1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

This was inevitable. There was no avoiding it.

Once the decision was made by Florida officials to keep Billy Napier, once the administration at Florida went all-in on Year 3 in 2024, defections and drama would soon follow.

This was going to happen no matter what decision was made. The difference is, the decision to keep Napier only compounds the problems heading into next season with another year of hope against hope.

It’s bad enough that Florida just finished its 2nd straight 7-loss season under Napier, capping a run of 3 straight 7-loss seasons for the first time in school history.

It’s bad enough that Napier is 11-14 in 25 games in Gainesville, including 7-14 vs. Power 5 teams.

It’s bad enough that Florida under Napier has 1 win in 2 seasons vs. core 4 rivals Georgia, FSU, Tennessee and LSU.

It’s bad enough that the program, on game day, is an operational and functional mess and has had 2 straight seasons of historically poor defense.

But when the transfer portal opened last week, the Florida administration got a clear and unambiguous look at what’s going on inside the locker room — and what they’re facing in 2024.

Arguably Florida’s best player on each side of the ball entered the transfer portal: Edge Princely Umanmielen and RB Trevor Etienne. More disturbing is the way both left, clearly explaining the reason, without doubt, is coaching.

Umanmielen who declared on Twitter that his transfer “has nothing at all to do with money,” responded to a fan who asked if he would be willing to return to Gainesville depending on whom the Gators hire to replace fired DL coach Sean Spencer (more on that later). He simply said, “Yes.”

Etienne’s mother, Donna, after seeing enough of enraged Gators fans going after her and Trevor on Twitter, reposted to 1 specific Florida fan: “I don’t understand why you are so butt hurt about losing RB2” — underscoring maybe the most confounding decision about this 2-year run under Napier.

For some reason, Napier and his staff gave the most dangerous and dynamic player on offense — an elite player who can score on any snap from anywhere on the field — an average of 13.8 touches per game in 2023, and 9.7 touches per game in 2022.

An run-based offense devoid of game-breaking talent, with a system and quarterback that focused 1st level, dink and dunk throws in the passing game for a majority of the season, gave the ball to its most dangerous player 13.8 times a game — when it averaged 67.5 plays a game.

I’m not a mathematician, but that’s putting the ball in the best player’s hands 20.4% of the time.

By comparison, Missouri gave the ball to RB Cody Schrader, its most dynamic option on offense, 33.5% of the time (269 touches, 22.4 per game).

Etienne averaged 6.08 yards per touch; Schrader averaged 6.24. Etienne is in the transfer portal; Schrader is All-SEC.

With Florida desperate for 1 win — 1 lousy win — over the final 5 games of the season to reach bowl eligibility, Etienne received 8 touches (Georgia), 14 (Arkansas), 19 (LSU), 17 (Missouri), 13 (FSU).

In the 2 games with his most touches (LSU and Missouri), Etienne had 223 total yards and 5 TDs (6.19 yards per touch).

This isn’t rocket science, people.

They may try to tell you there’s more than the eye can see. They may try to sell to combination of Montrell Johnson — who’s a good player, but shouldn’t be receiving the majority of the touches — and Etienne is what’s best for the offense.

But any coach worth his weight in corny cliches knows you put your best players on the field to win games. Period.

That Etienne was standing on the sideline more than half time time while the offense struggled to string together first downs is coaching malpractice.

Imagine how often he’ll be on the field next season. At Georgia or Alabama.

2. The turnover begins, again

When the decision was made to keep Napier, it was made with the idea to ride with his philosophical beliefs in building a team. And more than anything, the results of those decisions.

Like hiring 29-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to run a defense that already had been struggling since 2020, and that Napier knew would be loaded with young players getting their first opportunity to play college football.

The results, not surprisingly, were disastrous. Florida gave up an average of 33.6 points in conference games, which by any metric, is the worst season in school history.

The Gators were 13th of 14 teams in the SEC in sacks (22) and last in turnovers gained (7).

That has to be said again: Florida forced 7 turnovers in 12 games — and gave up a monstrous 471.3 yards per SEC game.

Only 3 times since 2009 — the end of Florida’s remarkable run under former coach Urban Meyer — have the Gators given up more than 400 yards per SEC game. Two of the 3 are the past 2 seasons under Napier, including a mark this season that was 67 yards on average worse than 2022. The 3rd season was 2020.

Napier’s response to this unmitigated mess was to fire defensive line coach Sean Spencer and defensive basks coach Corey Raymond — both highly respected position coaches and elite recruiters.

Never mind that Florida led the SEC in missed tackles and took bad angles, was constantly out of position and looking to the sideline for play calls when the ball was snapped. This was on the defensive line and secondary coaches.

Napier also has a decision to make offensively, where the unit struggled early and began to make headway in the month of November before quarterback Graham Mertz was lost for the season (shoulder) in Week 11.

