Final thoughts (and a prediction) for LSU-Ole Miss

Go back to halftime of last year’s matchup.

An undefeated No. 7-ranked Ole Miss went into Death Valley and led 5-2 unranked LSU 20-17 at the break. Ole Miss was 30 minutes from staying perfect and being in the driver’s seat in the SEC West. To that point at Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin was 20-0 with a halftime lead. And to that point, Kiffin had won 18 of his past 21 games.

All was looking up for Ole Miss … until it wasn’t.

LSU, as it often did in 2022, woke up in the second half. Jayden Daniels led a 28-0 push to roll to a 45-20 victory. Ole Miss went from knocking on the door of a top-5 ranking to dropping 5 out of the last 6. Since the break at LSU, Ole Miss has been outscored by 54 points with a 2-6 record against Power 5 competition. LSU, on the other hand, went on to win the SEC West, outscoring its final 3 Power 5 foes by 62 points.

Of course, LSU and Ole Miss are now in an extremely similar position. The loser is staring at that dreaded second loss in September while the winner will get a pivotal win in the West race.

So who avoids that and heads into October with Playoff dreams alive? Let’s dig into that:

1. Pick your poison between Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.

The LSU receivers have been dominant in the first 4 weeks. How dominant? They have a combined 936 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, which is easily the most of an SEC pass-catching duo (Ole Miss’ Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins are next with 650 receiving yards). Among FBS receiving duos, they rank No. 2 behind only Washington’s Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, who have 971 receiving yards (but 3 fewer receiving scores).

In 3 games against FBS competition, either Thomas or Nabers hit 130 receiving yards individually. It’s why they both rank in the top 4 in the SEC in receiving. LSU OC Mike Denbrock will line them up all over the formation. Even though Thomas operates mostly as an outside receiver, he still averaged 7.3 slot snaps per game while Nabers averaged 20.5 snaps in the slot and 34 snaps on the outside.

In other words, Ole Miss DC Pete Golding has his work cut out for him.

To Golding’s credit, Ole Miss has yet to allow a receiver to hit the century mark and that group only allowed 4 passing touchdowns all season. Granted, it’s not like they faced Joe Burrow every week. Daniels might not be distributing the rock like Burrow, but he’s averaging 324 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 1 in the SEC and No. 4 in FBS.

Ole Miss corners Deantre Prince and Zamari Walton won’t face a tougher matchup this year than this one.

2. It’d be fun to see peak-Quinshon Judkins again

I apologize if I sound like a broken record here, but it’s been a bummer of a start to Judkins’ sophomore campaign. The guy who had more rushing yards than any SEC true freshman not named “Herschel Walker” is in the midst of that dreaded sophomore slump.

Through 4 games, here are Judkins’ numbers:

• 201 rushing yards (No. 13 in SEC)
• 70.3 scrimmage yards/game (No. 21 in SEC)
• 3.5 yards/carry (No. 33 in SEC)
• 0 runs of 20 yards

It’s wild to think that there are 43 SEC players with a run of 20 yards, and Judkins, who had a Power 5-best 19 runs of 20 yards in 2022, doesn’t have one yet. Through Week 4, 10 SEC quarterbacks have a run of 20 yards.

He’s been dealing with a rib injury, and clearly, teams are selling out to make sure the prolific tailback doesn’t beat them. Thus is life when you explode as a true freshman in the SEC. Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. have moved him around the formation with 11 slot snaps, 8 snaps at outside receiver and 3 snaps as a Wildcat quarterback. Judkins does have catches of 25 and 21 yards this season, so it’s not as if his burst is totally gone.

But this would be an ideal time for a breakout effort. In addition to the possibility that LSU could be banged up at linebacker — Omar Speights missed the Arkansas game with a hip flexor injury — Kelly’s squad ranks No. 98 in FBS with 4.4 yards/carry allowed. In the first half of games, the Tigers allowed 5.7 yards/carry, which ranks dead last among Power 5 programs. Maybe all Judkins needs is that one big 40-yard run early to turn his season around.

Whatever the case, one would think that he needs to look like the 2022 version of himself for Ole Miss to make it a 60-minute game.

3. A reminder that Jaxson Dart’s splits vs. winning teams vs. non-winning teams aren’t great

Just as I was starting to turn the corner on the notion of Dart being one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, he reminded me why I was in wait-and-see mode with him entering 2023. Ole Miss got into the red zone 4 times against Alabama and left Tuscaloosa with just 10 points to show for it. That looked more like Dart’s 2022 red-zone numbers, which weren’t great:

• 15 rushes for 22 yards (No. 48 in SEC)
• 1 rushing TD
• 3 INTs (2nd worst in SEC)
• 152.5 QB rating (No. 11 in SEC, min. 20 pass attempts)

That’s the micro issue with Dart. The macro issue is that against FBS teams that finished with a winning record in 2022, the drop-off in production was significant:

In 2 games against FBS teams with a winning record this year (Tulane and Alabama), Dart has a 133.1 quarterback rating with a 2-2 TD-INT ratio and he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt. He also was held to 1.8 yards/carry with 1 score with his legs.

