1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

It’s playing out just like it did last season. Only this time, a hot LSU team could do more damage than just beat rival Alabama and win the SEC West Division.

It could potentially prevent the SEC from reaching the Playoff.

“Each team is different every year,” LSU coach Brian Kelly said. “The moment is now for us.”

But it sure does look like 2022 all over again. Only there’s much more at stake.

LSU started slow against Florida State in 2022, and gave up more than 40 points in an early SEC loss to Tennessee before finding itself and recalibrating for an impressive 2nd-half run.

The Tigers lost to FSU again to begin this season, had an historically bad defensive performance against Ole Miss in September and is once again playing its best football as the calendar turns to November.

But here’s the difference: If LSU beats Alabama and wins out, and plays Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and wins, there may not be a path for the SEC to the final 4-team Playoff.

How does this happen? Follow along:

— Unbeaten Michigan wins the Big Ten, and earns 1 Playoff spot, leaving 1-loss Ohio State — with big resume wins over Notre Dame and Penn State — as the likely 2nd team from the Big Ten to earn a Playoff spot.

— Unbeaten FSU gets a Playoff spot. Even 1-loss FSU likely gets a spot over 2-loss LSU because of the head-to-head win. That’s 3 Playoff spots.

— That leaves the final Playoff spot between the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC champion. One-loss Georgia (to LSU) doesn’t get a pass for an unbeaten regular season — especially with the horrific nonconference schedule.

That leaves a 2-loss LSU resume against probable 1-loss champions from the Pac-12 (Oregon) and Big 12 (Texas). Texas, like LSU, would have a win over Alabama.

Oregon could have polished off unbeaten Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game, negating the 3-point regular season loss in Seattle.

There are numerous ways this thing can end, but the easiest way the SEC earns a spot in the Playoff is with Georgia or Alabama winning out and winning the SEC.

Anything else leaves the SEC in significant peril of missing its first Playoff.

With a month to play in the season, that doomsday scenario may seem far off. But if LSU wins out, it’s just as likely that what needs to happen to clear the deck for the SEC champion to reach the Playoff won’t happen.

That would mean Texas losing as a big favorite in the month of November (Kansas State, at TCU, at Iowa State, Texas Tech), or losing in the Big 12 Championship Game to Oklahoma.

Or Oregon losing as a heavy favorite in November (Cal, USC, at Arizona State, Oregon State), or losing to Washington again. (And that assumes Washington loses somewhere along the way.)

Or Florida State losing to anyone in the ACC, and I don’t really need to explain that, do I?

The easiest way out of this for the SEC: an Alabama win over surging LSU Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The same LSU with the most dangerous offense in college football, and a defense that’s beginning to figure it out.

“I haven’t really spent time on compare and contrast (of 2022 and 2023),” Kelly said. “Staying in the moment means continuing to work and progress defensively, and continuing to play at a high level on offense.”

2. Simplifying it all

Kelly has mentioned several times in the past 3 weeks that LSU “structurally” tweaked what it was doing defensively to change the production from a unit big on talent — but low on results.

That structure meant less exotic blitz packages and combo coverages, and focusing more on winning individually — both on the line of scrimmage and in the back 7 in coverage.

To be intellectually honest, it’s easy to point to structural changes and see results on the field when you’ve played 2 games against 2 of the worst offenses in college football. Wins over Auburn (99th in the nation in total offense) and Army (111th in the nation) don’t exactly move the meter.

But they do build confidence in scheme and execution -— and that’s the key. The LSU defense has gone from busted coverages that left receivers running free in the secondary, and bad angles and missed tackles that led to an overload of explosion plays, to playing more fundamentally sound and making plays in front of them.

There’s no more bleeding in the 2nd and 3rd levels of the defense, no explosion plays that become touchdowns. Is the opponent part of the improvement? Of course it is.

But so is moving LB Harold Perkins to the edge on the majority of plays, and allowing him to get the quarterback. See ball, get ball.

So is playing more zone behind pressures to protect cornerbacks who aren’t as strong in man coverage. No. 1 CB Zy Alexander, who hurt his ankle against Army, may miss the Alabama game.

That leaves LSU with freshman Ashton Stamps and sophomore Laterrance Welch playing significant minutes across from Sage Ryan, who moved to corner from safety.

But Auburn and Army combined for 14 plays of 10+ yards, and that average of 7 a game was well under what LSU was giving up prior to the structural changes (17.8 per game).

“It’s not like we’re breaking the glass and rolling (young players) out there for the first time,” Kelly said. “We feel good about it.”

