I’m not saying that there will only be 10 SEC players selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

History tells us that there’s a decent chance that the SEC will exceed that; 5 times in the past 10 years, the SEC had more than 10 first-round picks.

Here’s the breakdown of SEC players selected in Round 1 by year in the past decade:

  • 2014 — 11
  • 2015 — 7
  • 2016 — 8
  • 2017 — 12
  • 2018 — 10
  • 2019 — 9
  • 2020 — 15
  • 2021 — 12
  • 2022 — 12
  • 2023 — 9
  • 2024 — TBD

If you did some quick math, you know that averaged out to about 10.5 Round 1 selections per year. Hence, why I decided to do a post-NFL Combine breakdown of the 10 SEC players who I believe will come off the board in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft:

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU QB

Nope, it doesn’t matter that he chose not to throw or run the 40. He had a Heisman Trophy season after 5 years of starting at the Power 5 level, the last 2 of which were against the toughest competition in the sport. The better question with Daniels is whether he’ll be picked at No. 2 overall. Whether that’s the Washington Commanders keeping the pick or someone else moving up to get that No. 2 spot, it’s hard to find a mock without Daniels going off the board at No. 2 or No. 3.

2. Malik Nabers, LSU WR

Nabers is in a similar spot as his LSU quarterback. He’s not expected to be the first player at his position selected, but there’s a good discussion to be had if he’s the second. Nabers and Rome Odunze are both popular top-10 picks in mocks. Nabers might not have necessarily improved his Draft stock publicly by declining measurements and workouts in Indianapolis, but like Daniels, those conversations could change post-LSU Pro Day. A wildly productive, interchangeable wideout like Nabers is a safe bet to come off the board in the front half of the NFL Draft.

3. Dallas Turner, Alabama Edge

Did he evolve into the second coming of Will Anderson? Not quite, which is why Turner isn’t expected to be a top-5 pick. But is he still an ideal edge rusher with plenty of impressive tape? Absolutely. Turner is in a favorable spot in a Draft that lacks both top-end pass-rushers and obvious top-5 defensive prospects. He’s got a shot to become the first defensive player off the board. That would mark the 4th consecutive year that the SEC accomplished that feat. Running a 4.46-second 40-yard dash and jumping 40.5 inches at 247 pounds only helped that argument.

4. Brock Bowers, Georgia TE

If Bowers isn’t selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, it’ll be because they banned the tight end position or we found out that he drinks orange juice after brushing his teeth. Even if both of those things happened, there’s no way that Bowers should fall out of the top 10, much less out of the first round altogether. If your argument is “but Kyle Pitts,” you’re telling on yourself that you haven’t watched Bowers play the position.

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5. JC Latham, Alabama OT

Latham would be higher on this list if he were projected as a left tackle, but still, he has the tools to anchor an NFL offensive line from the right side. His skill-set profiles as an early-round pick even if he doesn’t eventually kick to the left tackle spot (he believes he can). We’re no longer living in a world where it’s just about protecting a blind side. Getting guys who can pass-protect for mobile quarterbacks is no small feat, and Latham is well-versed at that having blocked for Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. The 340-pound behemoth shouldn’t have to wait long to hear his name called.

6. Terrion Arnold, Alabama CB

Arnold was always going to crush the pre-Draft process. He had a better all-around year on the field than the more decorated Kool-Aid McKinstry. It’s not just the 5 interceptions and 12 pass breakups. Arnold can step into the NFL and immediately cover on the outside, but his versatility as an elite run-defender (he was PFF’s No. 3 FBS corner against the run) and slot corner projects well to the modern game. He might not be 6-3, 200 pounds, with a 4.3-second 40, but seeing how he operates, how can you not believe in Arnold succeeding at the next level?

7. Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama CB

It’s too bad that McKinstry has a foot injury and couldn’t participate in the NFL Combine. He would’ve been set up for success. Instead, he’ll now have to shake health issues if he wants to come off the board in the first half of the first round, which is where he was projected throughout the last 11 months. The good news is that McKinstry has a chance to overcome those doubts at Alabama’s Pro Day, where he’s expected to be healthy. As long as he doesn’t have any setbacks, his ability to lock down elite outside receivers should still make him a Day 1 guy. He just might hear his aforementioned teammate come off the board first.

8. Brian Thomas Jr., LSU WR

This is going to sound like a knock on Thomas, but I promise that it’s not. If this is 2004, he’s a top-7 pick like Roy Williams. To put up the numbers that Thomas did — the guy led the nation in receiving touchdowns — and look the part in shorts as a 6-3, 209-pound receiver is nothing short of ridiculous. The modern knock on him will be versatility and route-running. His top-end speed is insane (he ran a 4.33-second 40), but the route tree and extremely favorable surroundings will likely make Thomas more of a mid- or late-first-rounder in 2024. Still, though. It’s hard to imagine him slipping past Round 1 with how receiver-needy the sport has become.

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9. Amarius Mims, Georgia OT

I’ve long had a theory that there’s something in the water in Georgia. Like, the entire state. How UGA gets these human beings is beyond me. Mims clocked a 5.07-second 40-yard dash at 6-8, 340 pounds. Granted, he got hurt on his second attempt, which was fitting for how his pre-NFL Draft season played out at UGA. Assuming the injury was minor, Mims still projects as one of the first tackles to come off the board. The former 5-star recruit’s biggest knock will be reps. Injuries limited him to just 8 career starts. But there’ll be a Round 1 market for an NFL-ready pass protector on the outside.

10. Darius Robinson, Mizzou DL

I could’ve gone with A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter or even Robinson’s teammate CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. here, but let’s go with the defensive lineman who got better and better at Mizzou. He’s got the ability to play on the edge or the interior having done both at Mizzou. At 6-5, 285 pounds, he ran a sub-5 40 and recorded a 35-inch vertical. That matched what Robinson showed during his pre-Draft season when he played 40-plus snaps in 9 of his 12 games and he recorded 14 tackles for loss (No. 4 in SEC). While he’s more of a work in progress as a next-level pass-rusher, he can be a Day 1 run-stuffer. He’s got all the makings to be the first Mizzou player selected in Round 1 since Charles Harris in 2017.