Yes, that sample size is small, and he was excellent in clutch situations against Tulane. But if Dart had come out and continued his Year 2 progression in the system against Alabama, we’d be having a different conversation. Instead, we’re left wondering if Dart can keep Ole Miss in the hunt against better competition.

In his defense, it’s been a revolving door at the pass-catcher positions. Louisiana Tech transfer Tre Harris set an Ole Miss record with 4 receiving scores in his first game, but he’s been sidelined since the first half of Week 2. Decorated UTSA transfer receiver Zakhari Franklin has yet to play a game while Memphis tight end transfer Caden Prieskorn was sidelined for the first 3 games. To make matters worse, multiple outlets reported on Tuesday that Tulane game hero and Dart’s former USC teammate, Michael Trigg, was no longer with the program after Week 4 (don’t forget the 4-game redshirt rule).

Dart has mostly been able to make it work so far. He’d prefer to have all hands on deck against an LSU secondary that’s been extremely hot and cold to start the season.

Speaking of that LSU defense against the pass …

4. Harold Perkins is lining up all over the place, but it’s obvious what his impact needs to be

I’m not here to pretend that I’m smarter than LSU DC Matt House. That guy will forget more about defense than I’ll ever learn. That much is obvious. So one would think that he has seen what others have. Perkins’ biggest impact is still when he gets significant opportunities to pin his ears back and rush the passer.

Here are Perkins’ numbers as a pass-rusher through Week 4 (via PFF):

• Week 1 vs. FSU: 7 snaps as a pass-rusher, 0 TFLs, 0 sacks
• Week 2 vs. Grambling: 10 snaps as a pass-rusher, 0 TFLs, 0 sacks
• Week 3 at Mississippi State: 17 snaps as a pass-rusher, 2 TFLs, 1 sack
• Week 4 vs. Arkansas: 16 snaps as a pass-rusher, 1.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 2 forced fumbles

Are you catching my drift here? This will come as no shock to say that LSU’s best defensive asset is at his best when he’s rushing the passer. Of course, that’s not the role he’s been in as an off-ball linebacker.

Through 4 games, here’s how LSU had Perkins lined up:

• D-Line: 77 snaps
• Box: 76 snaps
• Slot CB: 47 snaps

We know that Perkins can blitz from all of those spots, so that’s not the issue. The question is what happens post-snap. Perkins is still very much a work in progress in coverage and against the run. There’s a good chance that the 19-year-old will improve greatly in those areas over what should be a long career in this sport.

But much like I referenced after the season-opening loss wherein Perkins’ usage was a hot topic of discussion in Baton Rouge, House’s game plan should be focused on what gives LSU the best chance to win an all-important matchup. This isn’t supposed to be about letting Perkins figure things out, hoping it’ll yield long-term benefits. If the focus is on putting Perkins in the best spots possible to halt that potent Ole Miss offense, LSU will be much better off on Saturday.

5. The conversation surrounding the losing coach won’t be pretty

Brian Kelly is unofficially a top-3 “time to clown this coach” after losing. We got a reminder of that after the Florida State loss. The internet enjoys teeing off on Kelly and pointing out examples of why he’s not an elite coach. That’s going to be reality as long as Kelly is at a high-profile program. Losing to Ole Miss for loss No. 2 in September would have the internet saying “Kelly had his most talented team ever and he couldn’t get out of September with Playoff hopes.”

For Kiffin, loss No. 2 would be handled a touch differently. Ole Miss falling to 0-2 in SEC play with losses to the West favorites would continue the conversation: When will Kiffin get a signature win at Ole Miss? His best win to date was the 2020 Outback Bowl win against Indiana or … a home win against 8-4 A&M in 2021? Kiffin has just 1 win all-time against a Power 5 team that went on to win at least 9 regular season games. That happened in 2011.

Also, we’re a week removed from talking about Kiffin blowing an “if not now, then when” game against Alabama. Going from unbeaten with a realistic path to the program’s first SEC Championship berth to being out of the race entirely in a span of 8 days would be ugly.

No, neither coach is on the hot seat. This is more about approval rating within the fan base. As we know, that 2nd loss always hits differently in the SEC.

And a prediction … Ole Miss 35, LSU 31

For the second weekend in a row in previewing an Ole Miss game, I’m throwing out a lot of the “on-paper” elements. Is LSU the better team? Yes. Would I pick LSU to win by a touchdown at a neutral site? Absolutely.

But this game won’t be played on paper. It’ll be played with a desperate Ole Miss squad and perhaps, dare I say, an overconfident LSU squad. This notion that the Tigers have totally turned the corner following the FSU loss is justified, to a certain extent. They still have worrisome defensive flaws on the back end, and when they face a mobile quarterback who can shift the pocket, we’ve seen that group exposed.

My gut is telling me that this is the game that this is the game where Kiffin exorcises some demons. We see a much more prepared offensive game plan than the one Kiffin rolled out at Alabama, and as a result, LSU is playing on its heels in a hostile environment. That’s bad news against a resurgent Judkins and a frustrated offensive line.

Kiffin picks up his biggest win to date, and LSU watches its Playoff hopes go up in smoke.