The 2023 season will be a year in transition for the SEC at the most important position in sports. Just 7 of the SEC’s 14 (so long, farewell, 14, we hardly knew ye) programs return a quarterback who started more than 5 games in 2023, and this season marks the first in 5 where the SEC has lacked a preseason All-American at the position.

While the SEC is a line-of-scrimmage league, and the conference’s run of unparalleled dominance has everything to do with that reality, it has also been a league of transcendental talent and legends at quarterback.

From Tim Tebow to Cam Newton to Bryce Young, the best conference in America has packed plenty of punch at a position made for stars.

Don’t confuse “transition” with an absence of big-time talent, though. Jayden Daniels, KJ Jefferson and Joe Milton are all electric playmakers, Devin Leary arrives at Kentucky as a former ACC Player of the Year, and Miss State’s Will Rogers is back to shatter school records. The young guns are massive talents, too. In Carson Beck, Georgia will field NFL arm strength and beyond-his-years poise to replace Stetson Bennett IV’s legendary moxie. Vanderbilt’s AJ Swann is attracting NFL scouts to watch a potential early-round Commodores quarterback for the first time since Jay Cutler. And with Hugh Freeze now manning the ship at Auburn and Lane Kiffin on the sideline at Ole Miss, it’s hard to imagine a lack of development being an issue.

Here’s a look at the upside and downside of every QB1 in the SEC, beginning with Alabama.

Note: If no starter has been named, Saturday Down South projects the starter and explains why he should win the job. 

Alabama: Tyler Buchner

Upside: SEC champion. Buchner is athletic, but it’s his understanding of new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees’ system that should make him the starter on the Capstone. No, Buchner didn’t overwhelm in South Bend. But he also was injured and missed most of last season after having a marvelous fall camp against a terrific Notre Dame defense. He knows what Rees expects, and he’s the most versatile guy in the room, a better thrower than Jalen Milroe and a better runner and pocket passer than Ty Simpson. With more talent around him than he had in South Bend, Buchner can use a fresh start to become an SEC Championship-caliber quarterback.

Downside: Benched before league play. Just because Nick Saban wanted to bring in a quarterback after the spring, and Buchner was the guy he brought, doesn’t mean that the light bulb will suddenly click for a quarterback who hasn’t played much college football. Buchner threw 3 interceptions in the Gator Bowl against South Carolina, the only SEC defense he has played, and he did that despite a brilliant run game at Notre Dame that ranked 15th nationally in success rate. There’s not much time between now and the Texas game on Sept. 9, and 1 start might not be enough for Buchner to work out all the kinks and get comfortable, even if he knows Rees’ system.

Arkansas: KJ Jefferson

Upside: 1st- or 2nd-team All-SEC. Jefferson graded out as the 7th-best quarterback in the country last season, behind only Young among SEC quarterbacks, per PFF. He returns to Arkansas with a marvelous run game led by Raheim Sanders. He’s also in his 3rd year as a starting quarterback, when many college quarterbacks have made the leap from good to great. He played his best football in Arkansas’ final 3 games last year, accounting for 10 touchdowns (7 passing, 3 running) and guiding the Hogs to wins in the Liberty Bowl and over No. 14 Ole Miss.

Downside: Too many new faces hold Jefferson back. Sam Pittman has produced 7 1st-round Draft picks on the offensive line since 2013, so the rebuilt front shouldn’t be a huge issue for either the run game or Jefferson. But Arkansas lost its top 4 producers in the passing game at wide receiver, and the transfer portal haul wasn’t as inspiring as the group that just left, which featured Matt Landers (formerly of Georgia) and Jadon Haselwood (Oklahoma). If the receivers don’t come together, it won’t matter how improved Jefferson is as a complete quarterback.

Auburn: Payton Thorne

Upside: 3,000 yards and a bowl game. Freeze loves what he sees from Thorne, which should count for something when you evaluate the Michigan State transfer. The next step is for Thorne to believe in himself again and return to the form that saw him throw for 3,240 yards with 27 touchdowns as a 1st-year starter in 2021. A year ago, things fell off but not quite apart, with his TD-INT ratio down to 19-11 and his yards per attempt down a full 1.4 yards. Thorne was a dual-threat kid as a recruit, and he’s in a system that rewards that, even if it is different from what he got used to at Michigan State. With 1 of the nation’s best quarterback gurus in Freeze by his side, there’s no reason Thorne can’t recapture the magic that helped Michigan State go 11-2 with a win over Michigan in 2021.

