You’ve probably heard by now, but the SEC is supposed to win in bowl games. If SEC teams lose, lots of excuses come out: We were tired. They stole our signals. We didn’t care about the game.

This year, there’s no excuse. The SEC West went 2-5 in bowl games last season, and Vegas favors the conference in nine of the 10 games this go-round.

A poor showing would be open season for those who dislike the SEC football brand.

With that backdrop, let’s look at the SEC teams based on how strong of a bet they are to win, from safest to shakiest:

1. Arkansas vs. Kansas State, Liberty Bowl: There’s a strong argument to be made that the Wildcats are the worst Power 5 team in this year’s bowl games. Normally stout on defense, this year’s Kansas State group is mediocre. And the team’s dual-threat quarterback isn’t much of a threat at all. KSU had to scrape into bowl eligibility, mostly by stacking up wins against a weak non-conference schedule and the Big 12 bottom feeders. Bret Bielema and Arkansas could repeat last year’s bowl romp against Texas.

2. Alabama vs. Michigan State, Cotton Bowl: If you grabbed under the posted Vegas total of 49.5 in a few spots when the gambling line first opened, congratulations. These are two of the most disciplined defenses in all of college football. And each team’s offensive strength — the Tide’s running game with Derrick Henry and the Spartans’ offensive line — matches up with the strength of the opposing unit. Don’t expect a ton from Alabama’s offense, which needs Jake Coker to avoid mistakes. But Michigan State just shouldn’t be able to move the ball with regularity.

3. Tennessee vs. Northwestern, Outback Bowl: The Wildcats are the higher-ranked team and did beat Pac-12 champion Stanford early in the season. Tennessee can’t make stupid mistakes with the game on the line, or else the Vols could find themselves suffering from another close second-half loss. Still, UT should field a defense strong enough to ground Northwestern. Coach Butch Jones’ team can keep the ball on the ground, grab a lead and then lean on the Wildcats.

4. Mississippi State vs. North Carolina State, Belk Bowl: This is Dak Prescott’s last game with the Bulldogs. This two-year run arguably is the best in school history. A win here would mean 19 in those two years. Both of these teams took care of business against lesser teams and didn’t fare well against legitimate top 25 competition. North Carolina State quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a Florida transfer, will be looking for one final opportunity to stick it to the SEC. Still, in many ways, the real work begins now for coach Dan Mullen and that staff. It feels like a more important game for Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs defensive line should cause problems for the Wolfpack.

5. LSU vs. Texas Tech, Texas Bowl: The Red Raiders are attempting to knock off two SEC West teams in the same season. Coach Kliff Kingsbury will be relentless in attacking the LSU secondary, which had a down year by Tigers standards. But Texas Tech’s run defense is among the worst in FBS. Whether or not this is Cam Cameron’s last game as LSU’s offensive coordinator, I wouldn’t expect the team to change its approach on that side of the ball at least until next fall. Leonard Fournette will get a chance to break bowl records in this one, and if LSU can snag a lead, it will be tough for the Red Raiders.

6. Auburn vs. Memphis, Birmingham Bowl: Both Tigers are going through a coaching transition. Memphis just replaced head coach Justin Fuente, who left for Virginia Tech. Auburn has yet to officially replace defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Neither team is happy to be here, as Auburn was the media’s preseason SEC favorite, and Memphis at one point looked like a great candidate to represent the Group of 5 in the New Year’s Six bowls. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if this game gets sloppy. But Auburn defensive end Carl Lawson and Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch are worth watching closely, and NFL scouts will be all over this one. Coach Gus Malzahn should be very, very motivated to churn out a better offensive performance.

7. Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State, Sugar Bowl: Vegas is giving the Cowboys 7 points in this game, and that’s way too many. First, the Rebels have three players projected as potential top 10 picks in the NFL draft, and several others making stay or go decisions (Chad Kelly, Evan Engram, Tony Conner). Second, Oklahoma State is a 10-win team that averages 41.2 points per game. Mason Rudolph may be the best quarterback that the average SEC fan hasn’t seen before. The Cowboys could be a preseason top 10 team entering next year if they win here. Emmanuel Ogbah is one of the best pass rushers in the country. This game is more of a tossup in my mind, as Ole Miss should be very motivated to erase last year’s bowl debacle against TCU.

8. Texas A&M vs. Louisville, Music City Bowl: When Kyle Allen announced his intention to transfer, the Vegas line ticked down slightly. Texas A&M now is a 1.5-point favorite. Does anyone feel comfortable risking anything significant on a bet involving these two teams in a meaningless bowl? Louisville’s defense has been pretty good. The Cardinals offense? Very average. But shouldn’t coach Bobby Petrino be able to exploit a few holes in the Aggies’ defensive personnel, given time to prepare?

9. Georgia vs. Penn State, TaxSlayer Bowl: The Nittany Lions have struggled against teams that are good up front, especially on defense. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg may be an NFL prospect, but that’s based more on his physical potential at this point. But, Georgia lost coach Mark Richt and both its coordinators. Running back Nick Chubb remains out.

10. Florida vs. Michigan, Citrus Bowl: The Gators are the only SEC underdog entering bowl season. If Treon Harris and Florida’s offensive line can’t find a way to get better in less than a month, this one will be a repeat of games against Florida State and Alabama. The Wolverines allowed 14 points — total — during a five-game stretch early in the season.