Another advantage for LSU: The Alabama offense isn’t built on deception. You know exactly what you’re getting: power run, throw off play-action.

It also helps that Alabama OC Tommy Rees played and coached for Kelly at Notre Dame prior to arriving at Alabama this season, and there’s little doubt that Kelly knows the offense.

He should, because it’s his offense.

3. A season-changing moment, The Epilogue

Before we get too deep in the weeds on the how and why of a revamped LSU defense, let’s not forget what makes the Tigers dangerous in November: QB Jayden Daniels.

The Alabama defense has been strong all season, forcing 3-and-outs and affecting the quarterback like it did in the early years of coach Nick Saban’s dynasty.

But Alabama hasn’t faced any offense like LSU, with a group of skill players so dangerous, they can score from anywhere on the field. At the tip of the spear is Daniels, who not only is completing 73% of his passes and averaging a whipping 11.5 yards per attempt, his off-schedule runs and scrambles suck the soul from defenses desperately trying to stick to WRs Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas and Kyren Lacy.

Then there’s RB Logan Diggs, a downhill runner with game-breaking speed who can move the pile. If Alabama commits to stop the run — which is what it typically does — that leaves its secondary in 1-on-1 individual battles.

That plays right into what LSU wants to do with the accuracy of Daniels and his escapability to extend plays and force the back end to cover longer. It’s a brutal ask for any defense.

LSU had 367 yards yards in last year’s 32-31 overtime win, and this year’s offense is night and day different. They lead the nation in scoring (47.4 ppg.) and total offense (552.9 ypg.), and lead the nation by converting 58% of 3rd-down opportunities.

They’re averaging 18 plays of 10+ yards a game, and 8 plays of 20+ yards a game.

They look a whole lot like the last LSU offense that went into Tuscaloosa and forced its offensive will on the Tide and won. That 2019 team was the best offense in the modern era of college football.

This one isn’t far behind. Nor is the possibility of LSU winning, and starting a chain reaction that could lead to the SEC missing the Playoff for the 1st time ever.

4. The homestretch

They get Georgia at the perfect time. If there really is a perfect time to get the Dawgs.

Georgia is fresh off an emotional rivalry game. Missouri is fresh off a bye week, with 2 weeks to prepare for the 2-time defending national champions.

That’s 2 weeks for Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz, OC Kirby Moore and QB Brady Cook — the keys to the Tigers’ resurgence in 2023 — to find a way to attack the Georgia defense Saturday in Athens.

And then find a way to win the following week. And the week after that.

For all the good Missouri has accomplished this season with the addition of Moore and the resurgence of Cook, November will dictate who and what this team can become.

The rundown: at Georgia, vs. Tennessee, vs. Florida, at Arkansas.

In the past 4 seasons, the Tigers are 1-11 vs. Georgia, Tennessee and Florida, and 3-1 vs. rival Arkansas.

“We’ve seen flashes, but we haven’t put it all together for 4 quarters,” Drinkwitz said. “That’s why this team is so hungry and coachable. They want to prove it to each other.”

But this game against Georgia is a different animal — and where Cook finds out if he can play at a high level on the road, in a season-defining game. Missouri has played 2 games against ranked teams in the past 4 weeks, and Cook had 3 TDs and 3 INTs in a win at Kentucky and a loss at home to LSU.

He played well enough to beat LSU, which got a late pick-6 to make the score look worse than it was. He also wasn’t fazed by a 14-0 hole on the road against Kentucky, and led Missouri to a 38-7 response to finish the game.

The heavy lifting portion of the schedule has arrived for Missouri. Can the Tigers evolve from good to rare?

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

  • LSU at Alabama (-4.5)
  • Texas A&M at Ole Miss (-4.5)
  • Arkansas (+6.5) at Florida
  • Missouri at Georgia (-17.5)
  • Kentucky (-3.5) at Mississippi State

Last week: 3-2.

Season: 25-20.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Georgia LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson.

“I love his motor. A tough guy who loves football. He’s not the tallest guy, a lot like Nakobe Dean in that sense. He’s bigger than (Dean), though not as fast. He’s a thick, athletic thumper. A classic “Mike” (linebacker). Georgia isn’t as good up front as they have been in the past, and (Dumas-Johnson) is still proving he can fill and stuff. He has that lateral ability, but can he be a guy who consistently drops in coverage?”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.

1. Georgia: Young and/or inexperienced pass rush is growing up. Won’t be long until they’re disruptive like 2021-22.

2. Alabama: How do you keep the dangerous LSU offense off the field? Run the ball: Tigers’ defense is giving up 4.67 yards per carry, 12th in the SEC.