Downside: It’s Robby Ashford’s gig by October. Auburn’s schedule starts with cupcake city in UMass, which will help Thorne get his feet wet. A trip out west to play a bad Cal team won’t challenge Auburn, either, nor will Samford on the Plains. But the next 2 games — at Texas A&M and a way-too-early edition of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry — could be make or break for Thorne. Ashford is capable, and he outplayed Thorne in at least 1 Auburn scrimmage in camp. Holden Geriner made a push for the job, too, and Freeze called him the most talented thrower of the trio. If Thorne doesn’t limit turnovers and show he has grasped the Auburn tempo scheme, he’ll sit.

Florida: Graham Mertz

Upside: 3,000 yards and 8 wins. Mertz a highly coveted recruit, a high 4-star in the 247 composite and the highest-rated quarterback recruit to ever attend Wisconsin. It went beautifully until it didn’t, as Mertz tossed 21 interceptions in 2 years as a starter in Madison and helped Paul Chryst, a respected quarterback guru,  get fired. Sometimes a new start means everything, and Billy Napier is counting on Mertz to be the latest success story as a quarterback who simply changes locations and coaching staffs. Mertz has much better talent around him than he did at Wisconsin, with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. perhaps the SEC’s best 1-2 duo at running back and Florida’s wide receiver room young, but filled with more blue chips (6) in the freshman and sophomore classes alone than he ever had in Madison (3). If Mertz finds the talent that made him such a coveted prep prospect, Florida may have its latest diamond in the rough at quarterback (see Trask, Kyle).

Downside: Mertz is an interception machine and Florida goes 4-8. A brutal schedule means the Gators won’t have much margin for error. They have tremendous talent at running back, but they will need balance — and a lack of turnovers — to avoid a 3rd consecutive losing season in Gainesville. If Mertz doesn’t take better care of the ball, Florida will fail. There’s not anyone behind Mertz, either, except perhaps Max Brown, who has huge arm talent and athleticism but has been limited by an injury in fall camp.

Georgia: Carson Beck

Upside: National champion. Only Anthony Richardson was a more highly regarded quarterback coming out of Florida 4 years ago, and Beck, a more polished passer than Richardson, takes over at a program with the benefit of multiple seasons as a deputy to a national championship-winning legend, Stetson Bennett IV. Beck has played well in limited action, completing 74.3 percent of his passes for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, and while QB1 at Georgia is different, the Dawgs haven’t had a thrower with his talent level since at least Aaron Murray and perhaps longer — no disrespect to Justin Fields intended. Expectations should be high, and Beck, a smart kid who thinks before he speaks and has impressed Kirby Smart with his leadership skills, can deliver on those expectations.

Downside: Growing pains and no College Football Playoff. Georgia lost 9 draft picks in 2021 but managed to repeat anyway. Much of that, of course, had to do with Bennett’s return at quarterback. Whenever Georgia needed him, Bennett delivered. Georgia’s talent is marvelous on the perimeter, Brock Bowers is the nation’s best tight end, and the 1-2 at running back might be the best in the SEC. That either removes pressure from Beck or adds it, depending on your point of view. Being a 1st-year starter in the SEC isn’t for the meek of heart, though, and while Georgia’s schedule isn’t brutal, there are plenty of games where an off day from Beck could make life interesting.

Kentucky: Devin Leary

Upside: All-SEC. Leary arrives in Lexington with All-ACC credentials. The 2022 preseason ACC Player of the Year, Leary threw for 3,500 yards and 35 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions in 2021. He spent last season struggling before missing the 2nd half of the season due to injury. What he never had at NC State is a complementary run game. The Wolfpack ranked no better than 56th in success rate running the ball for Leary, who had to do a whole lot by himself. At Kentucky, the chances are that he has balance — only 1 Mark Stoops Kentucky team has finished outside the top 50 in rushing success rate, and 4 have finished in the top 25. Leary with balance could be frighteningly good.

Downside: He can’t stay healthy. Leary has missed significant time due to injury in both 2020 and 2022, and while he rightly suggests these are tough injuries from “taking 2 bad hits,” he’ll need Kentucky to continue to be solid up front to stay healthy in 2023. The Wildcats finished 13th nationally in sacks allowed a season ago, and 4 starters return, but Leary’s injury history is one of those “see it to believe it” things where he’ll only shake the “injury-prone” label if he plays a full season.

