Tennessee vs. Missouri is a top-15 showdown with plenty at stake.

The winner of this game will take over sole possession of second place in the SEC East with just 2 games remaining. The loser will have dropped its third game of the season and will fall to .500 in SEC play.

In terms of their statistical profiles, this is a relatively even matchup between 2 programs that still have a lot to prove. Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Tennessee vs. Missouri  Betting Lines

Spread: Tennessee -1.5 (DraftKings)

Total: 58.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these outstanding sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big SEC East game.

Betting trends to know for Tennessee

  • Tennessee is 6-3 against the spread this season
    • 5-1 in its last 6 games
  • The over is 5-4 in Tennessee games this season
  • Tennessee is 6-2 against the spread as a favorite this season
  • Tennessee is 1-2 against the spread on the road this season 

Tennessee has a strong ATS record this season, which is backed up by Josh Heupel’s very good ATS record overall as Tennessee’s head coach. The Vols are 15-6 against the spread since the start of the 2022 season and 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 games vs. SEC opponents. 

Betting trends to know for Missouri

  •  Missouri is 6-3 against the spread this season
    • 6-1 in its last 7 games
  • The over is 6-3 in Missouri games this season
  • Missouri is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season
  • Missouri is 3-3 against the spread at home this season

Missouri has been great against the spread so far this season, with perhaps its most notable ATS victory coming last week in Athens. The Tigers have won outright as an underdog twice already this season and could be in position to do so again this weekend.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Tennessee strength of schedule: 33rd
  • Missouri strength of schedule: 19th

 

  • Tennessee strength of record: 20th
  • Missouri strength of record: 13th

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 47% (76th percentile)
  • Missouri rushing defense success rate: 36% (89th percentile)

When Tennessee doesn’t run the ball well, it loses. That was the case in both of the Vols’ losses so far this season — the only 2 games in-which they have rushed for under 4 yards per carry in 2023. Mizzou’s run defense is a major strength. It held Georgia to just 4 yards per carry last week and is giving up just 3.64 yards per rush on the year. LSU and Kentucky are the only rushing offenses to go for more than 4 yards per carry on Mizzou’s defense this season.

  • Missouri rushing offense success rate: 44% (52nd percentile)
  • Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 32% (96th percentile)

This is a major matchup advantage for Tennessee, especially when you consider how much Missouri runs the ball. The Tigers run the ball over 50% of the time despite being much less efficient on the ground than they are in the passing game. That tendency could play directly into the Vols’ hands in this matchup. Tennessee has allowed under 100 rushing yards in 6 of its 9 games this season.

Passing Success Rate

  • Tennessee passing offense success rate: 46% (76th percentile)
  • Missouri passing defense success rate: 39% (74th percentile)

This will be an interesting battle. Joe Milton has been inconsistent this season, especially when considering what Hendon Hooker was able to accomplish a year ago. The good news for the Vols is that Milton has actually been better on the road than he has been at home. He’s also been on somewhat of a hot streak with his ball security — he now has 3 straight games without an interception, a stretch that includes road tests at Kentucky and Alabama.

Missouri has faced several above-average passing offenses this season and has still performed well. The Tigers allow fewer than 7 yards per attempt through the air (4th in the SEC).

  • Missouri passing offense success rate: 51% (92nd percentile)
  • Tennessee pass defense success rate: 38% (78th percentile)

This is the matchup Missouri needs to take advantage of if it’s going to pull off the upset. Unfortunately for the Tigers, star receiver Luther Burden is questionable with an injury. Burden is one of the most dynamic receiver threats in the country and is frankly irreplaceable in this Mizzou offense. Brady Cook completed just 14-of-30 passes vs. Georgia, but that was likely an anomaly. Cook has been hyper-efficient this season and will be a big test for this UT pass defense. 

Tennessee has not been good vs. the pass in either of its last 2 SEC games. The Vols gave up 372 yards on 39 attempts to Kentucky and 220 yards on 21 attempts to Alabama. Combined, that’s nearly 10 yards per attempt from passing attacks that have been mediocre this season. That trend is a little worrisome as the Vols prepare to face one of best passing attacks in the country.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Tennessee offensive havoc rate: 13% (87th percentile)
  • Missouri defensive havoc rate: 19% (75th percentile)

Missouri has still only recovered 1 fumble all season out of a possible 11 from its opponents. Mizzou’s strength from a havoc perspective comes from its 43 pass breakups (3 shy of the SEC lead) and 27 sacks (tied for 18th nationally). Tennessee has allowed only 15 sacks all season, which ranks 3rd in the SEC.

  • Tennessee defensive havoc rate: 19% (80th percentile)
  • Missouri offensive havoc rate: 15% (65th percentile)

Tennessee’s defense generates most of its havoc from tackles for loss and sacks, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the SEC in those categories, respectively. Missouri’s offense is more middle-of-the-pack when it comes to preventing those types of negative plays, so this could be a big advantage for the Vols. 

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Tennessee points scored per opportunity: 3.72 (42nd percentile)
  • Missouri points allowed per opportunity: 4.27 (21st percentile)

Simply put, Tennessee has to be more efficient in this area. The main culprit: settling for field goals. The Vols have kicked a field goal on 34.2% of its red zone trips this season, which is the highest mark in the SEC entering Week 11. Tennessee’s touchdown percentage on red zone trips is just 51.22% — dead last in the SEC and 113th nationally. Tennessee is also just 4-of-14 on 4th down this season — amongst SEC teams, only Kentucky (1-for-7) has been worse. On the other side, Mizzou’s defense has conceded 9-of-15 4th-down attempts in 2023.

  • Missouri points scored per opportunity: 4.5 (83rd percentile)
  • Tennessee points allowed per opportunity: 2.86 (92nd percentile)

This is another area in-which Mizzou could suffer if Burden isn’t able to play. Burden has scored 7 of Mizzou’s 18 passing touchdowns and has caught 34% of the Tigers’ completions this season. Theo Wease and Mookie Cooper are the only other pass-catchers on the team with more than 10 receptions this season. Without a go-to receiver or an efficient running game, I’d be worried about what Mizzou can do in the red zone.

Defensively, Tennessee has been amazing on 4th down. The Vols have allowed conversions on just 5-of-21 4th down attempts in 2023. That’s the best conversion rate in the country among teams who have faced at least 20 attempts. Tennessee has also done a good job of forcing field goals in the red zone (10 field goals on 27 trips).

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Tennessee offense: 26th
  • Tennessee defense: 28th
  • Tennessee special teams: 41st 

 

  • Missouri offense: 15th
  • Missouri defense: 34th
  • Missouri special teams: 98th 

ESPN SP+ 

  • Tennessee offense: 14th
  • Tennessee defense: 20th
  • Tennessee special teams: 32nd 

 

  • Missouri offense: 22nd
  • Missouri defense: 28th
  • Missouri special teams: 79th

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.