It’s fascinating.

Every year, I look forward to Bill Connelly’s percentage of returning production rankings. I don’t want to go so far as to say that it’s like Christmas morning, but for me, it is instantly clicked on, bookmarked, studied and then referenced throughout the offseason.

It’s not “who will be good and who will be bad.” The percentage of returning production metric outlines expected regression vs. expected improvement. The more returning production, the more likely improvement is.

Take 2023 Mizzou. The Tigers were No. 2 in the August version of percentage of returning production. We know how that turned out. The Tigers improved by 5 victories and had one of their best seasons in school history. In fact, Kansas (1), Mizzou (2), Florida State (3) and Michigan (4) all improved by multiple games.

Granted, being near the bottom doesn’t mean that a season is destined for the toilet. Alabama improved by a game even though it ranked No. 122 in percentage of returning production heading into 2023. It just sets the expectation for regression vs. progression.

Connelly has tweaked the metric to account for positional value and transfer portal additions. It’s not just “who has the most starters” back because obviously, returning an All-American quarterback should count for more than returning a starting free safety.

Here’s where each SEC team ranked among the 134 FBS teams:

  • No. 18 Texas A&M
  • No. 25 Texas
  • No. 31 Mizzou
  • No. 32 Florida
  • No. 47 Georgia
  • No. 50 Auburn
  • No. 59 South Carolina
  • No. 60 LSU
  • No. 67 Oklahoma
  • No. 68 Ole Miss
  • No. 76 Vandy
  • No. 94 Tennessee
  • No. 102 Kentucky
  • No. 109 Arkansas
  • No. 115 Alabama
  • No. 122 Mississippi State

Here are 5 takeaways from that:

1. Well hello there, Year 1 Mike Elko

Despite the splashy portal losses during the Jimbo Fisher transition with guys like Evan Stewart and Walter Nolen off to new homes, Elko’s done a remarkable job of keeping a good amount of players on the current roster, as well as dipping into the portal. The Aggies signed 13 Power 5 transfers, which will immensely help the Year 1 floor of the program. So will the fact that Conner Weigman stuck around to lead Collin Klein’s version of the A&M offense. Shemar Turner staying for another year was a surprise, and it should greatly benefit incoming Purdue transfer Nic Scourton on the defensive line.

It’s tricky because one might assume Year 1 expectations should be low for a team with some big losses (All-American linebacker Edgerrin Cooper might be the toughest defensive player to replace in the sport). But at the same time, perhaps Elko could take a page out of his 2022 Duke playbook and exceed some low expectations with a roster that’s more proven than many would assume.

2. I’m not crazy for having Texas at No. 2 in my way-too-early rankings

If it sounds like I’ve been trying to convince myself of that aforementioned sentence, it’s because it is. I initially regretted putting the Longhorns at No. 2 because there’s a ton to replace at arguably the 2 biggest strengths of the 2023 squad — receiver and defensive line. But the Longhorns ranking in the top 40 in both percentage offensive returning production (No. 30) and defensive returning production (No. 38) brought me back to why I’m so high on Texas in 2024.

Quinn Ewers is back with 4 starting offensive linemen. That alone is worth getting excited about. Steve Sarkisian made a significant splash in the portal at receiver (Houston’s Matthew Golden & Alabama’s Iron Bowl hero Isaiah Bond) and on the defensive line (Arizona’s Tiaoalii Savea and UTSA’s Trey Moore). Combine that with 3 consecutive top-5 recruiting classes by Sarkisian and yes, there’s plenty to like about a team that ranks No. 25 in percentage of returning production on the heels of its best season in 14 years.

3. That Alabama post-spring portal haul will be significant

Bold prediction? Eh, not so much.

Even with Jalen Milroe back, Alabama is No. 115 in FBS in percentage of returning production (No. 83 on offense, No. 126 on defense). In past years, you could scoff at that because Nick Saban was the great equalizer. With the Kalen DeBoer era beginning, much of his Year 1 success will be determined by nailing transfer portal evaluations. That’s reality when you lose the normal Draft-eligible players from a place like Alabama, as well as the 30-day window losses like Caleb Downs (Ohio State) and Kadyn Proctor (Iowa).

I believe that the receiver room and the defensive back room will undergo the biggest portal transformation. In addition to bringing Germie Bernard with him from Washington, I’d expect Alabama’s post-spring additions to include some bigger-body receivers on the outside. It feels like we should also see some post-spring additions in the secondary, where Alabama will have to find replacements for Kool-Aid McKinstry, Terrion Arnold and the aforementioned Downs.

On the bright side? Malachi Moore and Deontae Lawson should be the alphas of Kane Wommack’s highly scrutinized Year 1 defense.

4. If not now, then when for a Brent Venables defense at Oklahoma?

That sounds knee-jerk based on the fact that Venables is only 2 seasons deep in Norman, but consider this: So far, he has yet to have a top-40 defense at Oklahoma. Sure, that was the Achilles’ heel throughout the Lincoln Riley era, but Venables was supposed to right that wrong. In 2024, his defense will rank No. 8 in FBS with 79% of last year’s defensive production back.

Improvement should’ve been expected the moment that Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman announced that they were running it back for 2024. A group that struggled down the stretch — both in the regular season and in the bowl game against Arizona — should have much more experience up front than what Venables had in his first 2 seasons in Norman. It wasn’t that long ago that Venables had an active streak of 8 consecutive years with top-30 defenses in rushing yards/carry. This feels like an ideal time to get back to that.

5. What’s the one unit I’ll scoff at the percentage of returning production? The Tennessee offense

I know that the Vols are ranked No. 107 in percentage of offensive returning production. Don’t care. I’m still projecting improvement. Why? Like, besides the fact that Josh Heupel had nothing but top-8 scoring offenses in his first 5 seasons as a head coach until that streak ended in 2023? OK, I believe Nico Iamaleava is a significant upgrade over Joe Milton.

I also believe this offense won’t be nearly as limited as it felt like it was throughout 2023, especially in the passing game, where a healthy Bru McCoy returns alongside Squirrel White and leading Tulane receiver Chris Brazzell II. Even if Dont’e Thornton never lives up to his pre-2023 hype and if it’s a bit touch and go for 5-star freshman receiver Mike Matthews, there’s a ton to like. With an offensive line that should still have plenty of experience and a backfield with breakout candidate Dylan Sampson, there’s a lot to like.

If Tennessee doesn’t end the year with an offense that takes a step forward after it averaged 27.9 points per game vs. Power 5 competition, I’d be stunned.