3,000-yard passers in 2018? Every SEC team's history and chances

Who throws for show and who throws to win? True, 3,000 yards is ultimately just a random number, but it’s one that tends to separate the good quarterbacks from the ones who really live and die by the air.

Last year, only two passers (Drew Lock and Jarrett Stidham) reached the 3,000-yard mark, but hopes are high across the SEC for 2018. So we’re taking a look at the history of the SEC schools, seeing how many 3,000-yard passers they’ve had, who did it list, and how likely they are to have a 3,000-yard passer in 2018. Here we go, listed from most likely to least likely.

Missouri

3,000-yard seasons: 7 (2 in the SEC)

Most recent: Drew Lock, 2017

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 95 percent. Lock has passed for over 3,000 yards in each of the past two seasons and led the league in passing last year with 3,964 yards. Tim Couch’s SEC mark of 4,275 passing yards could be reachable for Lock, if he stays healthy and the Tigers return to a bowl.

Ole Miss

3,000-yard seasons: 5

Most recent: Chad Kelly, 2015

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 85 percent. Rebel QBs Shea Patterson and Jordan Ta’amu combined for almost 4,000 yards passing, but with Patterson’s season-ending injury, neither QB approached 3,000 yards on his own. Given Ta’amu’s performance last season (1,682 yards in roughly half the season), he has an excellent shot at a 3,000-yard season.

Auburn

3,000-yard seasons: 2

Most recent: Jarrett Stidham, 2017

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 80 percent. Stidham was one of only two Auburn QBs to have a 3,000-yard season, and he finished with 3,158 last year. Auburn typically leans on the ground game, but with a completely revamped backfield and the potential for playing extra games — as he did in 2017 — Stidham is likely to have another 3,000-yard season this year and could threaten Dameyune Craig’s school record (3,277 in 1997).

Georgia

3,000-yard seasons: 8

Most recent: Aaron Murray, 2013

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 60 percent. Jake Fromm passed for 2,615 yards in 2017. Given that he needed some time to win the job, and that he had a legendary stable of running backs to rely on, it’s not hard to see him conjuring up another 400 passing yards in 2018. That said, UGA will blow some people out, and touted backup QB Justin Fields might steal some yardage (which we might have said last season about a back-up-to-be who ended up stealing the job).

South Carolina

3,000-yard seasons: 5

Most recent: Dylan Thompson, 2014

Chance of seeing it in ’18: 50 percent. Jake Bentley came close to the mark in 2017—missing by just 206 yards. A healthy Deebo Samuel will probably make up that difference, and as long as Carolina’s line can keep Bentley upright, he’s got a good shot.

Alabama

3,000-yard seasons: 3

Most recent: Jake Coker, 2015

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 40 percent. Tua Tagovailoa certainly has the talent to pass for 3,000 yards. But on a team that will blow out a ton of opponents and spend a lot of second halves running the football, he might not throw enough to build a beautiful stat line.

Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Vanderbilt

3,000-yard seasons: 2

Most recent: Jay Cutler, 2005

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 35 percent. Kyle Shurmur just missed the mark in 2017, passing for 2,823 yards. That said, he lost Ralph Webb, and looks pretty unlikely to play in a 13th game. He has a puncher’s shot, as his totals have improved each year, but can’t be considered likely to pass for 3,000 yards.

Mississippi State

3,000-yard seasons: 2

Most recent: Dak Prescott, 2015

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 20 percent. Nick Fitzgerald probably will get more chances to pass in Joe Moorhead’s system, but he’s still too much of a running threat to have a great chance at putting up a ton of passing yardage. He’ll go over 4,000 total yards, but a bunch might be on the ground.

Arkansas

3,000-yard seasons: 6

Most recent: Austin Allen, 2016

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 15 percent. Chad Morris’ offense is really the only reason the chances are this good. Between a couple of passers fighting for the job, a poor team unlikely to make a bowl, and a line that might get the starter injured, the odds are against Arkansas.

Texas A&M

3,000-yard seasons: 4 (2 in the SEC)

Most recent: Johnny Manziel, 2013

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 15 percent. Jimbo Fisher’s regime in College Station is still something of an unknown quality. He picks up some passers with plenty of talen — Kellen Mond and Nick Starkel had their moments last season. Starkel would be a little more likely to put up big passing numbers, but until we know more about A&M, it’s hard to pick anybody to put up big stats.

Florida

3,000-yard seasons: 8

Most recent: Tim Tebow, 2007

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 10 percent. Dan Mullen’s offense will be better — in part, because it couldn’t be worse. But there are too many moving parts here — starting with the fact he doesn’t know who his starting quarterback will be. There are plenty of playmakers on the outside, but a team that has been terrible in the air for this long probably won’t have a brilliant 2018 campaign.

LSU

3,000-yard seasons: 3

Most recent: Zach Mettenberger, 2013

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 10 percent. Much like Florida, LSU’s passing game has to get better. Myles Brennan or Joe Burrow might be able to turn around the offense. But until we see it, it’s hard to call for the Tigers to have a first-rate passing game.

Kentucky

3,000-yard seasons: 7

Most recent: Mike Hartline, 2010

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 5 percent. Kentucky ended the spring with Gunnar Hoak and JUCO transfer Terry Wilson in a QB competition. Neither has thrown an FBS pass, and with Benny Snell in the backfield, neither is likely to put up Hal Mumme-esque passing numbers.

Tennessee

3,000-yard seasons: 4

Most recent: Tyler Bray, 2012

Chance of seeing it in 2018: 5 percent. Keller Chryst apparently will be the guy, but with a defensive-minded coach who will lean heavily on running and defense, it’s hard to imagine the UT passing game blowing up in 2018.