It’s an inexact science to rank teams at this point of the season. I fully acknowledge that.

What the College Football Playoff selection committee is tasked with doing isn’t brain surgery, but it is a tricky and mostly subjective exercise. There’s a human factor. The “eye test” is impossible to completely diminish.

But that’s not to say we can’t have some sort of a process to determine these rankings, the first set of which will be released at 7 pm Tuesday night.

For my own sanity, what I’ve found to be most helpful is doing a weekly breakdown of 3 categories among Power 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses (there are currently 13 of those):

  • Total victories vs. Power 5 teams with a winning record
  • Total victories vs. the current AP Top 10
  • Average scoring margin against Power 5 competition

Do I believe that the selection committee just looks at those 3 metrics? No, but I do believe they spend far less time on “quality of loss” than “quality of wins,” which is still something that many haven’t processed in Year 10 of this system.

It’s why last year, it was maddening that some argued Alabama deserved a shot as a 2-loss team because “the losses came down to the final play.” Meanwhile, that crowd refused to acknowledge that the best Tide win was against … a 4-loss team? The selection committee acknowledged that, as it should’ve.

So when I do these weekly projections of how I believe the selection committee will rank the top 10 each Tuesday, I lean on those metrics, though admittedly, there’s a human element. Also, it’s worth noting that these aren’t necessarily my rankings. They are what I think the selection committee will rank.

Having said that, here’s how I believe the first top 10 of the Playoff ranking will look on Tuesday night:

10. Penn State

Yes, the loss was a defensive struggle at Ohio State. It’s probably the No. 1 thing on Penn State’s résumé, which has a 31-0 win against Iowa and not a whole lot else. Two victories against Power 5 teams with a winning record won’t prompt the selection committee to move James Franklin’s squad very deep into that top 10.

9. Alabama

The Texas loss will continue to limit the Tide’s upside in the ranking, though that ceiling changes if the Longhorns suffer a 2nd loss. Also limiting Alabama at this stage is an +8.3 average scoring margin against Power 5 competition. Among the 13 Power 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, that’s dead last. The good news for Alabama is that it undeniably has a Playoff path with LSU coming up this weekend and possibly unbeaten Georgia if both teams can reach the SEC Championship. The bad news for Alabama is that the margin for error is gone.

8. Texas

Let’s not do the thing where we spend a ton of time debating whether Quinn Ewers’ injury should impact Texas’ ranking. It doesn’t, and it shouldn’t. This will come down to whether the Longhorns can overcome that and run the table. The Alabama win and the Oklahoma loss — both were away from home — could sandwich the Longhorns in the back half of the top 10. By the way, this will mark Texas’ first ranking inside the top 10 of the Playoff poll. Having Playoff hopes alive heading into November is as big of a victory as the Longhorns could’ve asked for.

7. Oklahoma

If your argument for why Oklahoma should be ranked below Texas is “the Sooners just lost to Kansas,” miss me with that. Kansas is a 6-2 team. Also, a neutral-site head-to-head win for a pair of teams with the same record should be the ultimate tiebreaker, despite what the latest AP Poll would suggest. Oklahoma is 1 of 5 teams in America with a win over a current AP Top 10 team, and it’s 1 of 2 teams with such a win away from home. Who’s the other? Texas at Alabama. While the Sooners’ résumé lacks a bit of depth and style points (only +9.0/game vs. Power 5 competition), the selection committee can default to that all-important result in the Cotton Bowl to break the tie.

6. Oregon

It’s not a slam dunk that Oregon is the top-ranked 1-loss team just because of the close loss at Washington. I do think it’s worth noting that the blowout win at Utah is the Ducks’ lone victory against a Power 5 team with a winning record. But what’ll tip the scales is Oregon has been mostly dominant against Power 5 competition. Among those 13 aforementioned Power 5 teams with 1 or fewer losses, only Michigan has a better average scoring margin against P5 teams. The Ducks passed the eye test so far, and while lopsided wins against Colorado and Washington State haven’t aged as well as they probably would’ve hoped, it’s still ranked in the top 15 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

5. Washington

It feels like it’ll be Washington or Florida State for this spot as the lowest-ranked Power 5 unbeaten team. Some will treat that as a slap in the face because both have a major résumé win. But Washington is slightly behind in the selection committee’s eyes after a pair of head-scratching nail-biters against a pair of Pac-12 cellar dwellers. That average scoring margin against Power 5 competition took a severe hit (now at +14.7/game) and the Huskies only have 2 victories against Power 5 teams with a winning record. Fortunately for Washington, that schedule sees 3 AP Top 25 teams in the next 3 weeks, and Oregon could be waiting for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. If the Huskies are legit, they won’t have any campaigning to do to finish in the top 4.

4. Florida State

Remember when we spent all that time debating FSU’s close win against hopeless Boston College? Since that game, the Noles beat Clemson in Death Valley and then ripped off 4 consecutive wins by 3 scores. Oh, and while Boston College is by no means a world-beater, it’s still a 5-3 team riding a 4-game winning streak. FSU also has the 21-point, neutral-site LSU win, which is still one of the most impressive wins of the year because of how dominant FSU was in the second half. It helps that LSU has the nation’s No. 1 offense at 47 points per game, and it hit half of its season average in that game. Mike Norvell’s squad will benefit from a slight touch of recency bias in the Washington side-by-side debate, but it’s plenty worthy of a top-4 spot.

3. Michigan

Let me stop you right there. I know what you’re thinking. Ranking Michigan outside of the top 2 wouldn’t have anything to do with the NCAA investigation, and it would have everything to do with the fact that its best win is at 5-3 Minnesota. The average scoring margin against Power 5 competition (+39.6) is hard to take seriously when it has yet to face a team ranked inside the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup. While the Wolverines have done everything that one would hope with that weak schedule, it still limits the current résumé. Until the Wolverines play Penn State in a couple of weeks, it’s hard to sell it as a top-2 Playoff team.

2. Georgia

Wait, what? No Georgia at No. 1? How could I not project the 2-time defending champs for the top spot after they blew out Florida for their 25th consecutive win? Well, that’s Georgia’s best win to date. Kentucky is the lone team that was ranked inside the AP Top 25 at the time of the matchup, though the Cats are now at 5-3. While this current 4-game stretch is among the most difficult in the country — each of the next 3 opponents is between No. 11-19 in the AP Poll — it’s still about the résumé. Remember last year, Tennessee was ranked No. 1 in that first Playoff poll ahead of Georgia. It didn’t matter that the Vols hadn’t beaten UGA in 6 years. At the time, Tennessee had 5 wins against teams who were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the home of the matchup, including that all-important Alabama win. Georgia might’ve had the upper hand on Ohio State last year, but something tells me that Buckeye résumé will get the benefit of the doubt.

1. Ohio State

Before you tell me this is all for clicks, tell me this: How many teams in America have wins over 2 teams that are currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll? It’s 1, and it’s Ohio State.

At this point of the season, I believe the selection committee will value that over the fact that the Buckeyes lost 2 straight to Michigan. Ohio State also has 4 victories against Power 5 teams with a winning record. Among those 13 Power 5 contenders, only Louisville can match that. But unlike Louisville, Ohio State doesn’t have a 3-score loss to a 2-win Pitt team on its résumé. It has 2 top-tier wins along with a respectable +16.5 average scoring margin against Power 5 competition. Despite that No. 3 ranking in the AP Poll, the Buckeyes will open the Playoff Poll as the top dog.

Pun intended.