Friday Forecast: Saturday Football staff picks for Week 11 CFB slate
The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after 10 weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 56–40–4
- Ethan Stone: 51-45–4
- Paul Harvey: 49–47–4
- Derek Peterson: 47–49–4
Let’s dive in.
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 3 Michigan (-4.5)
Spenser Davis: Penn State is by far the best team Michigan has faced all year. But the Nittany Lions’ offense failed their one test against an elite defense (Ohio State) earlier this season. I believe in Penn State’s overall talent, but not in its offense. PICK: Michigan
Paul Harvey: The Nittany Lions are definitely more talented than the group that lost 41-17 a year ago. And, in Michigan’s last two trips to State College, the results have been a 4-point Michigan win and a 7-point Penn State win. I think Penn State can pull this off outright. But, even if they don’t, it should be close. PICK: Penn State
Derek Peterson: There’s a lot to like here from a Penn State perspective. The Nittany Lions defense can take away the run and then take away the football with the best of them. They’ll be at home, where they’re a much better team. And Michigan has enough going on to think distractions might breach the walls. But my gut here is to ride with the Wolverines. They’re the better team, and I came away from the Ohio State game thoroughly unimpressed with Penn State. PICK: Michigan
Ethan Stone: Michigan can make a lot of people unhappy this weekend with a win over the Nittany Lions. After watching Drew Allar essentially shut down against Ohio State, I think he’ll come out with a little more composure this time around with the home crowd on his side. Let’s get weird. PICK: Penn State
Kentucky vs. No. 8 Alabama (-10.5)
SD: My first instinct was to pick Alabama here. But I think the Tide’s offense is significantly overrated (they’re only in the 57th percentile nationally in offensive success rate). I’m also happy to fade a team that is going on the road in a potential let-down spot after the high of beating LSU last week. PICK: Kentucky
PH: An Alabama squad hitting its stride or a Kentucky team that has struggled against the SEC’s best? Sure, the Tide might experience some regression after Week 10, but I can’t count on that in this game. PICK: Alabama
DP: A little banged up, Alabama goes on the road and wins, but Kentucky keeps it in the single digits. PICK: Kentucky
ES: Kroger Field can’t save you, Wildcats. PICK: Alabama
Colorado vs. No. 21 Arizona (-10.5)
SD: Even on the road, I think this line is disrespectful to the Wildcats. With Pat Shurmur calling the plays, Colorado has no hope of keeping up with Arizona’s hyper-efficient offense. I think the Buffs are closer to being put on quit-watch than they are to keeping this game within single digits. PICK: Arizona
PH: Arizona’s two best wins of the season have come at home in recent weeks, but the Wildcats are not limited to playing well at home. They scored 41 and lost by 2 on the road at USC, they beat Wazzu in a road blowout victory, and they played well against Mississippi State in an SEC road trip earlier in the year. Being a double-digit favorite on the road is tricky, but Colorado cannot get out of its own way right now. PICK: Arizona
DP: A trap game for Arizona. Who would have thought? Colorado is not good, and Shedeur Sanders is playing so hurt that he’s getting injections mid-game just to make it through a full four quarters. They’ve been playing tight every week — four of the last five games have been decided by one score — and I think the wheels start to fall off here against a team that is its antithesis. Arizona plays smart, efficient, balanced football. Colorado is far from that. PICK: Arizona
ES: I’m liking what I’m seeing from Arizona these past few weeks. Colorado has completely fallen by the wayside, so I’ll go with Noah Fifita and Co. to keep the ball rolling. PICK: Arizona
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No. 4 Florida State (-14.5) vs. Miami
SD: Miami’s defense is legit — it’s in the 87th percentile nationally in defensive success rate. But as good as Miami’s defense has been, the Canes have been vulnerable to the big play. That’s FSU’s strength on offense. I also don’t think Tyler Van Dyke is healthy — he has 10 interceptions in his last 4 games. PICK: Florida State
PH: The status of Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman could have a major impact here. Even still, I’m not sure there’s much drama to be had in this matchup after FSU’s thorough demolishing of the Hurricanes a season ago. PICK: Florida State
DP: Seminoles. Big. PICK: Florida State
ES: I have a feeling Florida State may let their guard down a touch with this one and the line is favorable to Miami. I’ll go with the Hurricanes here. PICK: Miami
No. 5 Washington (-9.5) vs. No. 18 Utah
SD: I hate this matchup for the Utes, especially on the road. If Washington is serious about competing for a national title, it will cover this line with ease. PICK: Washington
PH: Even if Utah can hit their season average for scoring, I just don’t see how the Utes slow down Washington enough to keep this thing closer. The Huskies have struggled at times, but not against quality opponents. They’ll be ready for this one. PICK: Washington
DP: Washington plays to the moment. That’s been shown in recent weeks. But I worry that a letdown spot is coming after a huge win over USC. Utah might not have the offense to match a 52-point Washington game, but it certainly has the defense to keep this one from ever getting to that point. The key will be whether Utah can sustain drives. USC had seven of its 10 real possessions end in less than three minutes. That kind of defensive exposure would have left even a competent defense open to being gashed by UW and Ryan Grubb. I think Utah can come with a better gameplan and give the Huskies a scare. PICK: Utah
