It’s harder than you think.

We spend 8 months talking about which teams are going to be the best, only to then basically scrap that for a specific day. Calling upsets is always met with resistance, and understandably so. If it were obvious, it wouldn’t be an upset.

Putting together the Crystal Ball series, which predicts every game involving an SEC team in 2022, I found myself wanting to pick a decent amount of chaos. “Chaos” isn’t saying Vandy will beat Alabama. Logic is needed, at least to a certain extent.

Last year in this column, I actually nailed my 3 biggest upsets. Stunning, I know. I had:

  • 3. Mizzou beats Florida
  • 2. Arkansas beats A&M
  • 1. A&M beats Alabama

Not too shabby, right? Never mind the fact that I totally flipped on my A&M upset of Alabama the week of the game. I did, however, go 6-4 with those picks.

In other words, what you’re about to read is gospel and you should blindly agree with my top 10 upsets involving SEC teams in 2022:

10. Mizzou beats Kansas State

This would be a pretty significant upset considering what Kansas State does well (run the ball with Deuce Vaughn) and what Mizzou didn’t do well in 2021 (stop the run in any capacity). So what fuels Mizzou? Turnovers. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez inexplicably goes after Kris Abrams-Draine, who makes him pay twice, once with a pick-6. On a day in which Mizzou’s offense is held in check and out-gained significantly, it finds a way to win by cashing in on those red-zone opportunities and playing a bend-don’t-break defense. Somehow, Mizzou takes down its former Big 12 foe.

9. Kentucky beats Florida

Why is this an upset if Kentucky is picked to finish ahead of Florida? It’s been 45 years since Kentucky beat Florida in consecutive years. In 2022, that’s exactly what happens. Why? And how could Florida start 0-2 in The Swamp when it hasn’t lost consecutive home games in 5 years? Unlike last year when a blocked field goal bailed out an otherwise ineffective Kentucky passing game, this time, Will Levis rises to the occasion. Two rushing scores and 2 passing scores (1 to true freshman Dane Key) put Florida in an early hole that it can’t quite dig itself out of. Zion Childress picks off an Anthony Richardson pass late to halt Florida’s comeback attempt.

8. South Carolina beats Florida

A week after a massive victory in College Station (more on that in a minute), Florida doesn’t handle success the way Billy Napier hoped against an improving South Carolina squad. Spencer Rattler gets too much time to operate and he finds Jaheim Bell and Josh Vann downfield on several occasions. Florida doesn’t lay down like it did in that blowout in Columbia last year, but again in an obvious throwing situation late, Anthony Richardson picks on someone he shouldn’t. Cam Smith, that is. Shane Beamer locks up his first big road win to date to clinch bowl eligibility.

7. Mizzou beats Kentucky

Wait, what? Yep. Eli Drinkwitz always has at least 1 Toby Keith game. It’s his “how do you like me now?” game. It’s always at home as an underdog, and it’s always late in the season. That comes in a sleepy noon game against Kentucky. A week after the Kentucky offense clicked on all cylinders, it struggles to string together scoring drives. Luther Burden’s breakout moment comes by way of a 50-50 ball that he snatches for a long touchdown to put Kentucky on upset alert. Just like in UK’s loss to the Vols, the comeback bid comes up short. Drinkwitz earns his best win of 2022.

6. MSU beats Ole Miss

I could give you the Xs and Os breakdown and talk about why I think MSU will force the Ole Miss passing game to do the heavy lifting and why that gives me some pause. Or I could just say that I don’t think Mike Leach is going to start 0-3 in Egg Bowls. That’d be an awfully tough thing to stomach considering how much personnel turnover Ole Miss is dealing with. Will Rogers locks into a rhythm early and delivers Leach his first Egg Bowl victory.

5. MSU beats LSU

On one hand, LSU’s first SEC game of the Brian Kelly era should yield a raucous atmosphere. BJ Ojulari and Ali Gaye should have a nice advantage off the edge, too. But Will Rogers, similar to his showing at Auburn last year, puts on his cape and leads MSU back after a slow start. MSU’s stuffs LSU’s ground game, forcing a slew of 3-and-outs late. A 2-touchdown LSU lead turns into a frustrating reminder for the home crowd that it’ll take 60 minutes to win any SEC West game in 2022.

4. South Carolina beats Tennessee

In a battle of red-hot teams that are clicking on all cylinders with the passing game, yeah, South Carolina’s November mojo continues. Hendon Hooker and Spencer Rattler go back and forth in a game that has plenty of NFL eyes on it. But the difference is Hooker is asked a little too much to bail out the Vols on the road. A raucous South Carolina crowd fuels a couple of late defensive stands. Jordan Burch and Jordan Strachan both get in the backfield to force key stops. The Gamecocks close out the home slate with their most impressive win at Williams-Brice of the Shane Beamer era.

3. LSU beats A&M

I get the feeling that an LSU team with nothing to lose will play with its hair on fire in College Station. I don’t know who’ll be starting at quarterback for either side. But this is a game where LSU’s pass-catchers shine. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas put pressure on the A&M secondary, which doesn’t get a whole lot of help from its young defensive line. Instead of the Aggies winning and having a chance at a New Year’s 6 bowl, LSU pulls off the upset for the second consecutive year.

2. Florida beats A&M

If you cannot force Anthony Richardson into some bad decisions, he’s going to make you pay. That’s exactly what happens in what turns out to be a frustrating letdown for A&M and a monumental lift for the visiting Gators. After an emotional victory against Ole Miss, we watch A&M’s offense stall at too many key moments. Rashad Torrence picks off a pair of A&M passes and takes one of them back to the house. Billy Napier gets his biggest win to date.

1. Tennessee beats Georgia

I know, I know. Tennessee is 4-35 against Alabama, Florida and Georgia in the post-Phil Fulmer era. That includes 16 consecutive losses to them, 5 of which came vs. UGA. So why is this time different? Tennessee’s offense. The Vols have the formula to put pressure on the UGA defense. Hendon Hooker attacks downfield with Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt, and that young UGA defensive line can’t get pressure with 4 against a Tennessee offensive line that returns 4 starters. Josh Heupel’s offense stretches the field with pace and balance. UGA can’t adjust until it’s too late. Stetson Bennett, even against a porous Vols defense, can’t quite rally the troops back late facing obvious throwing situations. Tennessee pulls off the upset of the year in the SEC.