LSU: Jayden Daniels

Upside: Heisman finalist. The learning curve was evident early in 2023 for Daniels, but he’s now a proven commodity surrounded by tremendous talent. Daniels’ best football came after LSU lost 2 games last year, starting with a mesmerizing 393-total-yard, 6-touchdown performance in an LSU win in The Swamp. Daniels has the talent to eclipse 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing, which is the kind of thing that on a great team lands you in New York City for the Heisman ceremony.

Downside: Big-game struggles continue. Daniels looked lost in the SEC Championship, taking 3 sacks, throwing an interception and managing just 202 total yards.  He took 5 sacks in a loss to Tennessee and threw a critical interception in the process. The Tigers looked invincible — and didn’t give Daniels much to do — in the Citrus Bowl rout of Purdue, but that was a preview of the big opener they’ll play on the same field in 2023 against Florida State. A season ago, Daniels and LSU floundered for 3 quarters against the Seminoles on national television before falling just short after a furious rally. Can Daniels play his best in the big moments? SDS thinks so, but we’ll find out quickly in a showdown of Heisman hopefuls with FSU on Sept. 3.

Mississippi State: Will Rogers

Upside: All-SEC. Rogers is a known commodity. He understands the Air Raid offense, and new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay will keep as many of the late, great Mike Leach’s offensive principles in place as he can, as he should. Rogers is already the SEC’s all-time completions leader and State’s all-time leading passer. This year he can shatter more records, and perhaps belatedly get the credit he deserves as one of the best SEC quarterbacks of the 21st century.

Downside: A dropoff and no bowl game. State won 9 games a season ago, including the emotionally charged ReliaQuest Bowl win over Illinois. This season, the Bulldogs play a brutal schedule that includes a daunting September: LSU, at South Carolina and Alabama in succession. While 8 starters return on offense, Rogers tragically doesn’t have Leach calling plays or scouting opponents. The 1st full season with the great Pirate in the Sky and not on the sideline could have a steep learning curve.

Missouri: Brady Cook

Upside: 9 wins and a New Year’s Day bowl game. Cook, who threw for 2,739 yards and 14 touchdowns in guiding Missouri to a bowl game in his 1st full season as a starter, lacks the high school superstar allure of Sam Horn, who may share snaps with Cook in the season opener. But Cook, who was selected as a team captain this week, should be the Missouri starter. He has quality arm strength, takes good care of the football and clearly has the respect of the locker room. Missouri’s soft early schedule (only defending Big 12 champion Kansas State should threaten Missouri in September) should also allow Cook to gain confidence. Nine wins is possible the way the schedule sets  up, but Cook needs to take a step forward for Missouri to accomplish that goal.

Downside: Horn is just better, and Cook hits the portal this winter. Recruiting services get so much right. That’s the not-so-little secret in this sport, and Horn, a consensus 4-star prospect, oozes talent in ways Cook does not. He’s a dual threat with elite arm strength (he’s a baseball player by trade), and he now has had a full year to acclimate to Eli Drinkwitz’s offense. If Cook struggles early in the year and Horn shines in spot duty, Cook’s grip on the job could slip away, even as a team captain.

Ole Miss: Jaxson Dart

Upside: 9 wins and All-SEC mention. Kiffin is a tough guy to figure out. Just when you think you have a read on him, Joey Freshwater goes and tweets — err, X’s — something else, and you have to pause. Last season, Kiffin insisted that the starting gig was wide open, and of course the result of it being wide open was that Luke Altmyer won the starting job … at Illinois this week. Enter Dart, Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard into this vortex. Sanders is capable, and he could benefit from a new start. Howard is uber-talented, but he couldn’t capitalize on that talent at LSU. Dart? He’s a returning SEC starting quarterback who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and rushed for 741 more a season ago who should take a big leap in his 2nd full year as QB1 for 1 of the best quarterback coaches in the sport. Give me Dart and a 9-win Ole Miss team and take me to Vegas.

Downside: Benched after a bad day at Alabama? Kiffin is a tough guy to figure out. Just when you think you have a read on him, he goes and signs Sanders, a 4-year starter from the Big 12, in the transfer portal despite the fact that he’s returning Dart, who accounted for nearly 4,000 yards a season ago. If you think that Kiffin brought Sanders in to never play him — you haven’t watched Kiffin enough. Ole Miss has an intriguing early schedule, with games at Tulane and at Alabama slated for September. If Dart struggles in 1 or both, the Rebels may switch quarterbacks before they host LSU on Sept. 30.