Mertz threw accurately in the conservative offense, and rarely drove the ball to critical 2nd and 3rd level throws. The season was teetering long before the offense began to attempt (with some success) the more difficult throws.

No matter what the titles say on the coaching staff, Napier is the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach and play-caller. He runs the show. In the last 5 games where Florida needed the offense — where it did play better at times — it couldn’t keep pace with the failing defense.

By keeping Napier, you’re doubling down on an historically bad defense and an uneven offense that just lost its more dangerous player.

The buildout, The Epilogue

Things won’t drastically change in 2024 because of the current top-6 recruiting class. No matter how much better or worse it looks on Dec. 20 — the opening day of the Early Signing Period.

Napier will win enough games — or lose enough to get fired — by the work he does over the next 3-4 months in the transfer portal. Florida needs impact players on both sides of the ball, and specifically where it matters most in the SEC: the lines of scrimmage.

Florida’s lines of scrimmage are weak. They’re not remotely close to competing at an elite level in the SEC — and just lost their best player (Umanmielen) on the defensive line.

High school recruits aren’t immediate saviors, they’re projects who are developed into impact players. It takes time, and it takes talented veterans ahead of them to push them, and show them the investment it takes.

Half of Napier’s first recruiting class already las left the team, including including blue-chip recruits S Kamari Wilson, DT Chris McClellan, WR Caleb Douglas and Etienne. Those are, in theory, foundational players if your due diligence in recruiting and developing has paid off.

Or they’re stark reminders of the failures of the past 2 seasons. That’s not unique to Napier; it’s how it works at every major program that decides to build organically through recruiting. It’s a crapshoot.

Meanwhile, there’s the transfer portal — where, at the very least, there is tape of players in college games. While the portal is full of the unloved and unwanted and also a crapshoot in that sense, there are many players worthy of high-dollar NIL deals that can change the fortunes of a program.

The question: Can Napier sell his plan well enough that those portal players choose Florida over any other program that is structurally in a better place? Because NIL money, everyone, is essentially the same everywhere.

The reality is, the roster is lacking impact Power 5 talent in all areas. The only way to upgrade and turn the fortunes quickly is through the portal.

Want to know what it looks like when it all works? Take a look at Tallahassee, where FSU coach Mike Norvell navigated 2 brutal seasons to begin his tenure — then turned it quickly in Year 3.

Now the Noles have won 19 straight and had an argument this season to make the Playoff. But Norvell recruited the transfer portal better than any program in college football.

In 2 seasons under Napier (not including what could come this offseason), the Gators have this to show for their efforts to sign — and develop — impact players from the portal: Mertz and WR Ricky Pearsall, who just declared for the NFL Draft.

Johnson and G O’Cyrus Torrence, who left for the NFL after 2022, both played with Napier at Louisiana, and were locks to follow him to Gainesville. The remainder of the 18 transfers are full of the unwanted and unloved — and uneven play.

That’s not how Napier keeps his job beyond 2024.

4. The early departures

The moves away from the Georgia program typically fall into 2 categories: the expected and the unexpected.

The expected: Backup QB Brock Vandagriff (to Kentucky), C Sedrick Van Pran (NFL), DT Jonathan Jefferson, CB Nyland Green.

The unexpected: LB Xavian Sorey, a talented former 5-star was stuck behind starter Smael Mondon and fighting off talented 5-star freshman Raylen Wilson. He could’ve moved into the starting role (if/when Mondon declares for the NFL) with a strong offseason.

There’s also a 3rd category: the NFL unknown, those players who could leave early to start their professional careers. At the top of that list of impact players: QB Carson Beck, TE Brock Bowers, LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson, CB Kamari Lassiter, S Javon Bullard and Mondon.

Of that group, Beck might be the 1 player who could stay. Georgia has been working since late October on an NIL package that could give Beck a significant financial option in lieu of 1st-round NFL Draft compensation.

Depending on where Beck would be selected in the 1st round — 1 NFL scout told SDS that Beck would be the 3rd quarterback selected in the draft —Georgia would have to come up with a similar or better deal.

If, for example, Beck were picked at No. 20 overall, his annual compensation (salaries are slotted for 1st round picks) would be $2.6 million. If he were selected No. 10 overall, his annual salary is $4.1 million.

Remember, those are single season salaries — not complete deals. If Beck were chosen No. 10 overall, his overall package is $23 million. No. 20 overall is $15.4 million.

5. The Weekly 5

The top 5 confidence pool rankings for the SEC bowl season.

  • 1. Georgia vs. Florida State (+14), Orange Bowl
  • 2. LSU vs. Wisconsin (+10.5), ReliaQuest Bowl
  • 3. Tennessee vs. Iowa (+7.5), Citrus Bowl
  • 4. Auburn vs. Maryland (+2.5), Music City Bowl
  • 5. Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State (+3), Texas Bowl

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Ole Miss WR Tre Harris.

