No, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Yes, I think it would take a miracle and then some.

UCF’s Playoff chances look slim right now. Like, real slim.

That’s not really much of a debate considering that no Playoff team was ranked lower than ninth after the third Playoff ranking. Expecting a Group of 5 team to break that barrier seems ambitious. UCF obviously entered last week at No. 11, which was the highest-ranked Group of 5 spot ever, but still not exactly “in the hunt.”

After the Knights hosted College GameDay and took down their first ranked foe of the season, many are wondering what exactly it would take for them to shock the world and make the Playoff. To be blunt, a lot. Any notion that unbeaten UCF controls its fate is gone.

If the Knights are somehow, someway going to make the Playoff, here’s how it’ll happen:

At least 3 Power 5 conference champs with multiple losses

The more likely scenario is that we have 5 Power 5 conference champs (and Notre Dame) with 1 or fewer losses. As it stands, all of these teams can make that happen:

  • ACC — Clemson
  • Big 12 — Oklahoma
  • Big Ten — Michigan/Ohio State
  • SEC — Alabama/Georgia
  • Pac-12 — Washington State

Let’s not forget that while it has been possible, we have yet to see a 2-loss team make the field. Does the fact that a total of four 2-loss teams have been ranked ahead of the Knights bode well for them? No, but it would at least make this a discussion.

I said that at least 3 Power 5 conference champs need multiple losses because in this scenario, Notre Dame isn’t even a part of that conversation without the chance to play for a conference title. Alabama and Clemson are making the field over UCF with 1 loss, with or without a conference title, which means we’re really talking about 1 available spot here. That spot will go to any 1-loss Power 5 conference champ over UCF.

We’ve still yet to see one of those get left out of the field. Even a team as flawed as 1-loss Ohio State would still have a better shot than UCF because it’ll have at least 2 wins better than the unbeaten Knights.

And let’s be honest. If Georgia stumbles against Georgia Tech but takes down unbeaten Alabama, the 2-loss Dawgs are still making the field over UCF. Also, as much as UCF fans would point out Clemson potentially losing to Pitt as something that should help the Knights, the 1-loss Tigers would still get the edge if it came down to that (though Clemson losses to Pitt and South Carolina to end the season would open the door).

Upsets in the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 title games are the clearest way for UCF to make the field. Utah, Northwestern and maybe West Virginia (or Texas?) are going to have some big-time fans down in Orlando.

And obviously rooting for USC makes a lot of sense for UCF

The odds aren’t great that it happens, but a 1-loss Notre Dame team that doesn’t have a chance to improve its résumé in the final 2 weeks is on the outside looking in. That’s all the more reason for UCF to pray for a miracle in Los Angeles on Saturday night.

Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

I actually think 1-loss Notre Dame would have a legitimate argument that it should be ranked ahead of UCF because the Irish still beat at least 2 teams (Michigan and Syracuse) that will finish ranked higher than any of the Knights’ opponents. The Irish also beat Big Ten West champion Northwestern. But the only Playoff team that failed to win its regular-season finale and didn’t play for a conference title game was 2017 Alabama. And as you recall, the Tide came into that ranked No. 1 and still barely made the field ahead of a 2-loss conference champ.

I’m not saying it’ll happen, but unbeaten UCF making the field over 1-loss Notre Dame would be a massive victory for the Group of 5. It would kill the notion that brands are a key factor in selecting Playoff teams. It would also probably prompt the Irish to finally at least attempt to crash the Power 5 party.

Speaking of crashing the party …

UCF is only doing that if it pummels teams in its final 2 weeks. Like, no more Memphis-type performances. Two more Cincinnati-type wins. The fact that the Knights won by 25 in their first matchup against a ranked team this year certainly didn’t hurt.

But the blowout factor is an obvious prerequisite to this whole thing. Closing the year with 3 wins against winning teams — something the Knights have rarely faced this year — by at least 3 scores would help. I’m not saying they should be throwing it all over the place if they’re up by 40 against USF, but there are worse ideas.

That’s interesting because that has to be in the back of Josh Heupel’s mind when he’s calling plays. Simply escaping with wins isn’t good enough. UCF has a Black Friday game on ESPN and an AAC title game on ABC the following Saturday. That’s 3 consecutive games to end the season with a massive audience, much of whom will probably be waiting to pile on if UCF looks like anything less than a juggernaut.

Style points count.

So can it actually happen?

Never say never, but I’d still be stunned if it did. That’s not taking away from UCF’s streak, which is an an unbelievable feat for anyone, much less for a program whose senior class endured at a winless season as freshmen.

The two biggest things working against UCF this year are the lack of upsets among the top 7 teams in November, as well as the AAC having a down year. Those are things outside of UCF’s control, but this is still a system that just allowed a Group of 5 team to earn its first top 10 ranking. Ever. To get into the top 4, it’s going to take a bunch of factors outside of UCF’s control actually shaping up.

UCF’s chance at making the field seem dependent on 2018 finishing like 2007. “The Year of the Upset” was pure madness down the stretch. The No. 1 and No. 2 teams fell in 2 of the last 3 weekends of the regular season. In 7 of the final 9 weeks of the regular season, the No. 2 team in America lost. Wild.

Obviously the window for craziness is closing on 2018. There are only 2 more weeks for upsets galore, meaning it’s going to take a historical dosage of unpredictability to even give UCF a chance.

But then again, the chances of 23 in a row were also once slim to none.