Missouri vs. Georgia is setting up to be one of the biggest games of the weekend in all of college football. 

The Bulldogs will host Mizzou on Saturday with 1st place in the SEC East on the line. The Tigers, who are coming out of their bye week, have not won the SEC East since 2014. Georgia, on the other hand, has won the SEC East in 5 of the last 6 seasons.

Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Missouri vs. Georgia Betting Lines

Spread: Georgia -15 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 55.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these great sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big SEC East matchup.

Betting trends to know for Missouri 

  •  Missouri is 5-3 against the spread this season
    • This includes 5-1 in its last 6 games
  • The over is 6-2 in Mizzou games this season
  • Missouri is 2-0 against the spread on the road this season
  • Missouri is 2-1 against the spread as the underdog this season

Mizzou has consistently beaten the number this season, and it has done so with an elite passing attack. It has also been profitable (albeit in a small sample size) against the spread on the road and as an underdog. 

Betting trends to know for Georgia

  •  Georgia is 2-5-1 against the spread this season
  • The over is 5-3 in Georgia games this season
  • Georgia is 1-3-1 against the spread at home this season
  • Georgia has been favored in every game so far this season
  • Georgia is 2-1 against the spread when favored by fewer than 20 points

Georgia has been awful so far this season against the spread. It didn’t pick up an ATS win until its victory over Kentucky on Oct. 7. But the last trend on the list might be the most telling one. If the Bulldogs think you’re worthy of their respect, they show up in a big way. In its 2 wins against the spread as a favorite of less than 20 points, Georgia beat the number by 9 points against Florida and by 23.5 points vs. Kentucky.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Missouri strength of schedule: 60th
  • Georgia strength of schedule: 99th

 

  • Missouri  strength of record: 11th
  • Georgia strength of record: 7th

Neither of these programs have really made it to the meat of their schedules yet, but both have done very well to be where they are in the standings. It’s jarring to see Georgia with the 99th-rated schedule in early November, but difficult games are coming. The Bulldogs have the 6th-toughest remaining strength of schedule, per FPI. 

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Missouri rushing offense success rate: 42% (41st percentile)
  • Georgia rushing defense success rate: 39% (70th percentile)

Missouri has the reputation of a pass-heavy offense led by Brady Cook and Luther Burden, but the Tigers do run the ball on over 50% of their plays. Given Georgia’s matchup advantage here (and Mizzou’s lack of efficiency on the ground), I’d expect the Tigers to focus more on the passing game. 

  • Georgia rushing offense success rate: 49% (84th percentile)
  • Missouri rushing defense success rate: 36% (86th percentile)

This side of the running game looks like an even matchup. However, the Tigers have struggled recently vs. competent rushing attacks. They gave up 6.4 yards per carry to LSU and 5.8 yards per rush to Kentucky. Georgia hasn’t punished teams in the running game this season like it normally does, but there could be an opening to do so in this matchup.

Passing Success Rate

  • Missouri passing offense success rate: 52% (96th percentile)
  • Georgia passing defense success rate: 33% (99th percentile)

This is the matchup that will determine whether or not Mizzou can hang around in this game. Cook is efficient and he doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s thrown for over 340 yards in 4 different games this season, including twice vs. SEC opposition. Can he do it vs. the 2-time defending national champions?

Even when Georgia was sleep-walking through the early part of the year (remember it didn’t cover a spread until October), the pass defense was always a major strength. The best passing game the Bulldogs have allowed this season was arguably Graham Mertz’s effort last week — 230 yards and 2 touchdowns on 34 attempts.

  • Georgia passing offense success rate: 55% (98th percentile)
  • Missouri pass defense success rate: 39% (71st percentile)

Georgia will of course be without Brock Bowers in this game, which could somewhat limit its effectiveness through the air. But Carson Beck has been great all season and is coming off of a very efficient outing vs. Florida: 315 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 28 attempts. Missouri’s defense has been great against the pass for much of this year, but it did give up 259 yards and 3 touchdowns on 23 attempts to LSU. There’s a blueprint here for Georgia to have a big edge in this matchup.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Missouri offensive havoc rate: 15% (63rd percentile)
  • Georgia defensive havoc rate: 19% (76th percentile)

Throughout Georgia’s run over the past couple of seasons, the Bulldogs have never been a team that relied on tackles for loss. They finished in the middle of the SEC in TFL per game over the past 2 seasons. But this year, they’re sitting in 11th. They’re in the middle-of-the-pack in takeaways as well. There’s probably a positive regression coming for Georgia’s havoc rate given the amount of talent it has on defense.

  • Missouri defensive havoc rate: 19% (80th percentile)
  • Georgia offensive havoc rate: 13% (89th percentile)

If Missouri is going to hang around in this game, it’s going to need to make some big plays on the defensive side of the ball. Perhaps the Tigers will start to get some fumble luck in this game. So far this season, they’ve recovered just 1 out of a possible 10 fumbles from their opponents.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Missouri points scored per opportunity: 4.55 (83rd percentile)
  • Georgia points allowed per opportunity: 3.68 (49th percentile)

Missouri has been much more efficient in this area so far this year, which is something that will need to show up in this game if the Tigers want to pull off the upset. Mizzou has scored on 34 of its 35 red zone trips this season, which leads the SEC. 

Georgia’s defense is mediocre at preventing conversions, but the Bulldogs counter that lack of quality with by limiting the volume of chances. Georgia’s defense has only faced 17 red zone possessions this year, which is tied for the best mark in the SEC.

  • Georgia points scored per opportunity: 4.81 (91st percentile)
  • Missouri points allowed per opportunity: 4.15 (26th percentile)

This is a pretty big mismatch in favor of Georgia. Perhaps the Bulldogs won’t be quite as efficient in their scoring chances without Bowers in the lineup, but this discrepancy doesn’t exactly bode well for Missouri’s upset hopes. 

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Missouri offense: 16th
  • Missouri defense: 35th
  • Missouri special teams: 89th 

 

  • Georgia offense: 8th
  • Georgia defense: 22nd
  • Georgia special teams: 94th 

ESPN SP+ 

  • Missouri offense: 20th
  • Missouri defense: 27th
  • Missouri special teams: 93rd 

 

  • Georgia offense: 6th
  • Georgia defense: 5th
  • Georgia special teams: 13th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.