“I liked him when he was at (Louisiana) Tech, and how he fought for the ball and yards after the catch. He has good size and long arms, and he’s not an easy cover. He’s all arms and strong, and he can get down the middle of the field and cause conflict. That straight line speed is impressive.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Alabama: Think about this: Nick Saban benched QB Jalen Milroe in Week 3 for a quarterback (Tyler Buchner) who just gave up football for lacrosse. Unimaginable.

2. Georgia: Dawgs couldn’t have expected Van Pran to return. He has 2 national titles and can’t risk his NFL career for another college season — no matter the NIL money. He won’t be the last Georgia player in that situation.

3. Missouri: Tigers have sights set on Duke DT transfer Aeneas Peebles (40 tackles, 4 sacks), a strong interior presence on a vastly underrated defensive front.

4. Ole Miss: Rebels struggled in run defense in big games and were desperate for a presence at linebacker. Enter Arkansas transfer LB Chris Paul, the best linebacker in the portal and 1 of the few good things in Fayetteville this season.

5. Tennessee: The Vols underachieved (Florida and Missouri losses were ugly) and can’t finish the season with another disappointment against a one-dimensional team.

6. LSU: Don’t be shocked when Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels opts out of the bowl game. Bigger question: Does Garrett Nussmeier play well enough for LSU to not go after a quarterback in the portal?

7. Kentucky: Vandagriff got a welcome to Lexington gift when LT Marques Cox — who played well this season as a transfer from Northern Illinois — decided to return for his final season.

8. Texas A&M: New Aggies OC Collin Klein will fit the offense around QB Conner Weigman. Translation: Don’t expect an elite thrower in QB run sets like K-State QB Will Howard.

9. Auburn: A chance for Auburn to make a significant entry into the transfer portal: Tigers have zeroed in on Washington State QB Cameron Ward and Vanderbilt WR Will Sheppard.

10. Florida: It’s all about the lines of scrimmage. The Gators need to get bigger and stronger up front to move back into the upper division of the 16-team SEC.

11. South Carolina: Every program is dealing with losses, but the loss of WR Juice Wells was difficult for the Gamecock on numerous levels. First and foremost, he’s an elite player who missed most of 2023 with a foot injury. Secondly, he’s a core player who committed to Shane Beamer and the rebuild and now leaves for his last season.

12. Mississippi State: New coach Jeff Lebby missed out on his former QB Dillon Gabriel (transferred to Oregon). That left the Bulldogs with Baylor transfer Blake Shapen, and Lebby more than likely isn’t done recruiting the position.

13. Arkansas: QB KJ Jefferson wasn’t having fun anymore. Jacoby Criswell won’t be given the job. Maybe Holy Cross’ Matthew Sluka, who is being pursued by Arkansas and new OC Bobby Petrino, is the fit.

14. Vanderbilt: All 3 quarterbacks are in the portal, the 2 top wide receivers are, too. Vandy has offered quarterbacks Cole Snyder of Buffalo and Kurtis Rourke of Ohio.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I don’t think it’s out of the question to think Texas enters the SEC next year after winning the national title. Am I wrong? — Steven Vining, Nashville.

Steven:

If we’re going strictly by betting favorites, Alabama and Texas should play in the national title game. If that happens, Texas obviously won’t be intimidated by Alabama — which it beat earlier in the season by 10 points in Tuscaloosa.

Clearly this is a different Alabama team with the way Tide QB Jalen Milroe has developed since the loss in early September. They’re throwing the ball with more efficiency and proficiency, and Milroe is more dangerous in the QB run game.

Whether Texas wins the national title, the Longhorns have significant momentum after their last season in the Big 12. The Playoff appearance will only further strengthen coach Steve Sarkisian’s strong recruiting in his 3 seasons, and will only make Texas more attractive to elite players in the portal (see: UTSA edge rusher Trey Moore).

Sarkisian is building something unique in Austin, winning big as recruiter and consistently winning games of significance. Texas hasn’t done that since Mack Brown was around.

Winning the national title would be a stunning shot across the bow of the mighty SEC ship — before the Longhorns ever play an official game as a league member.

9. Numbers

142. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman hired Petrino as his OC because of his impressive track record of recruiting and developing quarterbacks.

Now, the problem: Arkansas has given up 142 sacks in Pittman’s 4 seasons in Fayetteville. More disconcerting is both Feleipe Franks and KJ Jefferson were mobile quarterbacks who moved in the pocket and had the ability to break containment and run. And the line still had problems protecting the quarterback.

Sluka, if he is the choice for Arkansas, was sacked 20 times last season.

10. Quote to note

Georgia coach Kirby Smart: “I think of all the ballgames we could be in outside the Playoffs, (the Orange Bowl) is where our kids would love to be.”