I have to remind myself.

Football Power Index (FPI) is “meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season” based on how many points above or below average a team is.

So naturally, it uses projected wins to get there. That means that the disrespect card is already out and full force for a few SEC teams. For others, “overrated” sounds a bit more appropriate.

Using the too high/too low/just right scale, I explained my reaction to each of those projected win totals. I’ll have a much more in-depth crystal ball for each team’s win total later this summer, but for now, here are my initial reactions:

Alabama

ESPN FPI win projection — 10.8

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — I mean. It’s Alabama. You pencil the Tide in for 11 wins until further notice. The reason they aren’t closer to 12 is because of the exact scenario that we saw last year. Alabama can go 11-1 and miss out on a division crown with a loss to Auburn. But FPI gives Alabama at least a 77 percent chance to win non-Iron Bowl games. And in case you forgot, the Iron Bowl is at home. I might’ve just talked myself into a “too low” projection.

Arkansas

ESPN FPI win projection — 5.9

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — This is tricky because there’s a chance that Chad Morris is the fly in the ointment and he starts becoming a 7-8 win team with scary upside immediately. I don’t think his offense takes the SEC by storm in Year 1, but I do think the Razorbacks have a solid chance of going bowling. With that cake non-conference schedule (thanks, Michigan), Arkansas doesn’t have to do much to get to 6 wins. That’d be a fair place for Morris to start.

Auburn

ESPN FPI win projection — 9.1

Too high/too low/just right — Too high

Why — Settle down, Auburn fans. Before you get too upset with me, think about this. Auburn has the following games on the schedule this year:

  • vs. Washington (neutral site)
  • at Mississippi State
  • at Georgia
  • at Alabama

Those are four games that Auburn could face top-15 teams away from Jordan-Hare. What if I told you that Gus Malzahn was 9-9 vs. Power 5 teams on the road since the start of 2014? Even when Auburn beat Alabama for the SEC West crown last year, it still was a completely different team on the road. I question how Auburn will win 9 games with those matchups, as well as no-picnic home games vs. LSU and Texas A&M.

Florida

ESPN FPI win projection — 8.1

Too high/too low/just right — Too high

Why — I don’t like suggesting that any team is going to double its win total from one year to the next. Yes, I understand that the Gators were the most talented 4-win team in America. There are expectations that Dan Mullen can possibly pull off a feat similar to Jim Harbaugh, who turned a 5-win Michigan team into a double-digit winner in Year 1.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

But with questions at quarterback still, I’m not liking the Gators’ chances of reaching 8 wins. I don’t think they’ll be ready to beat Florida State, Georgia or MSU away from The Swamp and I’m not convinced that home slate with LSU, Mizzou and South Carolina will be much fun. I’d say 7 wins is more realistic.

Georgia

ESPN FPI win projection — 10.9

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — The talk about Georgia running the table will increase significantly if it can get past South Carolina in that massive showdown in Columbia in Week 2. The Dawgs should still have one of the best running games in America, plus an experienced Jake Fromm will open up the offense even more. That’s key because the defense, in all likelihood, is in for at least a small step back with all of those veteran linebackers gone. Still, the East is forgiving, and so is a non-conference schedule with a home game vs. Georgia Tech as the headliner.

Kentucky

ESPN FPI win projection — 5.4

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — Quietly, Mark Stoops racked up consecutive 7-win seasons in Lexington. That doesn’t guarantee a third, but with Benny Snell back to carry the offense, I like Kentucky at least keeping its head above water. The Wildcats certainly need linebacker Jordan Jones to make a full recovery and a seamless transition for JUCO quarterback/Oregon transfer Terry Wilson would be huge. Here’s the problem. The schedule is pretty challenging. Three of Kentucky’s four SEC home games are against possible preseason top-25 teams (Georgia, MSU, South Carolina) and road games at Florida, Louisville, Mizzou, Tennessee and Texas A&M could make Kentucky an underdog for 8 of 12 games. Seven wins would be a big accomplishment.

LSU

ESPN FPI win projection — 6.2

Too high/too low/just right — Too low

Why — No, I don’t think that LSU has a 6-win season and Orgeron is gone at season’s end. Many might think that, and I can sort of see why. We have no idea what the quarterback situation will look like and LSU lost a pair of NFL running backs. I wonder how the Tigers are going to score in games vs. Miami, at Auburn, at Florida, vs. Georgia, vs. Alabama.

Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Forget where they’re being played. Those are 5 teams who could have top-20 defenses that could stymie a one-dimensional attack. Maybe this is just a gut call, but I see LSU finding a way to at least win a couple of those games — I’m not saying which ones yet — in some 17-16 scrum. I’ll say LSU looks more like an 8-win team because of how talented that defense still is.

Mississippi State

ESPN FPI win projection — 8.4

Too high/too low/just right — Too low

Why — In case you haven’t seen, I’m all in on the Joe Moorhead bandwagon. I think he could actually take the MSU offense to new heights in Year 1. That’s how good of an offensive mind he is. There are still plenty of defensive playmakers for the Bulldogs to make noise in the West. The game in Tuscaloosa is the only game I see on the schedule that looks like it would be a significant upset. The rest — even the home game against Auburn — look extremely winnable. I think there’s a chance that MSU winds up as a 9-10 win team and Moorhead earns SEC Coach of the Year honors.

Mizzou

ESPN FPI win projection — 7.3

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — As much as Drew Lock and Mizzou fans want this to be a “championship team,” I’m not seeing it. I’m not seeing an offense that’s going to be even better under Derek Dooley. What I am seeing is an SEC schedule that starts vs. Georgia, at South Carolina and at Alabama. That doesn’t include road games at Purdue, Florida and Tennessee, all of which Mizzou could be an underdog. There’s a decent chance that 2018 looks a lot like 2017 and Mizzou fans are left wondering how to feel about another roller coaster 7-win season.

Ole Miss

ESPN FPI win projection — 6.3

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — I’ve said that as much as I love the Ole Miss offense, a team that can’t stop the run has a ceiling of 6-7 wins. There are just too many SEC teams who do it well and can expose the Rebels if they don’t make significant strides in that department. Ole Miss has home games against 4 SEC teams who won 9-plus games last year, coupled with road games at LSU and at Texas A&M. Even if Ole Miss wins the season opening shootout against Texas Tech in Houston, 6 wins still looks like a perfectly real possibility.

South Carolina

ESPN FPI win projection — 7.2

Too high/too low/just right — Too low

Why — Don’t worry. I’m not about to say that the Gamecocks are going to beat Georgia and win the East. I am about to say that 7 wins for the Gamecocks seems like a slap in the face after the year that Will Muschamp just had. While I’m not sold on Jake Bentley yet, I can’t deny that without Deebo Samuel and a competent offense, Muschamp’s defense paved the way for a 9-win season. There’s a chance that the Gamecocks are only underdogs vs. Georgia and at Clemson. If that’s the case, another 9-win season is certainly realistic.

Tennessee

ESPN FPI win projection — 5.8

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — I keep going back and forth about whether the Vols will make a bowl in Year 1, so why not agree with a projection that reflects that? A lot of this depends on if the Vols find an answer at quarterback. They wouldn’t mind if Keller Chryst saved his best for last and was a one-year revelation in Knoxville.

Credit: Caitie McMekin-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not worried about Jeremy Pruitt’s ability to coach up a defense that was dominated in the run game last year (having an average offense would help). Even if Tennessee’s only 2 wins in the first half come via ETSU and UTEP, the Vols close the season with winnable games vs. Charlotte, vs. Kentucky, vs. Mizzou and at Vanderbilt. All things considered, 6 wins wouldn’t be a bad start for the Pruitt era.

Texas A&M

ESPN FPI win projection — 7.4

Too high/too low/just right — Too high

Why — I might catch some heat for this, but hear me out. I wonder how Jimbo Fisher is going to build a team up when it isn’t loaded with talented upperclassmen like his 2010 Florida State squad. In what could be the toughest division in college football, I won’t be surprised if the Aggies take a small step back to 6 wins. Why? Besides having that Clemson showdown at home in Week 2, the Aggies have SEC road games at Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn. That could easily be 5 losses. That’s without factoring in a home game vs. an LSU team that’s had the Aggies’ number since they joined the SEC. Something tells me Fisher is going to learn quickly just how difficult it is to navigate through the land mines in the SEC.

Vanderbilt

ESPN FPI win projection — 3.9

Too high/too low/just right — Just right

Why — It’s hard to see Vanderbilt beating a Power 5 team on that schedule. Going up to Notre Dame seems daunting, and while the home schedule isn’t too bad (South Carolina, Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee), I can’t get on board with the Commodores reaching a bowl game after how awful the defense was in SEC play. Maybe Kyle Shurmur can do his best Drew Lock imitation and lead Vandy to a couple of offensive outbursts in conference play, but I’m not holding my breath on Derek Mason’s squad to do anything more than win 4 games in 2018.