ES: I really like Utah and I think Kyle Whittingham is severely underappreciated. But we can be honest by saying the Utes just do not have the firepower to keep up here. I’ll roll with Washington. PICK: Washington
No. 14 Missouri vs. No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5)
SD: The Luther Burden injury scares me — he legitimately might be the most irreplaceable wide receiver in the country. Mizzou’s tendency to run the ball more than it should (the Tigers are way more efficient through the air) is also problematic in my opinion. Tennessee showed some real growth with its road win at Kentucky a couple of weeks ago. I like the Vols. PICK: Tennessee
PH: Mizzou showed the Tigers are for real with their performance in Athens a week ago. I also haven’t seen anything out of the Vols to tell me they should be a road favorite against a quality opponent. PICK: Mizzou
DP: Nothing like a cool, crisp 56-point win over an out-of-conference pushover to begin your month of November. Snark aside, Tennessee has put together impressive games in back-to-back weeks. Luther Burden’s status is obviously tricky for Missouri, which has to find a way to rebound from a very tough loss a week ago. I, like Spenser, like the Vols. PICK: Tennessee
ES: Tennessee can lose this game in a lot of ways. The Vols have not played well on the road this season and are beaten up in a secondary that wasn’t very good to begin with. Luther Burden being questionable levels the playing field some, but I still think the Tigers will come out on top in CoMo. PICK: Mizzou
No. 2 Georgia (-10.5) vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
SD: I backed Georgia at home last week and got burned, but I’m going back to the well. The Rebels turned in a very unserious performance against Alabama in Tuscaloosa earlier this season. I think we’ll see something similar this week. PICK: Georgia
PH: Georgia might win a 3rd straight national title, but this team is more vulnerable than the previous two. The Bulldogs probably win outright. However, Mizzou showed quality opponents can hang with Georgia in Athens. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Georgia wins by double-digits. These aren’t games that Lane Kiffin wins. He’s 3-14 in his coaching career against AP top-10 teams, and the losses have been by an average of 16 points. PICK: Georgia
ES: I do not think Ole Miss will win this game, but I do think they’ll keep it close. I think the Rebels are better than Mizzou, which just put up a very strong fight against the Bulldogs in Athens. I don’t expect too much drop off here. Georgia to win, OM to cover. PICK: Ole Miss
No. 19 LSU (-13.5) vs. Florida
SD: Was Florida caught looking ahead to this game when it lost to Arkansas last week? Maybe. But it’s tough to see any way Florida can slow down this LSU offense. This feels like a potential blowout. PICK: LSU
PH: If Jayden Daniels plays, I don’t see a way for Florida to keep things close, and Brian Kelly said Thursday he expects the QB to pass protocol. That provides some reassurance, and it’s likely the Tigers are too deep offensively – with or without Daniels. PICK: LSU
DP: LSU rolls. PICK: LSU
ES: LSU will spoil Billy Napier’s return to Louisiana in blowout fashion. Neither team is playing for much right now, but I fear Arkansas may have a strong impact on these Gators. PICK: LSU
No. 24 North Carolina (-14.5) vs. Duke
SD: I don’t know how Duke keeps winning games without Riley Leonard. Duke’s defense, once thought of as dominant, hasn’t even been good on a down-to-down basis — it ranks in just the 30th percentile nationally in defensive success rate. Duke’s offense with Grayson Loftis or Henry Belin IV running the show has been horrific — much, much worse than what Carolina’s defense struggled with vs. Virginia and Georgia Tech. If Leonard doesn’t play — and this line is a sign that he won’t — I don’t think Duke can keep things close. PICK: North Carolina
PH: If Riley Leonard doesn’t go, I don’t believe the Blue Devils have a shot. Simple as that. PICK: North Carolina
DP: Duke is teetering. Carolina rolls. PICK: North Carolina
ES: Duke will always be a “what if” story to me and I don’t love rolling with them here, but I will for one reason: This line is being very off for a rivalry matchup in my opinion. I think the Blue Devils can keep it within a few touchdowns based off that alone. PICK: Duke
No. 6 Oregon (-15) vs. USC
SD: In his head coaching career, Lincoln Riley teams are 1-0 against the spread in the game immediately following a change at defensive coordinator. If that stat seems relatively worthless, it’s because it is. PICK: Oregon
PH: Last week’s loss to Washington seemed to let the air out of these Trojans. Whether realistic or not, the team believed it could sneak into the Playoff if they ran the table. Without that to play for, I’m not sure USC can rally in Autzen. Meanwhile, Oregon has everything to play for and plenty of doubters to play off of after the latest CFP rankings reveal. PICK: Oregon
DP: Just looking at the body language, I don’t know how the USC team we saw on the field last week picks things up a week later and goes on the road to beat the best team in the Pac-12. Bucky Irving might run for 200 yards on the Trojan defense, or Bo Nix has his Heisman moment. Either way, I don’t believe the coordinator change is going to have an outsized impact because the dismissal of Alex Grinch doesn’t suddenly make USC bigger at the point of attack or a better tackling team. Oregon probably has Greg McElroy’s CFP comments on a loop in the locker room. This could look like the Utah game. PICK: Oregon
ES: I will pick against USC for the remainder of the season as I have the past few weeks. I do not trust these Trojans, with or without Alex Grinch. That’s silly logic from me with that line, I know, but I don’t care PICK: Oregon
