Way-too-early quarterback projections for 2017 in the SEC East
Let’s face it, folks. It hasn’t been a banner year in the SEC at the game’s most important position. We can only hope that 2017 is better.
The highest-rated quarterback in the conference this season is Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs, although he’s currently just 20th nationally. While he’s tied for the league lead in interceptions, no other QB has bettered his mark of 152.6.
A year ago, there were three signal callers in the SEC that posted a rating of 150 or higher. In 2014, four. In 2013, five. Dobbs is the only one — not even Chad Kelly of Ole Miss prior to his knee injury — this time around. This doesn’t appear to be a trend across the country, either. In 2013, there were 24 in America. This season, 23.
While the lines between quarterback play and team success aren’t necessarily parallel, they do run the same direction. It’s undeniable that the conference is down in 2016. The first step to getting back on top is better passing performances.
Here’s a snapshot of each team in the East division at QB for 2017. Program by program, is there reason for optimism or cause or concern?
Florida
The Gators have flip-flopped back and forth between Luke Del Rio and Austin Appleby, and neither one of them proved to be the answer.
While Appleby is a graduate transfer only in Gainesville for a year, Del Rio is just a sophomore and has two seasons of eligibility left. Not only did he appear to be injury prone, but his TD-to-INT ratio of 8-to-8 leaves a lot to be desired.
Second-year coach Jim McElwain managed to redshirt both Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask despite Del Rio and Appleby disappointing as a duo, so it’s safe to assume that they’ll compete for the starting job in 2017 — Del Rio would inspire no confidence in the UF faithful — after a year of adjusting to collegiate life.
Franks appears to have the highest ceiling but also the lowest floor. Trask isn’t the same level of athlete, yet he seems to be the superior thrower.
Georgia
It didn’t take long for five-star recruit Jacob Eason to unseat incumbent Greyson Lambert, although the results weren’t all that different.
With Lambert at the controls in 2015, the Bulldogs were the No. 10 passing offense in the SEC with a team TD-to-INT ratio of 14-to-8. This season with Eason (below), they are again 10th and have an almost identical ratio of 14-to-9.
Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
There’s no denying Eason’s physical tools. He has ideal size to survey the field comfortably from the pocket. His arm is big enough to make any throw — that touchdown pass to Riley Ridley late in the Tennessee game was one of the plays of the year — on the field. However, he has a long way to go in terms of touch and accuracy.
Eason requires better protection and a more consistent receiving corps. Losing Nick Chubb and Sony Michel to the NFL would be a blow, though.
Kentucky
With Patrick Towles having transferred to Boston College, the quarterback position in Lexington was supposed to be all about Drew Barker.
Statistically, he was awesome in the season opener hosting Southern Miss. But a week later, he was atrocious at Florida — the Wildcats started 0-2. Barker then suffered a back injury vs. New Mexico State and made way for Stephen Johnson.
Fourth-year coach Mark Stoops is taking UK bowling for the first time on his watch, and Johnson is at least partially responsible for a 7-3 finish down the stretch. That being said, what he does best of all is hand off to Stanley “Boom” Williams and Benny Snell, who have both eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau this year.
Barker’s injury was severe, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be healthy enough to compete for the job again. Johnson likely has the inside track.
Missouri
No quarterback in the conference has attempted or completed more passes in 2016 than Drew Lock, who is also No. 1 in yards passing.
That being said, it didn’t lead to a lot of success on the field for the Tigers. Lock put up big numbers on a few bad defenses, but against quality competition — this league is never short on blue-chip defenders — he tended to struggle.
Still, he’s just a sophomore. The tools are there for Lock to develop into a very good passer if he gets more help around him. Freshman running back Damarea Crockett really started to emerge as the schedule progressed and can help take some of the pressure off the passing game. Hopefully, junior receiver J’Mon Moore returns to Mizzou.
Lock also needs his defense to be more effective. Playing from behind all the time led to a lot of his mistakes this season.
South Carolina
Brandon McIlwain had his chance, but ultimately the true freshman was unseated and outplayed by a member of his own recruiting class.
While McIlwain was a two-sport star who got a lot of publicity on his way to Columbia, Jake Bentley was an under-the-radar prospect and not expected to contribute immediately. But right now, Bentley is the future for the Gamecocks.
Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports
More effective as a runner than a passer — the same was said last year of Lorenzo Nunez, who just announced his transfer — McIlwain only completes 52.5 percent of his passes and seems to have a very raw skill set. Bentley (above), on the other hand, is a 63.3-percent passer and gives every impression that he’s the son of a coach, which he is.
Remember, McIlwain is also an elite baseball prospect. Will he be open to a position change just to stick with football? He might have to be.
Tennessee
The aforementioned Dobbs is the Alpha and the Omega offensively for the Volunteers, even if he did fail to win the East.
Dobbs leads the league with 26 touchdown passes — adding 9 more as a rusher, too — and improved his play once the Jalen Hurd drama was in the rearview mirror. Nevertheless, he fired at least one pick in each of his first nine games.
Next in line is Quinten Dormady, who is a rising junior but doesn’t have much of a résumé at this point. Almost entirely in mop-up duty, he’s 24-of-39 passing for 357 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs. With only 8 yards on 11 attempts, there’s little reason to believe he can be anywhere near the kind of ground gainer that Dobbs is.
While Jarrett Guarantano is one recruiting cycle behind Dormady, he was a higher-rated prospect and might be the presumptive heir after Dobbs.
Vanderbilt
Thrown to the wolves last year as a freshman, Kyle Shurmur didn’t show much improvement a few games into his sophomore campaign.
That being said, he finished the season on a two-game winning streak — getting the Commodores to a bowl game in the process — and may have finally turned the corner. He was impressive in an upset of Tennessee with 416 yards passing.
Running back Ralph Webb is Vandy’s all-time leading rusher after only three years, so he doesn’t have anything left to prove in college and could depart early for the pros. If that happens, it will be up to Shurmur to keep the ‘Dores trending in the right direction offensively. One way or another, a downfield threat or two must emerge.
The top five pass catchers on the roster are three juniors and two freshmen, so Shurmur should be able build some continuity.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
