SEC, Big Ten influence to grow larger with new CFP revenue distribution model

The gap between the SEC and Big Ten and the rest of the conferences in FBS grew larger with this latest round of conference realignment. Under the reported terms of a new 6-year television contract extension with ESPN for the rights to the College Football Playoff, that gap will grow a little more.

According to Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger, the SEC and Big Ten will each receive 29% of the revenue distributed by the CFP under a new revenue model. The ACC will receive 17.1% and the Big 12 will get 14.7%. The remaining roughly 10% of revenue will be shared between Notre Dame and the rest of the 64 Group of 5 schools.

Numbers reported by ESPN in January revealed that the new extension — through the 2031 Playoff — will pay the CFP roughly 3 times the amount that was distributed for the 4-team version of the CFP. While there were concessions elsewhere to get a new deal done, the money that will get routed to the top 2 leagues is a significant development.

Under the previous setup, the 5 so-called Power leagues shared 80% of the CFP revenue equally among themselves.

The new-look Big Ten and the powered-up SEC had historically dominated the 4 slots in the field. Twenty-one of the 40 selected CFP teams belonged to the 2 leagues. Future conference members had 8 other Playoff bids.

Both leagues stand to be even more prevalent in a 12- or 14-team field. They represent the top 8 preseason betting favorites to win the 2024 national championship. Georgia has the shortest odds across most of the best betting apps. Ohio State, Texas, and Oregon are all right there as well. Nothing is changing anytime soon. While the Big Ten added USC and Oregon, the Big 12 added Colorado and Arizona State; the ACC added Cal and Stanford.

Modifying the revenue distribution was a significant sticking point in the negotiating process.

With the new agreement, the SEC and Big Ten will share a combined 58% of the CFP’s base distribution while the ACC and Big 12 share a combined 32%.

The difference between the two sets of conferences could be more than $300 million.

No school is expected to earn less from the new CFP distribution model than it did before due to the boon in overall payouts from ESPN. But each SEC school is expected to bring home between $21 million and $23 million annually from the Playoff. ACC and Big 12 schools are set to get between $12 million and $14 million.

In 2023, the SEC brought in $853 million in revenue and distributed more than $51 million each to its member schools. The ACC gave $39.5 million to its members during the 2021-22 season, some $10 million less than what SEC schools got. The gap between the two is expected to explode in upcoming seasons.

The ACC is stuck in a TV deal with ESPN that lasts through the 2036 season, providing no mechanism to close the gap with the SEC, which will welcome OU and Texas in 2024 and begin a new exclusive TV deal with ESPN.

College football has always been an arms race where resource-rich schools flourish. Who has the best facilities? Which program can provide the largest salary pool for assistants and the best support staff? Which programs can invest in recruiting departments?

With the transfer portal exploding and NIL expanding, NIL investment and recruiting budgets will make or break teams.

With the SEC and the Big Ten each adding another $10 million to the gap between them and the rest of the competition, the influence will grow.

And it’s already huge.

Your move, Florida State.