South Carolina: Spencer Rattler

Upside: The New Year’s 6. Rattler didn’t seem to be making the most of his new life in Columbia last season, and then November happened. First, Rattler tossed 6 touchdowns and threw for 438 yards in a rout of No. 5 Tennessee. Then, he ended the longest home winning streak in America with a brilliant performance in South Carolina’s 31-30 upset of No. 6 Clemson. He capped all that off with an outstanding performance, albeit in narrow defeat, in the Gator Bowl against No. 21 Notre Dame. Now, he can do something no South Carolina quarterback has ever done — throw for 3,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. More importantly, if he builds on last November, he can  do something that hasn’t been done since the program’s greatest quarterback, Connor Shaw, graduated: make the Gamecocks nationally relevant.

Downside: The turnovers mean the Gamecocks disappoint. Hopes are high in Columbia, and they should be, considering the Gamecocks closed 2022 with 2 wins over top-10 teams and a competitive bowl performance against a solid Notre Dame team. What they need to avoid are the interceptions and turnovers that plagued Rattler a season ago. The September schedule is daunting, and the Gamecocks are well-coached but have a small margin for error. So Rattler’s ball security could dictate the line between 9-3 and 6-6.

Tennessee: Joe Milton III

Upside: The New Year’s 6. Milton waited patiently for his turn, and he got it in the most unfortunate of circumstances late last year, when Hendon Hooker went down with a season- and ultimately college career-ending knee injury. Milton’s response — a 3-touchdown, flawless Orange Bowl performance in a rout of Clemson — was dreamland stuff. Milton isn’t the runner Hooker was, but Josh Heupel doesn’t need him to be: This is an offense built to get the football to playmakers in space and then stretch defenses horizontally before testing them vertically. Milton throws a beautiful deep ball, and he has the good juju of being a kid who waited his turn for this moment. The Volunteers can return to the New Year’s 6 with him under center, and with Georgia at home, Vols fans are already dreaming of more.

Downside: Offensive line issues limit Milton’s ceiling. The Volunteers lost an All-American and an All-SEC starter up front, and while there is more talent in reserve than in past seasons, there could be growing pains. Milton, in his 1st full season as a starting quarterback, could bear the brunt of those concerns, even if the revamped receiver corps — which lost Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt to the NFL –is as productive as it should be with Bru McCoy and Dont’e Thornton leading the way.

Texas A&M: Conner Weigman

Upside: A bowl game, and hope for the Fisher future. Weigman’s debut, a 4-touchdown masterpiece in a competitive loss to No. 15 Ole Miss, was the 1st of 4 starts where Weigman looked more than capable of living up to the 5-star hype. He threw 8 touchdowns last season and 0 interceptions, and he closed the season with a win over No. 6 LSU. Of course, Max Johnson, who transferred from LSU, was a big-time recruit, too, but the thought of Weigman’s arm talent and Bobby Petrino’s offensive mind should be salivating to Aggies fans, who are desperate to cash in on the huge Jimbo Fisher investment. The talent is there for Weigman, and he’s the guy with the ceiling on which Fisher and Petrino should gamble.

Downside: A tough early season schedule means he’s benched. Johnson is taking the fight for the starting job to the end of camp, and with 38 career touchdowns and just 7 interceptions, Johnson is the more experienced of the duo. Fisher isn’t going anywhere because of the largest buyout ever known to this world, but if the Aggies stumble early — whether at Miami or against Auburn or Arkansas in College Station — you can bet Fisher may switch quarterbacks to try to find a spark.

Vanderbilt: AJ Swann

Upside: A bowl game, the “most underrated QB1” label, more NFL chatter. Swann has immense arm talent, and his 10 touchdowns against 2 interceptions in just 4 starts gave Clark Lea nightmares — about why he didn’t start the young man sooner. Swann impresses NFL scouts with his ability to throw his receivers open and connect on deep shots, but he also plays intelligently and within the system. Swann was the only Power 5 freshman quarterback last season to have fewer than 7 interceptions in 200 dropbacks, and he accomplished that decisively. As the talent around him improves and he matures, he’ll only improve. Vanderbilt can go bowling this season — that’s how good Swann is.

Downside: More people won’t see him play. This won’t matter for his NFL future, of course, because if you can play, NFL scouts will find you wherever you are. But it is wild that a freshman quarterback can play as well as Swann did from every analytical measure and receive basically zero attention for it during “talking season.” Am I drinking the Kool-Aid here? Maybe. But this is a Vanderbilt squad that returns 16 starters and won 5 games a season ago. It’s hard to see that win total not being replicated with Swann as a full-season QB1 in 2023.