3. LSU: Game of the season for OTs Will Campbell, Emery Jones Jr., Lance Heard and the LSU pass protection. If Daniels stays clean, the Alabama secondary will have problems.

4. Missouri: Only Vanderbilt (17) has given up more touchdown passes Mizzou (16) — heading into crucial game against surging Georgia QB Carson Beck.

5. Ole Miss: Rebels still have an opportunity to win the West. Can Ole Miss’ No. 3 rush offense in the SEC (187.5 ypg.) effectively run against Texas A&M, which has the league’s No. 2 rush defense (96.1 ypg.)?

6. Tennessee: QB Joe Milton III is getting more involved in the run offense and becoming a unique short-yardage option. A good changeup for the offense with Missouri and Georgia games looming.

7. Texas A&M: The next 2 weeks will determine Jimbo Fisher’s job security. Aggies can’t consistently lose to Ole Miss and Mississippi State (Texas A&M is 0-4 in those games from 2021-22).

8. Kentucky: QB Devin Leary played his best game of the season against Tennessee. Can UK offense build on it over the final month of the season?

9. Florida: Gators need a win Saturday against Arkansas to reach bowl eligibility — or may not get there the remainder of the season (at LSU, at Missouri, Florida State).

10. Auburn: Tigers have a chance to get a run of wins — at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, New Mexico State — and change the complexion of the season.

11. Mississippi State: Bulldogs aren’t the same team without injured QB Will Rogers. Backup Mike Wright is a limited thrower, and the run game isn’t good enough to win games.

12. Arkansas: The game plan against Florida is straightforward: Run the ball with QB KJ Jefferson and RBs Rashod Dubinion and AJ Green.

13. South Carolina: Gamecocks have played hard in the 4-game losing streak, but how much longer can it last? Don’t slip this week against dangerous Group of 5 Jacksonville State, which can run the ball and chew clock.

14. Vanderbilt: Commodores aren’t winning again this season. Will 9 wins over 3 seasons be enough to stay the course with coach Clark Lea?

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Why doesn’t Alabama use Jalen Milroe’s strength and run him more? — Donald Harris, Montgomery, Ala.

Donald:

You could make an argument that Milroe, if given the opportunity, could be Alabama’s most effective and efficient runner in a zone read option QB run game. The problem: Such a move leaves him susceptible to big hits — and potentially, injury.

And we’ve seen what Alabama has at quarterback behind Milroe, so that’s not an option.

Milroe’s average per rush (1.8 yards) isn’t reality; the 35 sacks Alabama has allowed factor into that number. He may be the fastest player on the team, and at 225 pounds, would be a load to bring down in a consistent zone read run game.

But Alabama has to look big picture because of the limited options behind Milroe, and Milroe must look at big picture because he wants to play quarterback in the NFL. He’s not a polished thrower right now, but has made huge strides since the beginning of the season.

He will get better with each rep in each game, and could develop into a thrower that may eventually be ready for an NFL roster. No sense in hindering that development with consistent QB run packages that force him to absorb hits.

Now if Alabama reaches the SEC Championship Game, and if winning the SEC means getting to the Playoff, then a zone read package may just be the perfect curveball for the Georgia defense. But we’re a long way from that possibility.

9. Numbers

12. As unthinkable as it sounds, South Carolina has now had 12 offensive linemen injured this season. The latest: G Trai Jones, who left the loss to Texas A&M in the 3rd quarter with a lower leg injury.

The injury issues began in March during the Garnett and Black game, when LT Jaylen Nichols — the team’s best lineman and pass protector — sustained a season-ending knee injury. On the first series of the season against North Carolina, RT Cason Henry sustained a lower body injury and hasn’t played since.

It’s easier to see how South Carolina has given up 34 sacks this season, and but for QB Spencer Rattler’s scrambling and ability to throw off schedule — and quick release — it could be much worse.

The inglorious 12 injuries: Nichols (knee), Henry (lower body), Jones (lower body), Markee Anderson (Week 1, knee), Jakai Moore (Week 5, shoulder), Ni Mansell (Week 5, undisclosed), Chase Sweigart (Week 5, undisclosed), Vershon Lee (Week 7, knee), Jaxon Hughes (Week 7, undisclosed), Tree Babalade (Week 8, knee), Trovon Baugh (Week 9, undisclosed).

10. Quote to note

Florida coach Billy Napier: “When you fail in the game of football and in life, you’ve got an opportunity to learn. How do you get smarter and get better at what you do, how do you continue to grow and develop? Ultimately you have to go through tough times, you have to make mistakes along the way.”